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2004~1998 , 1999 , 2000 , 2001-2 , 2003-4 The Rise and Descent of "Peaceful Rise" By Robert L. Suettinger Survey on Taiwanese Public Perception of
Cross-strait Security (Taiwan Business Weekly, July 22, 2004) In case there is a
cross-strait war, far more people think that the U.S. will send military
forces to assist Taiwan than those who don’t think it will. 52% of the subjects
think the The Chinese Threat to American Leadership in Space By Gabriele Garibaldi (Security Dialogue, July 20, 2004) The launch of the Shenzhou
5 made clear to most people what is
well-known to the experts: in Space, as on Earth, the most likely challenger
to the American unipolar order is China. Because of the huge stakes, the
space competition risks being accompanied by a rapid Star Wars arms race. Leadership Policy toward Taiwan and the United
States in the Wake of Chen Shui-bian's Reelection By Robert L. Suettinger (China Leadership Monitor, Summer 2004) In
the run-up to Chen's victory, Beijing had once again failed to influence
events in Taiwan. Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The
Successes and Failures of Taiwan’s Defense Reform and Modernization Program By Michael D.
Swaine (Carnegie Endowment, July 2004)
Taiwan’s defense reforms are focused primarily on four key issue areas: (1)
civil-military relations’ (2) military modernization; (3) improvements in
national security and military strategy; and (4) procurement of weapons and
technology. Brookings Northeast Asia Survey 2003-04 Partners and Competitors: U.S.-China
Economic Relationship By Bates Gill and Sue Anne Tay (CSIS, Apr. 2004) The
report examines the complex and dynamic U.S.-China economic, trade, and
financial relationship. It explores the U.S. trade deficit with China,
Chinese currency valuation, and bilateral trade disputes. The PLA, Chen Shui-Bian, and the Referenda: The War
Dogs That Didn't Bark By James Mulvenon (China Leadership Monitor, Spring 2004) The relative silence of
authoritative military statements, complemented by the lack of evidence in
open sources of troop movements, exercises signals important changes in
strategy and tactics with respect to Taiwan. Trouble in Taiwan By Michael D. Swaine The Bush Administration and Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey China's Changing Role in Asia By Wang Jisi China's Foreign Policy Leadership:
Testing Time By Robert L. Suettinger
(China Leadership Monitor, Winter 2004) Over the course of the last two
years, China's foreign policy appears to have undergone a significant
transformation in favor of enhanced pragmatism, flexibility, and
sophistication.
An
Economic Bubble? Chinese Policy Adapts to Rapidly Changing Conditions By Barry Naughton (China Leadership
Monitor, Winter 2004) During the first half of 2003, rapid growth in China
led many to proclaim the emergence of an economic "bubble." New U.S.-China Tri-level Strategic Relations
and Taiwan Security in a Post-9/11 World By Philip Yang (Issues &
Studies, Dec. 2003) The impact of September 11 and the ongoing North Korean
nuclear crisis have provided great opportunities for Beijing and Washington
to cooperate on international and regional security, a circumstance which led
to a temporary change of policy attitude in bilateral security relations. Rein In at the
Brink of the Precipice: American Policy Toward Taiwan and U.S.-PRC Relations By Alan D.
Romberg Is China a Status Quo Power? By Alastair Iain Johnston PRC Security
Relations with the United States: Why Things Are Going So Well By Thomas
Christensen (China Leadership Monitor, Fall 2003) This
cooperation has led to the assessment by Colin Powell that U.S.-PRC relations
are at their most constructive "in decades." In this essay, I lay
out the reasons for this basic turnaround in U.S.-PRC bilateral relations.
The Crucible of Tragedy: SARS, the Ming 361
Accident, and Chinese Party-Army Relations By James Mulvenon (China Leadership
Monitor, Fall 2003) Hu Jintao, despite the potential opening offered by the
governance crisis over SARS, appears unwilling or unable to directly
challenge Jiang Zemin's leadership at this point in time. Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'? Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace PRC
Foreign Relations after the National People's Congress: Iraq, North Korea,
SARS, Taiwan By Thomas J.
Christensen Reduced Budgets, the "Two Centers," and
Other Mysteries of the 2003 National People's Congress By James Mulvenon CFR Report on Chinese Military Power Asian Development Outlook 2003 Brookings
Northeast Asia Survey 2002-2003 Taiwan's Threat Perceptions: The Enemy Within By Denny Roy Asia on the Horizon: Taiwan By Richard
Halloran Sino-U.S. Military Relations Since Tiananmen:
Restoration, Progress, and Pitfalls By Jing-dong Yuan (Parameters, U.S. Army War College, Spring 2003) Sino-US
relations have experienced uneven developments over the last decade as the
two major powers have grappled with the evolving post-Cold War international
security environment as well as shifting domestic agendas and foreign policy priorities. China and Missile Defense: Managing U.S.-PRC
Relations The Party Transition: Will It Bring a New Maturity
in Chinese Security Policy? By Thomas J. Christensen (China
Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution, Winter 2003) What do the power transition
and the new lineup of leaders mean for the prospect for future flexibility
and new thinking in Beijing on key security issues important to U.S.-China
relations: Taiwan, the war on terrorism, Iraq and the U.N. Security Council,
weapons proliferation, North Korea, etc.? The PLA and the 16th Party Congress: Jiang Controls
the Gun? By James Mulvenon
(China Leadership Monitor, Hoover Institution,
Winter 2003) This article explores the implications of Jiang's gambit,
analyzes the retirements of senior PLA leaders and the biographies of their
replacements. Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in
U.S.-China Relations By Michael Swaine (Policy Brief,
Carnegie Endowment, Feb. 2003) To establish a more sustainable basis for
improved U.S.-China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy
changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions
across the Taiwan Strait. Is Chinese
Military Modernization a Threat to the United States? By Ivan Eland (CATO Institute, Jan. 2003) Even without U.S. assistance, Taiwan's
modern military could probably dissuade China from attacking. Taiwan does not
have to be able to win a conflict; it needs only to make the costs of any attack
unacceptable to China. The informal U.S. security guarantee is unneeded. |