~1998 , 1999 , 2000 ,

2001-2002

The Significance and Contribution of the “One China, with Respective Interpretations” Consensus By SU Chi
(National Policy Foundation, 2002) Translated from the Introduction to “One China, with Respective Interpretations”— A Historical Account of the Consensus of 1992. The “one China, with respective interpretations” consensus was the first political compromise of profound historic significance in more than forty years.

Navigating the Taiwan Strait: Deterrance, Escalation Dominance, and U.S.-China By Robert S. Ross
(International Security, Vol. 27, Issue 2 - Fall 2002) The assumption of the George W. Bush administration is that war in the Taiwan Strait is sufficiently likely that the United States must strengthen its diplomatic and military ties with Taiwan, even though such ties could disrupt U.S.- China relations and regional stability.

The Fall and Rise of Navies in East Asia: Military Organizations, Domestic Politics, and Grand Strategy By Eric Heginbotham
(International Security, Vol. 27, Issue 2 - Fall 2002) Since 1980, aggregate East Asian naval tonnage has increased 69 percent, while the average age of warships has decreased.

Beijing Drama: China's Governance Crisis and Bush's New Challenge By Minxin Pei
(Carnegie Endowment, Policy Brief 21, Nov. 2002) China's leadership transition occurs at a critical juncture. Beijing's new leaders face an emerging governance crisis that consists of a decaying ruling party, deteriorating state capacity, and brewing regime-society tensions.

The People's Liberation Army as Organization: Reference Volume v1.0 Editors: James C. Mulvenon and Andrew N. D. Yang
(RAND, 2002) Presents the results of a conference that brought together many of the nation's top experts to evaluate issues of structure and process in the People's Liberation Army.

China's Governance Crisis and Bush's New Challenge By Minxin Pei
(Carnegie Endowment, Policy Brief 21, Nov. 2002) China's leadership transition occurs at a critical juncture. Beijing's new leaders face an emerging governance crisis that consists of a decaying ruling party, deteriorating state capacity, and brewing regime-society tensions.

Taiwan's Response to China's Missile Buildup By Phillip C. Saunders and Lora L. Saalman
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, October 2002) Over the next five years, China’s growing missile capabilities will be its most important means of exerting military leverage over Taiwan. This issue brief provides a systematic outline of Taiwan’s potential military and political responses to a PRC missile attack.

You've Got Dissent! Chinese Dissident Use of the Internet and Beijing's Counter-Strategies By Michael S. Chase, James C. Mulvenon
(RAND, Oct. 2002) An analysis of the political use of the Internet by Chinese dissidents, both in the PRC and abroad, and the counterstrategies that Beijing has employed to prevent or minimize its impact.

Staying the Course:  Opportunities and Limitations in U.S.-China Relations
(Atlantic Council, Sep. 2002) U.S.-China relations go far beyond the Taiwan question, touching on the security situation on the whole Asia-Pacific region and the character of China’s future international role.

The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict By Thomas J. Christensen
(Washington Quarterly, August 2002) Successful deterrence requires both threats and assurances about the conditionality of those threats. Deterrence across the Taiwan Strait is possible, but not simple.

Generational Transition in China By Joseph Fewsmith
(Washington Quarterly, August 2002) Will the transition to China's so-called "fourth generation" be smooth, and how much of a difference will their ascendance really make?

China and Japan: Trouble Ahead? By Robert Sutter
(Washington Quarterly, August 2002) The past few years have seen China's influence and activism in East Asia grow while Japan's has relatively declined. Some see conflict ahead, but binding forces for positive China-Japan relations exist.

September 11, One Year Later: A World of Change By Jessica T. Mathews
(Carnegie Endowment, Aug. 2002) Special edition policy brief takes a look at the immediate effects that 9/11 has had on many fronts including the economy, the environment, globalization, and the U.S. relationship with Russia, China, Central Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Taiwan Independence and the U.S. Response By Martin L. Lasater
(Taiwan Security Research, July 31, 2002) Recent statements by current and former Taiwan government officials have raised the issue of the island one day following its own path toward national independence. The purpose of this article is to identify several of the major factors that might influence the U.S. response to a decision by Taiwan to establish an independent country separate from China.

