::: TSR Weekly Report
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2013-10-20 | NO.17(41) epaper |
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface and Japan Policy
Beijing-Tokyo Ties ‘Unlikely to Recover Soon’ (2013-10-16)
(China Daily) Sino-Japanese relations are unlikely to improve anytime soon if Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's speech to his country's parliament is any indication, a Chinese expert said. 

Japan's Leader Rejects Visit to War Shrine (2013-10-17)
(New York Times, By Martin Fackler) For a third time this year, Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, refused supporters’ calls to visit a controversial Tokyo war shrine, sending a ceremonial offering instead in an apparent effort to avoid angering Asian neighbors including China.

Chinese Official Held Secret Talks in Japan, Reports Say (2013-10-17)
(AFP) For a third time this year, Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, refused supporters’ calls to visit a controversial Tokyo war shrine, sending a ceremonial offering instead in an apparent effort to avoid angering Asian neighbors including China.
South China Sea Disputes and Other Regional Issues
Vietnam Vows to Boost Political Ties with China in Visit (2013-10-15)
(Bloomberg) Vietnam pledged to boost “political trust” with China during Premier Li Keqiang’s visit, as the two Communist countries focus on building economic ties and calming territorial tensions.

China Bypasses American ‘New Silk Road’ with Two of Its Own (2013-10-14)
(Washington Post, By Simon Denyer) Armed with tens of billions of dollars in investment deals and romantic tales of ancient explorers, Chinese President Xi Jinping has spent much of the past month promoting his vision of two new “Silk Roads” to connect his country to the West and secure its energy supplies.

India, China Near Pact Aimed at Keeping Lid on Border Tension
 (2013-10-18)
(Reuters, By Sanjeev Miglani) India and China are close to an agreement to stop tension on their contested border touching of confrontation while they try to figure out a way to break decades-old stalemate on overlapping claims to long stretches of the Himalaya. 
U.S. Pivot to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Of Symbols and Substance (2013-10-09)
(PacNet #76, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Elina Noor) Obama arguably missed his chance not only to push the TPP but also take on board first-hand ground sentiment on the issue here. That said, US-Malaysia relations will remain unperturbed by Obama’s trip cancellation.

Obama's Summit Absence Needs to Be Put in Perspective
 (2013-10-15)
(PacNet #76A, Pacific Forum, CSIS, By Thitinan Pongsudhirak) When all the huff and puff of the summits subsides, it will be clear that Southeast Asia is not about all China and no US or all US and no China. It is about some of both in a moving balance that sometimes will appear elusive and multidirectional.

Can We Save Taiwan?
 (2013-10-18)
(National Interest, By Elbridge Colby)From a strategic perspective, abandoning Taiwan would certainly send an immensely powerful signal throughout Asia (and probably the world) about the direction of our policy and the sturdiness of our guarantees, with hard to predict but almost certainly negative implications for our position in the world’s most dynamic region.

John Kerry on Forging a Pacific Future
 (2013-10-18)
(LA Times, By John F. Kerry) The rebalancing of our foreign policy priorities in Asia is neither a work completed nor an effort interrupted. It is a daily march of progress to be measured in miles and years, not yards and days. But the march is underway, and America and Asia are stronger because of it. 
DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
PRC Recognition of ROC Good Enough Say Most Taiwanese (2013-10-11)
(TISR) According to the latest Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey (in Chinese), 73.3 percent of Taiwanese believe that it would be unnecessary for Taiwan to change its name to become an independent country, if the PRC government were to recognize the Republic of China. Only 13.5 percent of respondents believed that a name change would still be necessary.

China Crosses off APEC As Venue for Cross-Strait Meeting (2013-10-17)
(CNA) Chances are slim that the leaders of Taiwan and China will meet on the sidelines at a future APEC forum after a Chinese official said that such a meeting need not take place at international events.

China Visit under Evaluation: MAC Head (2013-10-17)
(CNA) MAC chief Wang Yu-chi said that a plan for him to visit China and his Chinese counterpart to visit Taiwan is still being evaluated.

Cross-Strait Relations Not International but ‘Special,’ Ma Stresses (2013-10-18)
(CNA) President Ma Ying-jeou said that the relationship between Taiwan and China is not an international one but a “special” one, citing the Republic of China Constitution, which defines the R.O.C. as one sovereign country of which mainland China is a part.

Exchanging of Offices with Beijing a ‘Political’ Issue
 (2013-10-19)
(CNA) President Ma Ying-jeou said that the exchange of representative offices between Taiwan and mainland China is political in nature, apparently responding to Chinese criticism that Taiwan has avoided political issues when pursuing relations between the two sides.

Taiwan Target of Chinese Political Warfare: US Study
 (2013-10-20)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Taiwan is the primary target of a Chinese campaign of political warfare, according to a new study by a Washington-based think tank.

Tsai's Office Dismisses Rumors about China Visit (2013-10-17)
(Taipei Times) The office of former DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen denied a KMT lawmaker’s comment that Tsai will visit China next month, saying that the speculation was “baseless.”

