~1998 , 1999 , 2000 ,
2001-2002
The Significance and Contribution of the “One
China, with Respective Interpretations” Consensus
By SU Chi
(National Policy Foundation, 2002) Translated from the Introduction to “One
China, with Respective Interpretations”— A Historical Account of the
Consensus of 1992. The “one China, with respective interpretations” consensus
was the first political compromise of profound historic significance in more
than forty years.
Navigating the Taiwan Strait:
Deterrance, Escalation Dominance, and U.S.-China
By Robert S. Ross
(International Security, Vol. 27, Issue 2 - Fall 2002) The assumption of the
George W. Bush administration is that war in the Taiwan Strait is
sufficiently likely that the United States must strengthen its diplomatic and
military ties with Taiwan, even though such ties could disrupt U.S.- China
relations and regional stability.
The Fall and Rise of Navies
in East Asia: Military Organizations, Domestic Politics, and Grand Strategy By Eric Heginbotham
(International Security, Vol. 27, Issue 2 - Fall 2002) Since 1980, aggregate
East Asian naval tonnage has increased 69 percent, while the average age of
warships has decreased.
Beijing Drama: China's
Governance Crisis and Bush's New Challenge By Minxin Pei
(Carnegie Endowment, Policy Brief 21, Nov. 2002) China's leadership
transition occurs at a critical juncture. Beijing's new leaders face an
emerging governance crisis that consists of a decaying ruling party,
deteriorating state capacity, and brewing regime-society tensions.
The People's Liberation Army as Organization:
Reference Volume v1.0 Editors: James C. Mulvenon and Andrew
N. D. Yang
(RAND, 2002) Presents the results of a conference that brought together many
of the nation's top experts to evaluate issues of structure and process in
the People's Liberation Army.
China's Governance Crisis
and Bush's New Challenge By Minxin Pei
(Carnegie Endowment, Policy Brief 21, Nov. 2002) China's leadership
transition occurs at a critical juncture. Beijing's new leaders face an
emerging governance crisis that consists of a decaying ruling party,
deteriorating state capacity, and brewing regime-society tensions.
Taiwan's Response to China's Missile Buildup By Phillip C. Saunders and Lora L. Saalman
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, October 2002) Over the next five years,
China’s growing missile capabilities will be its most important means of
exerting military leverage over Taiwan. This issue brief provides a
systematic outline of Taiwan’s potential military and political responses to
a PRC missile attack.
You've Got Dissent! Chinese Dissident Use of the
Internet and Beijing's Counter-Strategies By Michael S. Chase,
James C. Mulvenon
(RAND, Oct. 2002) An analysis of the political use of the Internet by Chinese
dissidents, both in the PRC and abroad, and the counterstrategies that
Beijing has employed to prevent or minimize its impact.
Staying the Course:
Opportunities and Limitations in U.S.-China Relations
(Atlantic Council, Sep. 2002) U.S.-China relations go far beyond the Taiwan
question, touching on the security situation on the whole Asia-Pacific region
and the character of China’s future international role.
The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a
Taiwan Conflict By Thomas J. Christensen
(Washington Quarterly, August 2002)
Successful deterrence requires both threats and assurances about the
conditionality of those threats. Deterrence across the Taiwan Strait is
possible, but not simple.
Generational Transition in China By Joseph Fewsmith
(Washington Quarterly, August 2002) Will the transition to China's so-called
"fourth generation" be smooth, and how much of a difference will
their ascendance really make?
China and Japan: Trouble Ahead? By Robert Sutter
(Washington Quarterly, August 2002) The past few years have seen China's
influence and activism in East Asia grow while Japan's has relatively declined.
Some see conflict ahead, but binding forces for positive China-Japan
relations exist.
September 11, One Year
Later: A World of Change By Jessica T. Mathews
(Carnegie Endowment, Aug. 2002) Special edition policy brief takes a look at
the immediate effects that 9/11 has had on many fronts including the economy,
the environment, globalization, and the U.S. relationship with Russia, China,
Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
Taiwan Independence and the
U.S. Response By Martin L. Lasater
(Taiwan Security Research, July 31, 2002) Recent statements by current and
former Taiwan government officials have raised the issue of the island one
day following its own path toward national independence. The purpose of this
article is to identify several of the major factors that might influence the
U.S. response to a decision by Taiwan to establish an independent country
separate from China.