U.S. - China Security Review Commission Annual Reports to Congress
(U.S.-China Commission, July 2002) Cross-strait relations are a major potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Economic and people-to-people interactions between Taiwan and the Mainland have increased dramatically in recent years, raising prospects that such interactions could help ameliorate cross-strait political tensions.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Cross-Strait Relationship
(Foreign Policy Research Institute, July 1, 2002) The PRC and Taiwan both acceded to the World Trade Organization. Cross-Strait dialogue remained characterized by the PRC's continuing dismissal of Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian as insincere and untrustworthy.

Ballistic Missiles and Missile Defense in Asia By Michael D. Swaine with Loren H. Runyon
(NBR Analysis: Vol. 13, No. 3, June 2002) The expansion of missile capabilities, and U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) plans, have stimulated interest in the region in the development and deployment of possible defensive countermeasures, most notably in Japan and Taiwan.

If Taiwan Chooses Unification, Should the United States Care? By Nancy Tucker (PDF format, Acrobat 5.0)
(Washington Quarterly, Summer 2002) The article argues that economic dependence on, and integration with, China may make unification desirable or necessary for Taiwan in the not-too-distant future. What would it mean for U.S. national interests and the stability of East Asia? Can Washington's detachment be sustained?

China: Economic Power, Political Enigma By Joshua Kurlantzick
(Washington Quarterly, Summer 2002) Although China is becoming a more responsible international actor in some areas, in others it is becoming less responsible. Washington must come to terms with China's massive bifurcation between economic and diplomatic behavior.

Domestic Determinants of Taiwan’s Mainland Policy By Su Chi
(May 2002) Taiwan’s Mainland policy has come a long way since 1987.  This paper will begin with a brief sketch of Taiwan’s Mainland policy in its different stages, followed by a discussion of the context in which the policy evolved.  The influence of the Ideas, Institutions, and Players moving the policy will then be explored. 

China's Recent Approach to Asia: Seeking Long-Term Gains By Robert Sutter
(NBR Analysis, 2002) Chinese leaders pragmatically recognize that directly confronting or resisting U.S. influence in Asia would be counterproductive, at least for the foreseeable future.

Arms Control in a New Era By Rose Gottemoeller
(Washington Quarterly, Spring 2002) Depending on unilateral arms control measures alone may remove the impetus to cooperation between Moscow and Washington, making a new relationship unattainable. Additional principles will need to be embraced to truly transform relations.

Terrorism, Taiwan Elections, and Tattered Treaties: PRC Security Politics From September 11 Through Year's End By Thomas J. Christensen
(China Leader Monitor, Winter 2002) This essay addresses three important issues in Beijing's security policy since early September. First, and most obvious, is the September 11 attack on America and the newfound spirit of U.S.-China cooperation that arose from that atrocious event.

PLA Divestiture and Civil-Military Relations: Implications for the Sixteenth Party Congress Leadership By James Mulvenon
(China Leader Monitor, Winter 2002) The time seems ripe for a re-examination of the civil-military features of divestiture and their implications for the future party-army relationship.

Can China's Tolerance Last? By Bates Gill
(Arms Control Today, Jan.-Feb. 2002) Many observers seemed surprised by China’s muted reaction to the Bush administration’s December 13 announcement that the United States would withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. With the ABM Treaty withdrawal announcement past, the questions are, how did China come to this more subdued position, and can it last?

Cross-Strait Military Balance and the Security of Taiwan By Cheng-yi Lin
(Japan-Taiwan Research Forum, Jan. 22, 2002) Taiwan needs to strengthen its strategy and tactics for both active and passive defense against missile attack, combining this with the psychological, civil, social and economic defense advocated by the total defense strategy, to enable the weapons received from the U.S. to provide real protection for Taiwan.

