2005-7
~1998 , 1999 , 2000 , 2001-2 , 2003-4
Cross-Strait
Relations: In Search of Peace By Alan
D. Romberg
(China Leadership Monitor, 23, Winter, 2007) The presidential and legislative
election campaigns in Taiwan
continue to move along with all of the surprise twists and turns one might
have predicted. In terms of longer-term cross-Strait relations,
however, the recent development of greatest interest was General Secretary Hu
Jintao's moderate handling of Taiwan in his
political report to the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, and
particularly his mention of a possible cross-Strait "peace
agreement."
Applying to the
UN “in the name of ‘Taiwan’” By Alan D. Romberg
(China Leadership Monitor, No. 22, Fall 2007) The UN
referendum issue, already a matter of some controversy by early summer, came
to occupy center stage not only in the election campaign, but also among all
three actors in the triangular relationship.
U.S.-China
Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status By
Roger Cliff and David A. Shlapak (RAND, 2007) The consequences of peaceful outcome
–including peaceful irresolution- are more predictable and generally better
for relations between Washington
and Beijing.
In contrast, nonpeaceful
resolutions of Taiwan’s status could cause
U.S.-China relations to fall anywhere from reasonable amity to a Cold
War-like confrontation.
Military Power of
the People’s Republic of China, 2007
(Department of Defense,
U.S.A.)
China’s near-term
focus on preparing for military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including
the possibility of U.S.
intervention, appears to be an important driver of its modernization plans.
However, analysis of China’s
military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating
capabilities of other regional contingencies, such as conflict over resources
or territory.
The US-Japan
Alliance: Getting Asia Right Through 2020 By Richard L. Armitage & Joseph S. Nye (CSIS, Feb. 16, 2007) With half the world's population, one-third
of the global economy, and growing economic, financial, technological, and
political weight in the international system, Asia is key to a stable,
prosperous world order that best advances American interests. The goal of
this report is to outline a vision that offers the best prospect for
achieving "a balance of power that favors freedom."
Doubly Dualistic Dilemma: U.S.
Strategy towards China and Taiwan By Philip Yang
(International Relations of the Asia Pacific, 6:2, August 2006) In its
relations with Taiwan and China, Washington has begun to implement separate
dual strategies in order to simultaneously deter unilateral action while
balancing out the rival political and military forces of each other. US
policy has to mirror the duality of the cross-strait arena by implementing
dual balancing and deterrent strategies.
Explaining Taiwan’s
Revisionist Diplomacy By Robert Ross
(Journal of Contemporary China, Aug. 2006) Taiwan is a revisionist
power. Its independence movement challenges a vital status-quo interest of
mainland China’s
opposition to a de jure Taiwan declaration of independence.
Adopting a ‘levels of analysis’ approach to Taiwan’s mainland policy, this
paper addresses this question by examining four prevalent explanations for
Taiwan’s revisionist diplomacy.
Taiwan-U.S.
Political Relations: New Strains and Changes By Kerry Dumbaugh (CRS Report, Oct.
2006) Faced with competing pressures from Beijing
and Taipei and with changes in the PRC
and continuing transformations in the Taiwan
systems, U.S.
officials are likely to continue facing new and more difficult policy choices
concerning Taiwan.
In addition to raising the risks of political and economic instability,
growing political polarization in Taiwan could further
erode the quality of U.S.-Taiwan contacts.
The Chinese Journal of International Politics
(Summer 2006) The journal will publish its first issue in Summer 2006. Most
of its articles are either related to China or have implication
for Chinese foreign policy. Yan Xuetong,
The Rise of China
and its Power Status; Ronald L. Tammen and Jacek Kugler, Power Transition and
China–US Conflicts; Sun Xuefeng, The Efficiency of
China's Policy towards the United States.
Some Reflections
on My Time in Taiwan By Douglas H. Paal
(Brookings
Center for Northeast Asian
Policy Studies, July, 2006) Peace has prevailed in the Taiwan Strait despite
the PRC's military buildup and renewed focus on Taiwan.
Nevertheless, in the 1990s, new trends emerged that foreshadowed rising
tensions. Naturally, Taiwan's
energetic democracy yearned for more international signs of respect.
The
Taiwan Tangle By
Alan D. Romberg
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Spring
2006) This essay relates the events occurring in the China-Taiwan-U.S.
triangle since October 2005, when they were last addressed in CLM.
Risks and Opportunities
of a Rising China By Larry M. Wortzel
(Heritage Foundation, June 22, 2006) Beijing has adopted a strategy that
focuses on the accumulation of strategic resources and the development of a productive
capacity that attracts vast amounts of foreign capital, modernizes its
industry, leaps China's technological base forward, and strengthens its
military. China's
diplomacy, especially around Asia, but also in Africa, Latin America, and Europe, has been a counterweight to American influence.
Halfway to
China’s Collapse By Gordon G. Chang
(Far Eastern Economic Review, June 2006) China remains a fragile
nation. As China’s
new leaders successively open their great country, all the forces that apply
around the world—political, economic, and social—are beginning to apply in China
as well. As this process continues, as China becomes less
Chinese, the country’s centrally directed political system becomes
vulnerable.
Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and
Implications for the Department of Defense (RAND, April 2006) Over the past decade, Chinese military
strategists have keenly observed changes in U.S. national strategy
and military transformation. The acceleration of its own military
modernization suggests that China
is not dissuaded by U.S.
military prowess but instead is driven by a range of strategic and military
motivations to keep pace.
Taiwan’s Fading Independence
Movement By Robert S. Ross
(Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006) Political development in Taiwan
over the past year have effectively ended the independence movement there.
The peaceful transformation of relations between China and Taiwan
will help stabilize eastern Asia.
A Realist Policy
for Managing US-China Competition By Robert S. Ross (Stanley
Foundation, April 2006) When crafting US foreign and security policies toward
East Asia, do not assume that the rise of China will entail Cold War
hostilities. Avoid US policies that would lead toward economic, political,
and military polarization of Asia into two
adversarial blocs.
China’s Rise:
implications for U.S. Leadership in Asia By Robert G. Sutter (East-West Center Washington, March 2006) Foreign policy makers
in the United States
should not be misled by prevailing media and scholarly assessment that
exaggerate China’s influence in Asia relative to that of the United States.
The Future of
U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable? By Aaron L. Friedberg (International Security, Vol. 30, Issue 2, Fall
2005) Most analysts who write on U.S.-China relations deploy arguments
derived from the three main camps in contemporary international relations
theorizing: realism, liberalism, and constructivism. It is possible to
identify realists who believe that the relationship will basically be stable
and peaceful, liberals who expect confrontation and conflict, and
constructivists who think that things could go either way.
Regime Insecurity
and International Cooperation: Explaining China's Compromises in Territorial
Disputes By M. Taylor Fravel (International Security, Vol. 30,
Issue 2, Fall 2005) Since the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait crisis, scholars and
policymakers have become increasingly concerned about China’s territorial
ambitions. Yet China
has also used peaceful means to manage conflicts, settling seventeen of its
twenty-three territorial disputes, often with substantial compromises.
Will China Become
a "Responsible Stakeholder"?—The Six Party Talks, Taiwan Arms
Sales, and Sino-Japanese Relations By Thomas Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Fall 2005) In
recent months, China's security policy has enjoyed significant successes.
Relations with the United States
have improved, particularly on issues related to North Korea.
U.S. -China
Economic and Security Review Commission Annual Reports to Congress (Nov. 8, 2005) China is in the midst of an extensive
military modernization program aimed at building its force projection
capabilities to confront U.S. and allied forces in the
region. A major goal is to be able to deter, delay, or complicate a timely U.S. and allied intervention in an
armed conflict over Taiwan
so China can
overwhelm Taiwan
and force a quick capitulation by Taiwan’s government.
China Fails to
Adequately Control WMD Exports
(RAND, Sep. 2005) China lacks the resources to fully implement its laws and
regulations designed to control exports of sensitive goods and technologies
that could be used to help create chemical, biological, radiological and
nuclear weapons.
China and Taiwan:
Uneasy Détente (International Crisis Group,
Sep. 2005) After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for
stability across the Taiwan Strait has
improved. Constraints on Taiwan
pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China
will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's
term of office in 2008.
America’s
Bismarckian Asia Policy By Eric Heginbotham
and Christopher P. Twomey (Current History, Sep. 2005) US policy is not
achieving the goals set out for it. It is ceding regional leadership
while seeding regional rivalry. It is missing opportunities to help
shape the development of a new security environment through regional
institutions and instead acting to exacerbate the rise of nationalism.
Looking Beyond
the Nuclear Bluster: Recent Progress and Remaining Problems in PRC Security
Policy By Thomas Christensen (China Leader Monitor, Summer 2005) Beijing's diplomacy on
security issues over the same period has improved, a more basic trend that
should not be overshadowed by General Zhu's bluster and Beijing's heated
response to the Pentagon report.
Have Old Problems
Trumped New Thinking? China's Relations with Taiwan, Japan, and North Korea By Thomas
Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Spring
2005) On diplomatic policies toward Taiwan,
Japan, and North Korea, respectively, Beijing has
appeared bullying, emotional, and ineffective.
China under Hu
Jintao By Joseph Fewsmith
(China Leadership Monitor, Spring 2005) Hu's
government has backed away from some of the tolerance that existed (though
insufficiently) under Jiang Zemin.
SIPRI Yearbook 2005: Armaments, Disarmament and
International Security (Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute, June 2005) World military expenditure in 2004 is
estimated to have been $975 billion at constant (2003) prices and exchange
rates or $1035 billion in current dollars. The major determinant of the world
trend in military expenditure is the change in the USA, which makes up 47
per cent of the world total.
Taiwan and Nonproliferation By Monte Bullard
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, May 2005) Taiwan plays a critical role in the security
of East Asia and indeed the world. The
current impasse between Taiwan
and China
is the issue most likely to bring two mature nuclear powers into conflict and
cause them to contemplate or threaten the use of nuclear weapons.
Modernizing
China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints (RAND, May 2005) Projects future growth in Chinese government
expenditures as a whole and on defense in particular, evaluates the current
and likely future capabilities of China’s
defense industries, and compares likely future expenditure levels with recent
defense expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air
Force.
Strait Talk: Avoiding a Nuclear War
between the United States and China over Taiwan By Monte R.
Bullard (Center for Nonproliferation
Studies) A web book, examines the Cross Strait
issue in detail and recommends that all three political entities establish an
active status quo policy.
|