U.S. - China Security Review Commission Annual Reports
to Congress
(U.S.-China Commission, July 2002) Cross-strait relations are a major
potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Economic and people-to-people
interactions between Taiwan and the Mainland have increased dramatically in
recent years, raising prospects that such interactions could help ameliorate
cross-strait political tensions.
Challenges and Opportunities
in the Cross-Strait Relationship
(Foreign Policy Research Institute, July 1, 2002) The PRC and Taiwan both
acceded to the World Trade Organization. Cross-Strait dialogue remained
characterized by the PRC's continuing dismissal of Taiwan's President Chen
Shui-bian as insincere and untrustworthy.
Ballistic Missiles and
Missile Defense in Asia By Michael D. Swaine with Loren
H. Runyon
(NBR Analysis: Vol. 13, No. 3, June 2002) The expansion of missile
capabilities, and U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans, have stimulated
interest in the region in the development and deployment of possible defensive
countermeasures, most notably in Japan and Taiwan.
If Taiwan Chooses
Unification, Should the United States Care? By Nancy Tucker (PDF format,
Acrobat 5.0)
(Washington Quarterly, Summer 2002) The article argues that economic
dependence on, and integration with, China may make unification desirable or necessary
for Taiwan in the not-too-distant future. What would it mean for U.S.
national interests and the stability of East Asia? Can Washington's
detachment be sustained?
China: Economic Power, Political Enigma
By Joshua
Kurlantzick
(Washington Quarterly, Summer 2002) Although China is becoming a more
responsible international actor in some areas, in others it is becoming less
responsible. Washington must come to terms with China's massive bifurcation
between economic and diplomatic behavior.
Domestic Determinants of
Taiwan’s Mainland Policy By Su Chi
(May 2002) Taiwan’s Mainland policy has come a long way since 1987. This paper will begin with a brief sketch
of Taiwan’s Mainland policy in its different stages, followed by a discussion
of the context in which the policy evolved.
The influence of the Ideas, Institutions, and Players moving the
policy will then be explored.
China's Recent Approach to
Asia: Seeking Long-Term Gains By Robert Sutter
(NBR Analysis, 2002) Chinese leaders pragmatically recognize that directly
confronting or resisting U.S. influence in Asia would be counterproductive,
at least for the foreseeable future.
Arms Control in a New Era By Rose Gottemoeller
(Washington Quarterly, Spring 2002) Depending on unilateral arms control
measures alone may remove the impetus to cooperation between Moscow and
Washington, making a new relationship unattainable. Additional principles
will need to be embraced to truly transform relations.
Terrorism, Taiwan Elections,
and Tattered Treaties: PRC Security Politics From September 11 Through Year's
End
By Thomas J. Christensen
(China Leader Monitor, Winter 2002) This essay addresses three important
issues in Beijing's security policy since early September. First, and most
obvious, is the September 11 attack on America and the newfound spirit of
U.S.-China cooperation that arose from that atrocious event.
PLA Divestiture and
Civil-Military Relations: Implications for the Sixteenth Party Congress
Leadership By James Mulvenon
(China Leader Monitor, Winter 2002) The time seems ripe for a re-examination
of the civil-military features of divestiture and their implications for the
future party-army relationship.
Can China's Tolerance Last? By Bates Gill
(Arms Control Today, Jan.-Feb. 2002) Many observers seemed surprised by
China’s muted reaction to the Bush administration’s December 13 announcement
that the United States would withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM)
Treaty. With the ABM Treaty withdrawal announcement past, the
questions are, how did China come to this more subdued position, and can it
last?
Cross-Strait Military
Balance and the Security of Taiwan By Cheng-yi Lin
(Japan-Taiwan Research Forum, Jan. 22, 2002) Taiwan needs to strengthen its strategy
and tactics for both active and passive defense against missile attack,
combining this with the psychological, civil, social and economic defense
advocated by the total defense strategy, to enable the weapons received from
the U.S. to provide real protection for Taiwan.