Domestic Changes and Taiwan's Engagement with Mainland China By Tse-Kang Leng
(Japan-Taiwan Research Forum, Jan. 22, 2002) Taiwan's democratic politics and its desire to preserve the democratic system have become the first priority in initiating cross-Straits policies.  Taiwan's more prudent attitude toward mainland China is a reflection of domestic power constellation and culture shift within the island. Peace and conflicts across the Taiwan Straits is a reflection of this democratic dilemma.

Japan’s Response to Terrorism and Implications for the Taiwan Strait Issue By Tomohito Shinoda
(Japan-Taiwan Research Forum, Jan. 22, 2002) U.S.-Japan security ties have become stronger than ever.  Japan would not hesitate to side with the United States if Washington take any action to intervene in cross-Strait relations.   Japan’s response to the September 11th terrorist attack was a major step for Japan’s involvement in the security environment in Asia as a whole, and including possible future situations surrounding Taiwan.

Strategic Asia: 2001-2001 Northeast Asia
(National Bureau of Asia Research, Dec. 2001) Introduction by Aaron Friedberg, China by Thomas Christensen, Japan by Kenneth Pyle and Eric Heginbotham, Korea by Nicholas Eberstadt, Russia by Rajan Menon.

Cross-Strait Political and Military Relations -- 2000-2001 Inter-Election Developments By Philip Yang
(Dec. 2001) Three major developments related to cross-strait political and military relations during the inter-election period between March 2000 and December 2001: First, President Chen Shui-bian's cross-strait policy has shifted from a pragmatic position in the beginning to a more traditional DPP attitude. Second, China’s response toward Chen has been changed from “wait-and-see” attitude to “wait-but-blame” approach. Third, military issues between Taiwan and PRC are not only military tension across the Taiwan Strait but have become a regional security dilemma. 

Taiwan's Foreign and Defense Policies: Features and Determinants By Michael Swaine and James Mulvenon
(RAND, 2001) Taiwan’s foreign and defense policies are principally focused on maintaining the security and prosperity of the territory of Taiwan and its 23 million inhabitants, in the context of a precarious and rapidly changing domestic and external environment. The Chen Shui-bian government has adopted a relatively low-profile, non-provocative foreign policy stance for the present.

Hegemon on the Offensive: Chinese Perspectives on U.S. Global Strategy By Yong Deng
(Political Science Quarterly, Oct. 24, 2001) Conflict between the United States and China is structural and has been on the rise. The author believes there is a real danger of an escalation of balancing and counterbalancing unless a mechanism of peaceful change is devised. (PDF file) 

Taiwan: Domestic Gridlock, Cross-Strait Deadlock By Willem van Kemenade
(The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001) Cross-strait and Taiwanese internal politics are more interlinked than ever before. In the short-term, Taiwanese politics are bound to see more instability and chaos, leading to a further deterioration in cross-strait relations. (PDF file) 

What if . . . 'China Attacks Taiwan! By Richard L. Russell
(Parameters, Army War College, Autumn 2001) In the event of a real cross-Strait attack, the Chinese imperative would be to strike Taiwan fast and hard. Beijing would want to avoid a US military buildup in the region--similar to that dispatched in the 1996 crisis--and lessen the prospects of an early US intervention that could prevent Chinese forces from gaining footholds on Taiwan. The use of tactical nuclear weapons and chemical munitions might work to delay a US response even more than the initial shock of a bold cross-Strait attack.

An Evitable War: Engaged Containment and the US-China Balance By Roy C. Howle
(Parameters, Army War College, Autumn 2001) The current balance of power in Asia is deeply unsatisfactory to Beijing. The two chief points of Chinese dissatisfaction are Japanese economic power, with a concern for resurgent Japanese militarism, and suspicion of what Beijing sees as an orchestrated US effort to "contain" China, in order to preserve American dominance over a unipolar world.

Contrasting Visions: United States, China, and World Order By Bates Gill
(Brookings Institution, Testimony to the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, Aug. 2001) An overview of the fundamental sources which shape the differences in strategic perceptions and worldview between the United States and China. An analysis of how these fundamental views combine with contemporary developments to shape China's current strategic perceptions of the United States. An assessment of the principal ways these differences in strategic perceptions will play out in U.S.-China security relations.

