::: TSR Weekly Report
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2020-01-25 | NO.44(1) epaper |
Note to Readers
New Publication Kingsley Edney, Stanley Rosen, and Ying Zhu, Soft Power With Chinese Characteristics: China’s Campaign for Hearts and Minds (1st Edition) (Routledge)
Cross-Strait Relations
Taiwan Not Part of China as Claimed by Myanmar, Beijing: MOFA (2020-01-19)
(CNA, By Emerson Lim) Taiwan's foreign ministry on Sunday pushed back against a joint statement between Beijing and Myanmar that said Taiwan was undisputedly part of China's territory. <Accessed 2020-01-20>

Leaked Map Shows China Plans to Invade S. Taiwan After Taking Kinmen, Penghu
 (2020-01-20)
(Taiwan News, By Keoni Everington) A photo surfaced Sunday (Jan. 19) on Weibo showing People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers sitting next to a map of Taiwan that appears to indicate a southerly route for China's invasion of Taiwan, first going through Kinmen and Penghu, before landing troops in southern Taiwan. <Accessed 2020-01-20>

Taipei March Urges Protection for HK Protesters (2020-01-20)
(Taipei Times, By Wu Su-wei and Dennis Xie) About 100 people marched in Taipei yesterday, demanding that the government amend the law to ensure the rights and well-being of pro-democracy Hong Kong protesters if they come to Taiwan. <Accessed 2020-01-20>

Treading Choppy Waters: Cross-Strait Relations in Taiwan’s 2020 Presidential Election (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Pam Kennedy) In the next four years, both sides of the strait will need to proceed with care. Beijing must understand that January 11 signaled voters’ approval for Tsai to implement her policies, including on cross-strait relations, despite (and to some extent because of) outside pressure. Whether or not Beijing sees this democratic process as legitimate, it cannot avoid the reality that voters did not prefer a closer relationship with the mainland this time. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

CCP Tactics Likely to Continue: Report (2020-01-21)
(Taipei Times, By Aaron Tu and Dennis Xie) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is likely to continue its carrot-and-stick approach toward Taiwan, but would become more polarizing, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research think tank said in a report last week. <Accessed 2020-01-27>

Tsai Could Meet Xi, But Only as Equals (2020-01-22)
(Taipei Times/CNA) President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on Monday said that she would consider meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) as long as it was on an equal footing. <Accessed 2020-01-22>

President Urges China to Share Wuhan Virus Information (2020-01-22)
(CNA, By Justine Su, Chen Chun-hua and Evelyn Kao) President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) called on China Wednesday to inform Taiwan about the spread of a deadly new coronavirus in the Chinese city of Wuhan and said the World Health Organization (WHO) should not exclude Taiwan from the global efforts to contain the virus. <Accessed 2020-01-22> 

Taipei Complains to World Health Organisation after Coronavirus Case Is Classed as ‘Taiwan, China’ (2020-01-23)
(South China Morning Post, By Lawrence Chung) Taiwan has complained about being classed as part of China by the World Health Organisation after reporting its first case of the novel coronavirus case that has claimed 17 lives and infected hundreds more. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Chinese Military Aircraft Fly Close to Taiwan, Island’s Defence Ministry Says (2020-01-23)
(South China Morning Post, By Lawrence Chung) A group of military aircraft from mainland China flew close to the southernmost tip of Taiwan on Thursday, just a week after President Tsai Ing-wen angered Beijing by saying the island was an independent country. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Ministry Protests China Listing in WHO Report (2020-01-24)
(Taipei Times, By Lin Chia-nan and Chen Ching-min) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday lodged a protest with the WHO for listing a coronavirus infection in Taiwan as part of China’s infection cases. <Accessed 2020-01-24>

Chinese Warplanes Pass Through Bashi Channel (2020-01-24)
(Taipei Times/Reuters) Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft yesterday passed through the narrow Bashi Channel to the south of Taiwan on a long-range exercise, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) said, the first publicized drills near the nation since elections earlier this month. <Accessed 2020-01-24> 
U.S.-Taiwan Relations
Lockheed Martin Awarded $32.9 Million Pentagon Contract for Taiwan’s F-16 Upgrade Program (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Franz-Stefan Gady) U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin has won a $32.9 million contract modification for logistics support to the Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) F-16 Peace Phoenix Rising program, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) announced on January 14. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

Taiwan's January 2020 Election: The American Factor in President Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party's Big Win (2020-01-23)
(Taiwan Insight, By John F. Copper) It coincides closely with President Tsai’s Ing-wen popularity leaping from a very low point in the wake of the 2018 mid-term election to winning numbers, and her re-election by a good margin in January this year. Clearly the US with Donald Trump as president was in some part accountable for both. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

