2004

~1998 , 1999 , 2000 , 2001-2 , 2003-4

The Rise and Descent of "Peaceful Rise" By Robert L. Suettinger
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Fall, 2004) A controversial formulation about China's emerging global role and responsibilities appears to have been set aside, in part as a result of leadership disagreements.

Survey on Taiwanese Public Perception of Cross-strait Security  (Taiwan Business Weekly, July 22, 2004) In case there is a cross-strait war, far more people think that the U.S. will send military forces to assist Taiwan than those who don’t think it will. 52% of the subjects think the U.S. will send troops; 23.3% think it won’t. More people value peace over independent sovereignty.

The Chinese Threat to American Leadership in Space By Gabriele Garibaldi (Security Dialogue, July 20, 2004) The launch of the Shenzhou 5  made clear to most people what is well-known to the experts: in Space, as on Earth, the most likely challenger to the American unipolar order is China. Because of the huge stakes, the space competition risks being accompanied by a rapid Star Wars arms race.

Leadership Policy toward Taiwan and the United States in the Wake of Chen Shui-bian's Reelection By Robert L. Suettinger (China Leadership Monitor, Summer 2004) In the run-up to Chen's victory, Beijing had once again failed to influence events in Taiwan.

Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan’s Defense Reform and Modernization Program By Michael D. Swaine (Carnegie Endowment, July 2004) Taiwan’s defense reforms are focused primarily on four key issue areas: (1) civil-military relations’ (2) military modernization; (3) improvements in national security and military strategy; and (4) procurement of weapons and technology.

Brookings Northeast Asia Survey 2003-04
(Brookings Institution, 2004) At the beginning of 2003, a cloud of tension and uncertainty hung over Northeast Asia.  Among the world's current potential flash points, the China- Taiwan cross-Strait stand-off is unique.

Partners and Competitors: U.S.-China Economic Relationship By Bates Gill and Sue Anne Tay (CSIS, Apr. 2004) The report examines the complex and dynamic U.S.-China economic, trade, and financial relationship. It explores the U.S. trade deficit with China, Chinese currency valuation, and bilateral trade disputes.

The PLA, Chen Shui-Bian, and the Referenda: The War Dogs That Didn't Bark By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Spring 2004) The relative silence of authoritative military statements, complemented by the lack of evidence in open sources of troop movements, exercises signals important changes in strategy and tactics with respect to Taiwan.

Trouble in Taiwan By Michael D. Swaine
(Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr. 2004) Critics assume that democracy and independence are inseparable, that the "one China" principle is no longer useful, and that China would never go to war over Taiwan. But they are wrong on all three counts and fail to appreciate the dangers that may lie ahead.

The Bush Administration and Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey
(US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Feb. 6, 2004) Despite our long-standing friendship with democratic and free Taiwan, Bush realizes that the US needs China.  The president also realizes that an unnecessary military conflict with China over Taiwan will not serve anyone’s interests. 

China's Changing Role in Asia By Wang Jisi
(Atlantic Council, Jan. 2004) A Chinese perspective on China’s role in Asia and strategy toward its Asian neighbors. What are the principal Chinese concerns in Asia that shape China’s strategy toward the region?

China's Foreign Policy Leadership: Testing Time By Robert L. Suettinger (China Leadership Monitor, Winter 2004) Over the course of the last two years, China's foreign policy appears to have undergone a significant transformation in favor of enhanced pragmatism, flexibility, and sophistication.

An Economic Bubble? Chinese Policy Adapts to Rapidly Changing Conditions By Barry Naughton (China Leadership Monitor, Winter 2004) During the first half of 2003, rapid growth in China led many to proclaim the emergence of an economic "bubble."

New U.S.-China Tri-level Strategic Relations and Taiwan Security in a Post-9/11 World By Philip Yang (Issues & Studies, Dec. 2003) The impact of September 11 and the ongoing North Korean nuclear crisis have provided great opportunities for Beijing and Washington to cooperate on international and regional security, a circumstance which led to a temporary change of policy attitude in bilateral security relations.

Rein In at the Brink of the Precipice: American Policy Toward Taiwan and U.S.-PRC Relations By Alan D. Romberg
(Stimson Center, October 2003) U.S. leaders have on occasion been either inattentive to—or unaware of—the commitments undertaken with the People’s Republic of China regarding Taiwan and, because of this, have unwittingly generated crises—and could do so again.

Is China a Status Quo Power? By Alastair Iain Johnston
(International Security, Vol. 27, Issue 4 - Spring 2003) The People’s Republic of China is more integrated into, and more cooperative within, regional and global political and economic systems.

PRC Security Relations with the United States: Why Things Are Going So Well By Thomas Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Fall 2003) This cooperation has led to the assessment by Colin Powell that U.S.-PRC relations are at their most constructive "in decades." In this essay, I lay out the reasons for this basic turnaround in U.S.-PRC bilateral relations.