Cross-Strait Relations in the Aftermath of the Election of Chen Shui-bian By Dennis Van Vranken Hickey and Yitan Li
(July 2001) Despite fears that the election might have put Beijing and Taipei on a collision course, the new administration has proved to be surprisingly pragmatic in its ties with the PRC. At the same time, however, it is a gross exaggeration for the Chen administration and its supporters to contend that there exists a so-called “stabilization” in cross-strait relations that bodes well for cross-strait relations and for peace and stability in the western pacific. The potential for a sharp and dangerous escalation in tensions remains.

China's Challenge to Pax Americana By Evan A. Feigenbaum
(The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2001) Since Beijing's 1996 missile exercise in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese leaders have begun to articulate a decidedly alternative vision of the underlying principles of international relations that could continue to create tensions with the United States.

Measuring U.S. Military Readiness By Michael O'Hanlon, Jason Forrester, and Micah Zenko
(National Security Studies Quarterly, Spring 2001) On the whole, today's U.S. military is in good shape—comparable in general to typical levels during the 1980s. It is not as ready as the military of the early 1990s, however, and several trend lines have continued downward in recent years. Existing problems require prompt attention before readiness deteriorates to the point where it significantly affects U.S. military capabilities and security interests.

Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense By Michael Swaine, Rachel Swanger, Takashi Kawakami
(RAND, June 2001) Spurred by a perceived growing ballistic missile threat from within the Asia-Pacific region and requests from the United States to support research and development on components of a missile defense system, the Japanese government decided in late 1998 and early 1999 to move forward with joint research and development with the United States on ballistic missile defense (BMD). This book explores both the benefits and potential problems of deploying a BMD system in Japan.

The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture
(RAND, May 2001) This report summarizes the manner in which the United States can best meet these challenges and thereby ensure continued peace and stability in the region. Chapter One: The USAF and Asia, Chapter Two: The Changing Asian Political-Military Environment, Chapter Three: U.S. Strategy for a Changing Asia, Chapter Four: Implications for the Military and USAF: The Challenges of Change. (PDF file)

Seeking Truth From Facts: A Retrospective on Chinese Military Studies in the Post-Mao Era (online book) Eds. by James C. Mulvenon and Andrew N.D. Yang
(Rand, 2001) Since the beginning of Deng Xiaoping:s reforms in the late-1970s, the Chinese military has undergone profound changes in nearly all areas of activity.  In a parallel and perhaps related development, the field of China military studies in the United States has also witnessed dramatic growth over the last 20 years. The membership of the field has expanded substantially in sheer numbers, but also incorporated a wider spectrum of backgrounds and expertise. (PDF file)

The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture By Zalmay Khalilzad, David Orletsky, etc.
(RAND, May 2001) The overall long-term U.S. objective for the region should be to preclude in Asia the growth of rivalries, suspicions, and insecurities that could lead to war.  This overall objective necessitates three subordinate goals: prevent the rise of a regional hegemon, maintain stability, and manage Asia's transformation.

 Posing Problems Without Catching Up: China's Rise and the Challenge for American Security By Thomas J. Christensen
(SAIS Policy Forum. Feb. 2001) If China were indeed on track to becoming a peer competitor, China's economic growth and increasing technological sophistication must allow China to close the gap with the American military, create power projection capabilities that would threaten the American position in East Asia, and replace the Soviet Union as a global security threat.

Fututre Shock: The WTO and Political Change in China By Minxin Pei
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Feb. 2001) China's impending WTO entry will pose unprecedented economic and political challenges to the Chinese government. U.S.-China relations could deteriorate as bilateral tensions over trade and human rights increase.

Missile Defense and U.S.-China Relations By Wade Huntley and Robert Brown
(Foreign Policy in Focus, Jan. 2001) Huntley and Brown make the case that the pursuit of an aggressive theater missile defense system in
East Asia could lead to new U.S.-China military tensions and preempt
important proposals for the establishment of new common security regimes
in the Asia-Pacific region.