WUHAN VIRUS / U.S. Calls for Taiwan's Inclusion in WHO Amid Epidemic Threat (2020-01-23)
(CNA, By Chiang Ching-yeh, Tseng Ting-hsuan, and Lee Hsin-Yin) A senior American State Department official on Wednesday called for Taiwan's inclusion in the World Health Organization (WHO) amid escalation of a deadly new coronavirus in the Chinese city of Wuhan and its spread to other countries. <Accessed 2020-01-26>
Taiwan's Domestic Politics and Foreign Relations
Taiwan's Domestic Politics

Taiwan Needs More Than Election Victories to Fend Off China (2020-01-21)
(Foreign Policy, By Philip Caruso) Taiwan’s military is largely based outside of the urban areas in which 79 percent of Taiwan’s population lives, which would be the focus of any PLA invasion. Delaying the PLA in Taiwan’s cities will in turn require willing Taiwanese citizens to prepare for and resist those attacks. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

The Taiwan Election’s Other Big Winner: Ko Wen-je’s Taiwan People’s Party (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Nick Aspinwall) The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), created last August by Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, gained five legislative seats after winning almost 1.6 million votes (11.2 percent) in Taiwan’s party list contest. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

KMT to Set Up Committee to Implement Party Reform (2020-01-23)
(CNA, By Liu Kuan-ting, Wang Cheng-chung, and Chiang Yi-ching) The decision-making body of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) on Wednesday approved a proposal to establish a committee to enact reforms within the party, following its crushing defeat in Taiwan's general elections on Jan. 11. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Lawmaker Chiang Chi-chen Announces KMT Chairmanship Bid (2020-01-25)
(CNA, By Su Mu-chun and Elizabeth Hsu) Apart from Chiang Chi-chen (江啟臣), former KMT Vice Chairman Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌), National Taiwan University Professor Chang Ya-chung (張亞中), and Blue Sky Action Alliance Chairman Wu Chih-chang (武之璋) have also said they will vie for the post. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Japanese Petition Against China's Unification of Taiwan (2020-01-20)
(Taiwan News, By Ching-Tse Cheng) Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) gathered on the streets of Tokyo Sunday (Jan. 19) to urge support for a petition against Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping's (習近平) visit to Japan and Beijing's attempt to unify Taiwan. <Accessed 2020-01-20> 

MOFA Official Meets with Marshall Islands President (2020-01-20)
(CNA, By Emerson Lim) Deputy Foreign Minister Hsu Szu-chien (徐斯儉) met with Marshall Islands President David Kabua on Monday after attending his inauguration to reaffirm their shared values and deepen bilateral relations. <Accessed 2020-01-20> 

What’s Next for Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy in Tsai’s Second Term? (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Prashanth Parameswaran) But beyond that, there is room for some expansion of policy areas that would enhance the NSP’s attractiveness to the region relative to those of other Indo-Pacific actors by playing to Taiwan’s strengths, be it on education, democracy, or approaches to certain non-traditional security challenges. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

Taiwan Only Affected Country Not Invited to WHO Coronavirus Discussion (2020-01-22)
(Taiwan News, By Matthew Strong) Taiwan is the only country with a case of China coronavirus that has not been invited to a World Health Organization (WHO) discussion of the outbreak, reports said Wednesday (Jan. 22). <Accessed 2020-01-22> 

Tsai Writes to Pope Francis About Chinese Pressure (2020-01-22)
(Taipei Times/Reuters) President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has written to Pope Francis to complain about Chinese pressure on the nation, saying that Beijing aims to threaten its democracy and freedom. <Accessed 2020-01-22>

Australia Denies Using Chinese Spy Case to Influence Taiwan Elections (2020-01-22)
(CNA, By Chen Yun-yu, Elaine Hou and Emerson Lim) The Australian representative office in Taipei said Tuesday that its government's disclosure of a case involving a self-confessed spy from China, who was seeking asylum in Canberra late last year, was not aimed at influencing Taiwan's general elections, as has been alleged. <Accessed 2020-01-22> 

The Case for a Taiwan Sovereign Wealth Fund (2020-01-23)
(East Asia Forum, By Shaokai Fan) As President Tsai Ing-wen begins her second term, her government should strongly consider both the financial possibilities and the wide-ranging intangible benefits that an SWF can bring. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Indian Envoy Praises Ties with Taiwan on India Republic Day (2020-01-23)
(CNA, By Chiang Yi-ching) India's top envoy to Taiwan lauded the relationship between the two countries Wednesday at a reception in Taipei in celebration of India's 71st Republic Day. <Accessed 2020-01-26>
U.S.-China Relations
Trump’s China Deal Creates Collateral Damage for Tech Firms (2020-01-20)
(New York Times, By Ana Swanson and Cecilia Kang) Micron secured some gains from the China deal but it may end up suffering bigger losses from the broader U.S.-China battle. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