Domestic Changes and
Taiwan's Engagement with Mainland China By Tse-Kang Leng
(Japan-Taiwan Research Forum, Jan. 22, 2002) Taiwan's democratic politics and
its desire to preserve the democratic system have become the first priority
in initiating cross-Straits policies.
Taiwan's more prudent attitude toward mainland China is a reflection
of domestic power constellation and culture shift within the island. Peace
and conflicts across the Taiwan Straits is a reflection of this democratic
dilemma.
Japan’s Response to
Terrorism and Implications for the Taiwan Strait Issue By Tomohito Shinoda
(Japan-Taiwan Research Forum, Jan. 22, 2002) U.S.-Japan security ties have
become stronger than ever. Japan
would not hesitate to side with the United States if Washington take any
action to intervene in cross-Strait relations. Japan’s response to the September 11th terrorist attack was a
major step for Japan’s involvement in the security environment in Asia as a
whole, and including possible future situations surrounding Taiwan.
Strategic Asia: 2001-2001 Northeast Asia
(National Bureau of Asia Research, Dec. 2001) Introduction by Aaron
Friedberg, China by Thomas Christensen, Japan by Kenneth Pyle and Eric
Heginbotham, Korea by Nicholas Eberstadt, Russia by Rajan Menon.
Cross-Strait Political and Military Relations --
2000-2001 Inter-Election Developments By Philip Yang
(Dec. 2001) Three major developments related to cross-strait political
and military relations during the inter-election period between March 2000
and December 2001: First, President Chen Shui-bian's cross-strait policy has
shifted from a pragmatic position in the beginning to a more traditional DPP
attitude. Second, China’s response toward Chen has been changed from
“wait-and-see” attitude to “wait-but-blame” approach. Third, military issues
between Taiwan and PRC are not only military tension across the Taiwan Strait
but have become a regional security dilemma.
Taiwan's Foreign and Defense Policies: Features and
Determinants By Michael Swaine and James Mulvenon
(RAND, 2001) Taiwan’s foreign and defense policies are principally focused on
maintaining the security and prosperity of the territory of Taiwan and its 23
million inhabitants, in the context of a precarious and rapidly changing
domestic and external environment. The Chen Shui-bian government has adopted
a relatively low-profile, non-provocative foreign policy stance for the
present.
Hegemon on the Offensive:
Chinese Perspectives on U.S. Global Strategy By Yong Deng
(Political Science Quarterly, Oct. 24, 2001) Conflict between the United
States and China is structural and has been on the rise. The author believes
there is a real danger of an escalation of balancing and counterbalancing
unless a mechanism of peaceful change is devised. (PDF file)
Taiwan: Domestic Gridlock, Cross-Strait Deadlock By Willem van Kemenade
(The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001) Cross-strait and Taiwanese internal
politics are more interlinked than ever before. In the short-term, Taiwanese
politics are bound to see more instability and chaos, leading to a further
deterioration in cross-strait relations. (PDF file)
What if . . . 'China Attacks
Taiwan! By Richard L. Russell
(Parameters, Army War College, Autumn 2001) In the event of a real
cross-Strait attack, the Chinese imperative would be to strike Taiwan fast
and hard. Beijing would want to avoid a US military buildup in the region--similar
to that dispatched in the 1996 crisis--and lessen the prospects of an early
US intervention that could prevent Chinese forces from gaining footholds on
Taiwan. The use of tactical nuclear weapons and chemical munitions might work
to delay a US response even more than the initial shock of a bold
cross-Strait attack.
An Evitable War: Engaged
Containment and the US-China Balance By Roy C. Howle
(Parameters, Army War College, Autumn 2001) The current balance of power in
Asia is deeply unsatisfactory to Beijing. The two chief points of Chinese
dissatisfaction are Japanese economic power, with a concern for resurgent
Japanese militarism, and suspicion of what Beijing sees as an orchestrated US
effort to "contain" China, in order to preserve American dominance
over a unipolar world.
Contrasting Visions: United States,
China, and World Order By Bates Gill
(Brookings Institution, Testimony to the U.S.-China Security Review
Commission, Aug. 2001) An overview of the fundamental sources which shape the
differences in strategic perceptions and worldview between the United States
and China. An analysis of how these fundamental views combine with
contemporary developments to shape China's current strategic perceptions of
the United States. An assessment of the principal ways these differences in
strategic perceptions will play out in U.S.-China security relations.