The Crucible of Tragedy: SARS, the Ming 361 Accident, and Chinese Party-Army Relations By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Fall 2003) Hu Jintao, despite the potential opening offered by the governance crisis over SARS, appears unwilling or unable to directly challenge Jiang Zemin's leadership at this point in time.

Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'?
(International Crisis Group, June 2003) All relevant players need to find creative ways of moving forward, minimising provocation: the period leading up to the next presidential election, in March 2004, will be an important test for Taiwan’s pro-independence leaders. (pdf file)

Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War
(International Crisis Group, June 2003) China has no capacity for the foreseeable future to launch a successful major military assault on Taiwan, and that it is operating far more on the political or psychological level of conflict rather than the military. (pdf file)

Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace
(International Crisis Group, June 2003) There should be a resumption of high level political contacts – with greater emphasis on concrete cross-Strait cooperation and interchanges, and less on high-profile arguments about recognition of the ‘one China’ principle. (pdf file)

PRC Foreign Relations after the National People's Congress: Iraq, North Korea, SARS, Taiwan By Thomas J. Christensen
(Chinese Leadership Monitor, Summer 2003) Relations with Taiwan have been affected by Iraq, North Korea, SARS, and electoral politics in Taipei. Release of the anticipated "assessment" of cross-Strait relations has been delayed by some combination of international and domestic factors relating to the March 2004 Taiwan presidential elections.

Reduced Budgets, the "Two Centers," and Other Mysteries of the 2003 National People's Congress By James Mulvenon
(Chinese Leadership Monitor, Summer 2003) The National People's Congress (NPC) meetings, particularly the publicized People's Liberation Army (PLA) delegate discussion sessions, are a consistently useful barometer of the state of party-army relations.

CFR Report on Chinese Military Power
(Council on Foreign Relations, May 22, 2003) China is pursuing a deliberate course of military modernization, but is at least two decades behind the United States in terms of military technology and capability. China's current force structure provides effective defense against any effort to invade and seize Chinese territory.

Asian Development Outlook 2003
(Asian Development Bank, Apr. 2003) Asia’s economic growth will show to 5.3 percent in 2003 from last year’s 5.7 percent due to the recent outbreak of SARS. Despite this, the region remains the world’s economic bright spot.

Brookings Northeast Asia Survey 2002-2003
(Brookings Institution, Apr. 2003) At the beginning of the Bush Administration there was a point of view that the main fault-line in the geopolitics of East Asia was between the United States and China.

Taiwan's Threat Perceptions:  The Enemy Within By Denny Roy
(Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies, Mar. 2003) The threats Taiwan perceives stemming from China’s hostility are principally political economic rather than military.  Due to internal weaknesses, Taiwan is not making its strongest possible preparation to withstand these challenges.

Asia on the Horizon: Taiwan By Richard Halloran 
(Parameters, U.S. Army War College, Spring 2003) Perhaps nowhere else on the globe is the situation so seemingly intractable and the prospect of a major war involving the United States so real.

Sino-U.S. Military  Relations Since Tiananmen: Restoration, Progress, and Pitfalls By Jing-dong Yuan (Parameters, U.S. Army War College, Spring 2003) Sino-US relations have experienced uneven developments over the last decade as the two major powers have grappled with the evolving post-Cold War international security environment as well as shifting domestic agendas and foreign policy priorities.

China and Missile Defense: Managing U.S.-PRC Relations 
(Stimson Center, Feb. 2003) Missile defense is not simply one of the many issues on which the two countries disagree, but it is one which, if handled maladroitly, could become a fundamental driver of a downward trend in future Sino-American relations.

The Party Transition: Will It Bring a New Maturity in Chinese Security Policy? By Thomas J. Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Winter 2003) What do the power transition and the new lineup of leaders mean for the prospect for future flexibility and new thinking in Beijing on key security issues important to U.S.-China relations: Taiwan, the war on terrorism, Iraq and the U.N. Security Council, weapons proliferation, North Korea, etc.?

The PLA and the 16th Party Congress: Jiang Controls the Gun? By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Winter 2003) This article explores the implications of Jiang's gambit, analyzes the retirements of senior PLA leaders and the biographies of their replacements.

Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.-China Relations By Michael Swaine (Policy Brief, Carnegie Endowment, Feb. 2003) To establish a more sustainable basis for improved U.S.-China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions across the Taiwan Strait.

Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to the United States? By Ivan Eland (CATO Institute, Jan. 2003) Even without U.S. assistance, Taiwan's modern military could probably dissuade China from attacking. Taiwan does not have to be able to win a conflict; it needs only to make the costs of any attack unacceptable to China. The informal U.S. security guarantee is unneeded.