2004
~1998 , 1999 , 2000 , 2001-2 , 2003-4
The Rise and Descent of "Peaceful Rise" By Robert L. Suettinger
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Fall, 2004) A controversial
formulation about China's emerging global role and responsibilities appears
to have been set aside, in part as a result of leadership disagreements.
Survey on Taiwanese Public Perception of Cross-strait
Security (Taiwan Business Weekly, July 22, 2004) In case there is a
cross-strait war, far more people think that the U.S. will send military
forces to assist Taiwan than those who don’t think it will. 52% of the
subjects think the U.S.
will send troops; 23.3% think it won’t. More people value peace over
independent sovereignty.
The Chinese Threat to American Leadership in Space By Gabriele Garibaldi (Security Dialogue, July 20, 2004) The launch of the Shenzhou 5 made clear to most people what is
well-known to the experts: in Space, as on Earth, the most likely challenger
to the American unipolar order is China. Because of
the huge stakes, the space competition risks being accompanied by a rapid
Star Wars arms race.
Leadership Policy toward Taiwan and the United States in
the Wake of Chen Shui-bian's Reelection By Robert L. Suettinger
(China Leadership Monitor, Summer
2004) In the run-up to Chen's victory, Beijing had
once again failed to influence events in Taiwan.
Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and
Failures of Taiwan’s Defense Reform and Modernization Program By Michael D. Swaine (Carnegie Endowment,
July 2004) Taiwan’s defense reforms are focused primarily on four key issue
areas: (1) civil-military relations’ (2) military modernization; (3)
improvements in national security and military strategy; and (4) procurement
of weapons and technology.
Brookings Northeast Asia Survey 2003-04
(Brookings Institution, 2004) At
the beginning of 2003, a cloud of tension and uncertainty hung over Northeast
Asia. Among the world's current
potential flash points, the China- Taiwan cross-Strait stand-off is unique.
Partners and Competitors: U.S.-China Economic Relationship By Bates Gill and Sue Anne Tay (CSIS, Apr. 2004) The
report examines the complex and dynamic U.S.-China economic, trade, and
financial relationship. It explores the U.S. trade deficit with China,
Chinese currency valuation, and bilateral trade disputes.
The PLA, Chen Shui-Bian, and the
Referenda: The War Dogs That Didn't Bark By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Spring 2004) The relative silence of
authoritative military statements, complemented by the lack of evidence in
open sources of troop movements, exercises signals important changes in
strategy and tactics with respect to Taiwan.
Trouble in Taiwan By Michael D. Swaine
(Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr. 2004) Critics assume that democracy and
independence are inseparable, that the "one China" principle is no
longer useful, and that China would never go to war over Taiwan. But they are
wrong on all three counts and fail to appreciate the dangers that may lie
ahead.
The Bush Administration and Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey
(US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Feb. 6, 2004) Despite our
long-standing friendship with democratic and free Taiwan, Bush realizes that
the US needs China. The president also
realizes that an unnecessary military conflict with China over Taiwan will
not serve anyone’s interests.
China's Changing Role in Asia By Wang Jisi
(Atlantic Council, Jan. 2004) A Chinese perspective on China’s role in Asia
and strategy toward its Asian neighbors. What are the principal Chinese
concerns in Asia that shape China’s strategy toward the region?
China's Foreign Policy Leadership: Testing Time By Robert L. Suettinger (China Leadership Monitor, Winter
2004) Over the course of the last two years, China's foreign policy appears
to have undergone a significant transformation in favor of enhanced pragmatism,
flexibility, and sophistication.
An Economic Bubble? Chinese Policy Adapts to Rapidly
Changing Conditions By Barry Naughton (China Leadership
Monitor, Winter 2004) During the first half of 2003, rapid growth in China
led many to proclaim the emergence of an economic "bubble."
New U.S.-China Tri-level Strategic Relations and Taiwan
Security in a Post-9/11 World By Philip Yang (Issues & Studies, Dec. 2003) The impact of September 11
and the ongoing North Korean nuclear crisis have provided great opportunities
for Beijing and Washington to cooperate on international and regional
security, a circumstance which led to a temporary change of policy attitude
in bilateral security relations.
Rein In at the Brink of the Precipice: American Policy
Toward Taiwan and U.S.-PRC Relations By Alan D.
Romberg
(Stimson Center, October 2003) U.S. leaders have on occasion been either
inattentive to—or unaware of—the commitments undertaken with the People’s
Republic of China regarding Taiwan and, because of this, have unwittingly
generated crises—and could do so again.
Is China a Status Quo Power? By Alastair Iain Johnston
(International Security, Vol. 27, Issue 4 - Spring 2003) The People’s
Republic of China is more integrated into, and more cooperative within,
regional and global political and economic systems.
PRC Security Relations with the United States: Why Things Are
Going So Well By Thomas Christensen
(China Leadership Monitor, Fall 2003) This
cooperation has led to the assessment by Colin Powell that U.S.-PRC relations
are at their most constructive "in decades." In this essay, I lay
out the reasons for this basic turnaround in U.S.-PRC bilateral relations.