China, US Sign ‘Historic’ Trade Deal
 (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Shannon Tiezzi) The “Phase One” U.S.-China trade deal was officially inked on Wednesday, in a ceremony featuring U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. A White House press release touted the deal as a “historic agreement” that “will begin to rebalance our vital trade partnership with China” and “will be an incredible boost for American businesses, farmers, manufacturers, and innovators.” <Accessed 2020-01-21>

No Date For Phase-Two Talks With U.S., Says China Trade Team Member (2020-01-21)
(Bloomberg) The U.S. and China haven’t set a timetable for the next phase of their trade negotiations, according to an official directly involved in the talks. The focus for now is on implementing the phase-one deal, Ning Jizhe said Tuesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. <Accessed 2020-01-27>

China Poised to Buy More From U.S., at the Expense of U.S. Allies (2020-01-23)
(New York Times, By Keith Bradsher) The trade truce may have eased tensions between the world’s two largest economies, but European and Latin American officials are worried it will come at a cost. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

U.S. State Department Appoints Envoy to Counter Chinese Influence at the U.N. (2020-01-23)
(Foreign Policy, By Colum Lynch) U.S. State Department has appointed a new special envoy with a mandate to stall China’s growing influence at the United Nations and other international organizations that the Trump administration has, until now, largely snubbed or ignored, according to several U.S. sources. <Accessed 2020-01-23>

Pomp and Circumstance: Interpreting the Signing Ceremony of the US-China Trade Deal (2020-01-23)
(The Diplomat, By Bonnie Girard) Liu’s rank has been a source of criticism against the United States president. Why did Trump agree to sign a deal with someone not equal to his own political status? Why didn’t the two key American negotiators, Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative, or Steve Mnuchin, the U.S. treasury secretary, sign the deal, with Trump looking benevolently on? <Accessed 2020-01-23>
China's Domestic Politics and Foreign Relations
Domestic Politics in Mainland China

China’s 2019 Economic Growth Weakened Amid Trade War (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Joe McDonald) China’s economic growth sank to a new multi-decade low in 2019 as Beijing fought a tariff war with Washington, but forecasters said a U.S.-Chinese trade truce might help to revive consumer and business activity. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

China Sentences Ex-Interpol Chief to 13 Years for Bribes (2020-01-23)
(The Diplomat, By Associated Press) China has sentenced the former president of Interpol, Meng Hongwei, to 13 years and six months in prison on charges of accepting more than $2 million in bribes. <Accessed 2020-01-23>

In Coronavirus, a ‘Battle’ That Could Humble China’s Strongman (2020-01-26)
(New York Times, By Steven Lee Myers and Chris Buckley) With Xi Jinping firmly in control, the Chinese government has stepped up its response to the Wuhan crisis, but the effort has been plagued by bureaucracy and a lack of transparency. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Beijing and Hong Kong

Yellow or Blue? In Hong Kong, Businesses Choose Political Sides (2020-01-19)
(New York Times, By Hannah Beech) Shops and restaurants are now being labeled either yellow, to note support for the city’s protest movement, or blue, in support of the police. The move is having a big economic impact. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Xi Isn’t Tightening China’s Grip on Hong Kong, Carrie Lam Says (2020-01-21)
(Bloomberg, By Haslinda Amin, Dandan Li, and Iain Marlow) Chinese President Xi Jinping offered personal assurances that he wouldn’t use protests in Hong Kong as an excuse to increase Beijing’s control over the city, Chief Executive Carrie Lam said, as she used a World Economic Forum visit to try and reassure global investors. <Accessed 2020-01-27>

Internationalized Autonomy: Re-Discovering the West’s Stake in Hong Kong
 (2020-01-23)
(The Diplomat, By Brian C.H. Fong) Instead, it is a much more complicated geopolitical issue involving great power competition — the across-the-board opposition from Western countries (such as the G-7 members) against the Extradition Bill, the rise of the Hong Kong issue as a factor in U.S.-China trade negotiations, the enactment of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act by the U.S. Congress, among others, have all pointed to the international dimension of Hong Kong’s autonomy. <Accessed 2020-01-23>

Hong Kong Leader Declares Virus Emergency, Halts Official Visits to Mainland China (2020-01-25)
(Reuters, By Felix Tam and Jessie Pang) Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam declared a virus emergency on Saturday, announcing measures to limit links with mainland China and prevent the spread of the new coronavirus. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