Divided Views on DPP's China Efforts
 (2013-10-18)
(Taipei Times) Participants in a forum organized by the DPP supported the party’s efforts to promote democratization in China, but appeared to be divided on the possible outcome of those efforts and what impact they would have on Taiwan. 

Settling in for the Long Haul: Stability with Chinese Characteristics (2013-10-08)
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, By Alan D. Romberg) both KMT and DPP began to position themselves not only for the 2014 seven-in-one local elections, but also for the 2016 presidential contest. Cross-Strait political relations emerged as an increasingly visible aspect of that positioning.

Political Scandal in Taiwan Good Reason to Focus on Opposition's Plans (2013-10-10)
(China Brief 13(20), By David Cohen) Beijing has good reason to prepare for a DPP presidency, but if it allows the DPP to demonstrate that it can deal with the mainland, it risks depriving Ma of his strongest remaining political advantage.

PLA and Military Balance
The Dragon's Spear: China's Asymmetric Strategy (2013-10-17)
(YaleGlobal, By Loro Horta) Asymmetric strategies are the dominant force of China’s military, even as the country invests in and builds technological capability.

Taiwan Strait Close to Being ‘Epicenter of Crisis’: Analyst (2013-10-18)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) The Taiwan Strait may be on the verge of becoming an “epicenter of crisis,” a new paper by Dean Cheng, a China expert at the Heritage Foundation China, says.

Oil Supplies WIll Play Key Role in Conflict: US Report
 (2013-10-19)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) Oil and fuel supplies would put “significant constraints” on both China and Taiwan in case of an air war between the two countries, a new report published by the US Council on Foreign Relations said. 
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey, First Half of October 2013 (2013-10-11)
(TISR) According to the latest Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey (in Chinese), President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating declined by 0.8 percentage point during the first ten days of October to 13.7 percent. The president's disapproval rating also dropped shedding 1.4 percentage points bringing it to 71.7 percent.

Taiwan Premier Survives Legislative No-Confidence Vote
 (2013-10-15)
(Bloomberg) Taiwan Premier Jiang Yi-huah survived a no-confidence vote brought by opposition lawmakers who accused him of violating the constitution over attempts to oust the leader of parliament.

DPP Discord After Failure of No-Confidence Motion
 (2013-10-16)
(China Post) Conflicting voices and a heated debate erupted within the DPP after its attempt to overthrow the Cabinet failed and the no-confidence vote was denied by over half of the Legislature.

Party Identification Tracking Analysis in Taiwan, September 2013 (2013-10-03)
(TISR) Taiwan Indicators Survey Research released its September survey (in Chinese) on the public's party identities. Of those surveyed, 30.5% self-identified as supporters of the KMT or other Pan-Blue parties, 27.5% expressed support for the DPP or other Pan-Green parties, and 38.0% self-identified as independent.

US Congress Members Back Taiwan-US Trade Pact (2013-10-14)
(Taipei Times) Among the 25 members supporting Taiwan's participation in the TPP were Robert Menendez, the chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and US House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

China Gives EU Warning on Cozying Up to Taiwan (2013-10-14)
(AP) Beijing raised objections to a move by the European Parliament to build closer trade ties with Taiwan, saying it opposes the development of any official ties between the sides.

Ma Remarks Could Rule Out US Intervention: Academic (2013-10-14)
(Taipei Times) President Ma Ying-jeou’s statement that cross-strait relations are “not international relations” has further weakened Taiwan’s sovereignty and was meant as a hint for the US and Japan not to interfere in cross-strait issues, a local academic said.

Taiwan Needs to Diversify across Region: Campbell
 (2013-10-16)
(Taipei Times) While applauding the cross-strait rapprochement of recent years under President Ma Ying-jeou administration, Kurt Campbell reminded Taiwan that its best strategic interests lie in deeper economic relationships with other countries in Asia. 
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
The Road to the Third Plenum (2013-10-08)
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, By Alice L. Miller) Since the 18th Party Congress, the Xi leadership has launched two carefully orchestrated, interrelated campaigns to demonstrate its seriousness about eradicating corruption and to improve public support for the regime. The twin campaigns appear aimed at paving the way to economic and government reforms at the 18th Central Committee’s upcoming Third Plenum.

China's Growth Depends on Political Calibrations (2013-10-18)
(Wall Street Journal, By Bob Davis) Beijing could move ahead with changes that increase costs for companies, such as wage increases, social-welfare taxes and pollution controls. But if it doesn't simultaneously make changes that lift productivity, such as opening sectors to private investment that are now dominated by state-owned giants, the effect could be slower growth.

'De-Americanized' World Needed After US Government Shutdown: Beijing
 (2013-10-14)
(AFP) While US politicians grapple with how to reopen their shuttered government and avoid a potentially disastrous default on their debt, the world should consider ‘de-Americanizing’, a commentary by Xinhua news agency said. 
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