The Crucible of Tragedy: SARS, the Ming 361 Accident, and
Chinese Party-Army Relations By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Fall 2003) Hu
Jintao, despite the potential opening offered by
the governance crisis over SARS, appears unwilling or unable to directly
challenge Jiang Zemin's leadership at this point in
time.
Taiwan Strait
I: What's Left of 'One China'?
(International Crisis Group, June 2003) All relevant
players need to find creative ways of moving forward, minimising
provocation: the period leading up to the next presidential election, in
March 2004, will be an important test for Taiwan’s pro-independence leaders.
(pdf file)
Taiwan Strait
II: The Risk of War
(International Crisis Group, June 2003) China has no
capacity for the foreseeable future to launch a successful major military
assault on Taiwan, and that it is operating far more on the political or
psychological level of conflict rather than the military. (pdf file)
Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace
(International Crisis Group, June 2003) There should
be a resumption of high level political contacts – with greater emphasis on
concrete cross-Strait cooperation and interchanges, and less on high-profile
arguments about recognition of the ‘one China’ principle. (pdf file)
PRC Foreign
Relations after the National People's Congress: Iraq, North Korea, SARS,
Taiwan By Thomas J. Christensen
(Chinese Leadership Monitor, Summer 2003) Relations with Taiwan have been
affected by Iraq, North Korea, SARS, and electoral politics in Taipei.
Release of the anticipated "assessment" of cross-Strait relations
has been delayed by some combination of international and domestic factors
relating to the March 2004 Taiwan presidential elections.
Reduced Budgets, the "Two Centers," and Other
Mysteries of the 2003 National People's Congress By James Mulvenon
(Chinese Leadership Monitor, Summer 2003) The National People's Congress
(NPC) meetings, particularly the publicized People's Liberation Army (PLA)
delegate discussion sessions, are a consistently useful barometer of the
state of party-army relations.
CFR Report on Chinese Military Power
(Council on Foreign Relations, May 22, 2003) China is
pursuing a deliberate course of military modernization, but is at least two
decades behind the United States in terms of military technology and
capability. China's current force structure provides effective defense
against any effort to invade and seize Chinese territory.
Asian Development Outlook 2003
(Asian Development Bank, Apr. 2003) Asia’s economic
growth will show to 5.3 percent in 2003 from last year’s 5.7 percent due to
the recent outbreak of SARS. Despite this, the region remains the world’s
economic bright spot.
Brookings Northeast Asia Survey 2002-2003
(Brookings Institution, Apr. 2003) At the beginning
of the Bush Administration there was a point of view that the main fault-line
in the geopolitics of East Asia was between the United States and China.
Taiwan's Threat Perceptions: The Enemy Within By Denny Roy
(Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies, Mar. 2003) The threats Taiwan
perceives stemming from China’s hostility are principally political economic
rather than military. Due to internal
weaknesses, Taiwan is not making its strongest possible preparation to
withstand these challenges.
Asia on the Horizon: Taiwan By Richard Halloran
(Parameters, U.S. Army War College, Spring 2003)
Perhaps nowhere else on the globe is the situation so seemingly intractable
and the prospect of a major war involving the United States so real.
Sino-U.S. Military Relations
Since Tiananmen: Restoration, Progress, and Pitfalls By Jing-dong Yuan (Parameters, U.S.
Army War College, Spring 2003) Sino-US relations have experienced uneven
developments over the last decade as the two major powers have grappled with
the evolving post-Cold War international security environment as well as
shifting domestic agendas and foreign policy priorities.
China and Missile Defense: Managing U.S.-PRC Relations
(Stimson Center, Feb. 2003) Missile defense is not
simply one of the many issues on which the two countries disagree, but it is
one which, if handled maladroitly, could become a fundamental driver of a
downward trend in future Sino-American relations.
The Party Transition: Will It Bring a New Maturity in
Chinese Security Policy? By Thomas J. Christensen (China
Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Winter 2003) What do the power
transition and the new lineup of leaders mean for the prospect for future
flexibility and new thinking in Beijing on key security issues important to
U.S.-China relations: Taiwan, the war on terrorism, Iraq and the U.N.
Security Council, weapons proliferation, North Korea, etc.?
The PLA and the 16th Party Congress: Jiang Controls the Gun? By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Winter 2003) This
article explores the implications of Jiang's gambit, analyzes the retirements
of senior PLA leaders and the biographies of their replacements.
Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.-China
Relations By Michael Swaine (Policy Brief,
Carnegie Endowment, Feb. 2003) To establish a more sustainable basis for
improved U.S.-China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy
changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions
across the Taiwan Strait.
Is Chinese Military Modernization a Threat to the United States? By Ivan Eland (CATO Institute, Jan.
2003) Even without U.S. assistance, Taiwan's modern military could probably
dissuade China from attacking. Taiwan does not have to be able to win a
conflict; it needs only to make the costs of any attack unacceptable to
China. The informal U.S. security guarantee is unneeded.
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