China's Foreign Relations

Xi Seeks to Boost Belt and Road With Myanmar Visit (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Eleanor Albert) Renewing ties between the two neighbors appears to be beneficial for both leaders as Xi Jinping seeks to revitalize projects linking China to the Bay of Bengal under his Belt and Road Initiative and as Aung San Suu Kyi looks to bolster diplomatic ties amid the West’s condemnation and isolation over the treatment of Rohingya, an Muslim ethnic minority in southwestern Rakhine state. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

Exporting China’s Social Credit System to Central Asia (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Yau Tsz Yan) But data from these cameras are certainly helpful in generating a base set of information which China can easily access, for more than speeding tickets. Just as it is impossible for Chinese nationals to hide, many countries are becoming entangled. It is not easy for a government to say no if China is offering these systems for free, or half the price. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

US-China Trade Deal Won’t Affect European Firms in China, Xi Jinping Tells Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron (2020-01-22)
(South China Morning Post, By Stuart Lau) Chinese President Xi Jinping has sought to reassure European companies that their interests in the world’s second-largest economy will not suffer as a result of Beijing’s trade deal with the United States, while also calling for fair treatment of Chinese firms operating in Europe. <Accessed 2020-01-26>
Territorial Disputes, the Korean Peninsula, and Other Regional Issues
Territorial Disputes

Are China’s South China Sea Artificial Islands Militarily Significant and Useful? (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Ankit Panda) China’s artificial islands have for too long been taken as the physical manifestation of Beijing’s irredentism and revisionism in the South China Sea and while their primary purpose may be the assertion of dubious sovereignty claims, they’re more likely than not to be a serious capability in wartime. It’s past time for the conventional wisdom on the South China Sea to take this seriously. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

Exclusive: US Navy Footage of Warships’ Near Collision in South China Sea
 (2020-01-23)
(South China Morning Post, By John Power) A newly-released US Navy video of the tense encounter between a Chinese and US warship in the South China Sea in late 2018 offers an indication of how seriously the Chinese side were prepared for a collision with the US vessel in the contested waterway. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

The Korean Peninsula

Efforts to Denuclearize North Korea Will Continue Despite Hard-Line Minister, U.S. Says (2020-01-22)
(New York Times, By Lara Jakes and Edward Wong) Privately, some American officials acknowledge that the administration has gotten nowhere in negotiations, and that there is no sign the North will give up its nuclear weapons. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

North Korea Confirms Former Commander is New Foreign Minister (2020-01-23)
(Reuters, By Hyonhee Shin and David Brunnstrom) North Korea on Friday confirmed that Ri Son Gwon, a former defense commander with limited diplomatic experience, has been appointed the country’s new foreign affairs minister, while the United States repeated calls for Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

North Korean Leader’s Aunt Re-emerges After Husband’s Execution
 (2020-01-25)
(New York Times, By Choe Sang-Hun) Kim Kyong-hui resurfaces as Kim Jong-un emphasizes his bloodline to consolidate his people’s loyalty. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Korean Peninsula Peace Prospects Unravelling in 2020 (2020-01-25)
(East Asia Forum, By Charles K Armstrong) After US President Donald Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ threats of late 2017 gave way to summit diplomacy in early 2018, the prospects for peace on the Korean Peninsula looked bright. But by the end of 2019 these hopes had dimmed, and as 2020 dawns, peace prospects appear to be unravelling altogether. <Accessed 2020-01-26>

Other Regional Issues

Russia Says US Indo-Pacific Strategy is to Contain China (2020-01-21)
(The Diplomat, By Ashok Sharma) “Why do you need to call Asia-Pacific as Indo-Pacific? The answer is evident — to exclude China. Terminology should be unifying, not divisive,” Lavrov said in remarks at the Raisina Dialogue. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

Washington’s War on Huawei Is Causing Angst in Madrid (2020-01-21)
(Foreign Policy, By Mario Esteban, Miguel Otero-Iglesias) Against this backdrop, Spanish leaders do not want to take sides between the United States and China, but, if forced, in a bipolar world in which the EU has not developed strategic autonomy yet, Spain would side with the United States because of economic and strategic interests, in addition to obvious affinities when it comes to democratic values. <Accessed 2020-01-21>

China’s Belt and Road: Is Asia Getting More Cautious? (2020-01-23)
(The Diplomat, By Prashanth Parameswaran) Getting a sense of regional reactions is challenging given the diversify of responses we have seen, the evolution of the BRI itself, which remains quite amorphous in some senses amid the periodic reports we see, and the relative availability of alternatives offered by other countries such as Japan. Indeed, regional engagement with the BRI is best seen not as a linear process, but a more dynamic one in response to changes in these variables and more. <Accessed 2020-01-23>

Contact: James Lee, Senior Editor 

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Recent Publication Kerry Gershaneck, "To Win without Fighting: Defining China's Political Warfare" (Expeditions with Marine Corps University Press)
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