2005-7

~1998 , 1999 , 2000 , 2001-2 , 2003-4

Cross-Strait Relations: In Search of Peace By Alan D. Romberg
(China Leadership Monitor, 23, Winter, 2007) The presidential and legislative election campaigns in Taiwan continue to move along with all of the surprise twists and turns one might have predicted.  In terms of longer-term cross-Strait relations, however, the recent development of greatest interest was General Secretary Hu Jintao's moderate handling of Taiwan in his political report to the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, and particularly his mention of a possible cross-Strait "peace agreement." 

Applying to the UN “in the name of ‘Taiwan’” By Alan D. Romberg
(China Leadership Monitor, No. 22, Fall 2007) The UN referendum issue, already a matter of some controversy by early summer, came to occupy center stage not only in the election campaign, but also among all three actors in the triangular relationship.

U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status By Roger Cliff and David A. Shlapak (RAND, 2007) The consequences of peaceful outcome –including peaceful irresolution- are more predictable and generally better for relations between Washington and Beijing. In contrast, nonpeaceful  resolutions of Taiwan’s status could cause U.S.-China relations to fall anywhere from reasonable amity to a Cold War-like confrontation.

Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2007
(Department of Defense, U.S.A.) China’s near-term focus on preparing for military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, appears to be an important driver of its modernization plans. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating capabilities of other regional contingencies, such as conflict over resources or territory.

The US-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right Through 2020 By Richard L. Armitage & Joseph S. Nye (CSIS, Feb. 16, 2007) With half the world's population, one-third of the global economy, and growing economic, financial, technological, and political weight in the international system, Asia is key to a stable, prosperous world order that best advances American interests. The goal of this report is to outline a vision that offers the best prospect for achieving "a balance of power that favors freedom."

Doubly Dualistic Dilemma: U.S. Strategy towards China and Taiwan By Philip Yang (International Relations of the Asia Pacific, 6:2, August 2006) In its relations with Taiwan and China, Washington has begun to implement separate dual strategies in order to simultaneously deter unilateral action while balancing out the rival political and military forces of each other. US policy has to mirror the duality of the cross-strait arena by implementing dual balancing and deterrent strategies.

Explaining Taiwan’s Revisionist Diplomacy By Robert Ross
(Journal of Contemporary China, Aug. 2006) Taiwan is a revisionist power. Its independence movement challenges a vital status-quo interest of mainland China’s opposition to a de jure Taiwan declaration of independence. Adopting a ‘levels of analysis’ approach to Taiwan’s mainland policy, this paper addresses this question by examining four prevalent explanations for Taiwan’s revisionist diplomacy.

Taiwan-U.S. Political Relations: New Strains and Changes By Kerry Dumbaugh (CRS Report, Oct. 2006) Faced with competing pressures from Beijing and Taipei and with changes in the PRC and continuing transformations in the Taiwan systems, U.S. officials are likely to continue facing new and more difficult policy choices concerning Taiwan. In addition to raising the risks of political and economic instability, growing political polarization in Taiwan could further erode the quality of U.S.-Taiwan contacts.

The Chinese Journal of International Politics
(Summer 2006) The journal will publish its first issue in Summer 2006. Most of its articles are either related to China or have implication for Chinese foreign policy. Yan Xuetong, The Rise of China and its Power Status; Ronald L. Tammen and Jacek Kugler, Power Transition and China–US Conflicts; Sun Xuefeng, The Efficiency of China's Policy towards the United States.

Some Reflections on My Time in Taiwan By Douglas H. Paal
(Brookings Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, July, 2006) Peace has prevailed in the Taiwan Strait despite the PRC's military buildup and renewed focus on Taiwan. Nevertheless, in the 1990s, new trends emerged that foreshadowed rising tensions. Naturally, Taiwan's energetic democracy yearned for more international signs of respect.

The Taiwan Tangle By Alan D. Romberg
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Spring 2006) This essay relates the events occurring in the China-Taiwan-U.S. triangle since October 2005, when they were last addressed in CLM.

Risks and Opportunities of a Rising China By Larry M. Wortzel
(Heritage Foundation, June 22, 2006) Beijing has adopted a strategy that focuses on the accumulation of strategic resources and the development of a productive capacity that attracts vast amounts of foreign capital, modernizes its industry, leaps China's technological base forward, and strengthens its military. China's diplomacy, especially around Asia, but also in Africa, Latin America, and Europe, has been a counterweight to American influence.

Halfway to China’s Collapse By Gordon G. Chang
(Far Eastern Economic Review, June 2006) China remains a fragile nation. As China’s new leaders successively open their great country, all the forces that apply around the world—political, economic, and social—are beginning to apply in China as well. As this process continues, as China becomes less Chinese, the country’s centrally directed political system becomes vulnerable.

Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense (RAND, April 2006) Over the past decade, Chinese military strategists have keenly observed changes in U.S. national strategy and military transformation. The acceleration of its own military modernization suggests that China is not dissuaded by U.S. military prowess but instead is driven by a range of strategic and military motivations to keep pace.

Taiwan’s Fading Independence Movement By Robert S. Ross
(Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006) Political development in Taiwan over the past year have effectively ended the independence movement there. The peaceful transformation of relations between China and Taiwan will help stabilize eastern Asia.

A Realist Policy for Managing US-China Competition By Robert S. Ross (Stanley Foundation, April 2006) When crafting US foreign and security policies toward East Asia, do not assume that the rise of China will entail Cold War hostilities. Avoid US policies that would lead toward economic, political, and military polarization of Asia into two adversarial blocs.

China’s Rise: implications for U.S. Leadership in Asia By Robert G. Sutter (East-West Center Washington, March 2006) Foreign policy makers in the United States should not be misled by prevailing media and scholarly assessment that exaggerate China’s influence in Asia relative to that of the United States.

The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable? By Aaron L. Friedberg (International Security, Vol. 30, Issue 2, Fall 2005) Most analysts who write on U.S.-China relations deploy arguments derived from the three main camps in contemporary international relations theorizing: realism, liberalism, and constructivism. It is possible to identify realists who believe that the relationship will basically be stable and peaceful, liberals who expect confrontation and conflict, and constructivists who think that things could go either way.

Regime Insecurity and International Cooperation: Explaining China's Compromises in Territorial Disputes By M. Taylor Fravel (International Security, Vol. 30, Issue 2, Fall 2005) Since the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait crisis, scholars and policymakers have become increasingly concerned about China’s territorial ambitions. Yet China has also used peaceful means to manage conflicts, settling seventeen of its twenty-three territorial disputes, often with substantial compromises.

Will China Become a "Responsible Stakeholder"?—The Six Party Talks, Taiwan Arms Sales, and Sino-Japanese Relations By Thomas Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Fall 2005) In recent months, China's security policy has enjoyed significant successes. Relations with the United States have improved, particularly on issues related to North Korea.

U.S. -China Economic and Security Review Commission Annual Reports to Congress (Nov. 8, 2005) China is in the midst of an extensive military modernization program aimed at building its force projection capabilities to confront U.S. and allied forces in the region. A major goal is to be able to deter, delay, or complicate a timely U.S. and allied intervention in an armed conflict over Taiwan so China can overwhelm Taiwan and force a quick capitulation by Taiwan’s government.

China Fails to Adequately Control WMD Exports
(RAND, Sep. 2005) China lacks the resources to fully implement its laws and regulations designed to control exports of sensitive goods and technologies that could be used to help create chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente (International Crisis Group, Sep. 2005) After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for stability across the Taiwan Strait has improved. Constraints on Taiwan pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's term of office in 2008.

America’s Bismarckian Asia Policy By Eric Heginbotham and Christopher P. Twomey (Current History, Sep. 2005) US policy is not achieving the goals set out for it. It is ceding regional leadership while seeding regional rivalry. It is missing opportunities to help shape the development of a new security environment through regional institutions and instead acting to exacerbate the rise of nationalism.

Looking Beyond the Nuclear Bluster: Recent Progress and Remaining Problems in PRC Security Policy By Thomas Christensen (China Leader Monitor, Summer 2005) Beijing's diplomacy on security issues over the same period has improved, a more basic trend that should not be overshadowed by General Zhu's bluster and Beijing's heated response to the Pentagon report.

Have Old Problems Trumped New Thinking? China's Relations with Taiwan, Japan, and North Korea By Thomas Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Spring 2005) On diplomatic policies toward Taiwan, Japan, and North Korea, respectively, Beijing has appeared bullying, emotional, and ineffective.

China under Hu Jintao By Joseph Fewsmith
(China Leadership Monitor, Spring 2005) Hu's government has backed away from some of the tolerance that existed (though insufficiently) under Jiang Zemin.

SIPRI Yearbook 2005: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, June 2005) World military expenditure in 2004 is estimated to have been $975 billion at constant (2003) prices and exchange rates or $1035 billion in current dollars. The major determinant of the world trend in military expenditure is the change in the USA, which makes up 47 per cent of the world total.

Taiwan and Nonproliferation By Monte Bullard
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, May 2005) Taiwan plays a critical role in the security of East Asia and indeed the world. The current impasse between Taiwan and China is the issue most likely to bring two mature nuclear powers into conflict and cause them to contemplate or threaten the use of nuclear weapons.

Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints (RAND, May 2005) Projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and on defense in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China’s defense industries, and compares likely future expenditure levels with recent defense expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force.

Strait Talk: Avoiding a Nuclear War between the United States and China over Taiwan By Monte R. Bullard (Center for Nonproliferation Studies) A web book, examines the Cross Strait issue in detail and recommends that all three political entities establish an active status quo policy.