Cross-Strait Relations in the
Aftermath of the Election of Chen Shui-bian By Dennis Van Vranken
Hickey and Yitan Li
(July 2001) Despite fears that the election might have put Beijing and
Taipei on a collision course, the new administration has proved to be
surprisingly pragmatic in its ties with the PRC. At the same time, however,
it is a gross exaggeration for the Chen administration and its supporters to
contend that there exists a so-called “stabilization” in cross-strait
relations that bodes well for cross-strait relations and for peace and
stability in the western pacific. The potential for a sharp and dangerous
escalation in tensions remains.
China's Challenge to Pax Americana By Evan A. Feigenbaum
(The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2001) Since Beijing's 1996 missile exercise
in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese leaders have begun to articulate a decidedly
alternative vision of the underlying principles of international relations
that could continue to create tensions with the United States.
Measuring U.S. Military Readiness By Michael O'Hanlon,
Jason Forrester, and Micah Zenko
(National Security Studies Quarterly, Spring 2001) On the whole, today's U.S.
military is in good shape—comparable in general to typical levels during the
1980s. It is not as ready as the military of the early 1990s, however, and
several trend lines have continued downward in recent years. Existing
problems require prompt attention before readiness deteriorates to the point
where it significantly affects U.S. military capabilities and security
interests.
Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense By Michael Swaine,
Rachel Swanger, Takashi Kawakami
(RAND, June 2001) Spurred by a perceived growing ballistic missile threat
from within the Asia-Pacific region and requests from the United States to
support research and development on components of a missile defense system,
the Japanese government decided in late 1998 and early 1999 to move forward
with joint research and development with the United States on ballistic
missile defense (BMD). This book explores both the benefits and potential
problems of deploying a BMD system in Japan.
The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy
and Force Posture
(RAND, May 2001) This report summarizes the manner in which the United States
can best meet these challenges and thereby ensure continued peace and
stability in the region. Chapter One: The USAF and Asia, Chapter Two: The
Changing Asian Political-Military Environment, Chapter Three: U.S. Strategy
for a Changing Asia, Chapter Four: Implications for the Military and USAF:
The Challenges of Change. (PDF file)
Seeking Truth From Facts: A
Retrospective on Chinese Military Studies in the Post-Mao Era (online book) Eds. by James C.
Mulvenon and Andrew N.D. Yang
(Rand, 2001) Since the beginning of Deng Xiaoping:s reforms in the
late-1970s, the Chinese military has undergone profound changes in nearly all
areas of activity. In a parallel and
perhaps related development, the field of China military studies in the
United States has also witnessed dramatic growth over the last 20 years. The
membership of the field has expanded substantially in sheer numbers, but also
incorporated a wider spectrum of backgrounds and expertise. (PDF file)
The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy
and Force Posture By Zalmay
Khalilzad, David Orletsky, etc.
(RAND, May 2001) The overall long-term U.S. objective for the region should
be to preclude in Asia the growth of rivalries, suspicions, and insecurities that
could lead to war. This overall
objective necessitates three subordinate goals: prevent the rise of a
regional hegemon, maintain stability, and manage Asia's transformation.
Posing Problems Without
Catching Up: China's Rise and the Challenge for American Security By Thomas J.
Christensen
(SAIS Policy Forum. Feb. 2001) If China were indeed on track to becoming a
peer competitor, China's economic growth and increasing technological
sophistication must allow China to close the gap with the American military,
create power projection capabilities that would threaten the American
position in East Asia, and replace the Soviet Union as a global security
threat.
Fututre Shock: The WTO and
Political Change in China By Minxin Pei
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Feb. 2001) China's impending WTO
entry will pose unprecedented economic and political challenges to the
Chinese government. U.S.-China relations could deteriorate as bilateral
tensions over trade and human rights increase.
Missile Defense and U.S.-China
Relations By Wade Huntley and Robert Brown
(Foreign Policy in Focus, Jan. 2001) Huntley and Brown make the case that the
pursuit of an aggressive theater missile defense system in
East Asia could lead to new U.S.-China military tensions and preempt
important proposals for the establishment of new common security regimes
in the Asia-Pacific region.
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