~1998 , 1999

2000

China and Taiwan-From Flashpoint to Redefining One China By Gary Klintworth
(Parliament House, Australia, Nov. 2000) China and Taiwan are not on a collision course and that indeed, negotiations are the endgame that both sides have in mind. How they proceed, however, is still subject to domestic political variables in both Beijing and Taipei and the perspectives that each side has of the other. ... the gap between the two sides over the meaning of the key issue-'one China'-has narrowed significantly over the last few years.

Taiwan’s Security in the Post-Deng Xiaoping Era By Martin L. Lasater
(Nov. 2000) Peace in the Taiwan Strait is becoming much more problematic in view of political changes in Taiwan and the United States, and the growing national power of China. It is not that peace is impossible to sustain; it is that peace is so difficult to maintain in a situation, like that of the Taiwan issue, in which all concerned parties have vital or important interests at stake with relatively little room for compromise.

The Election of Chen Shui-bian and Its Impact on US Policy toward Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey
(Oct. 2000) The outcome of Taiwan’s 2000 presidential election stunned observers in Taipei, Beijing and Washington.  Following the election, the US has accelerated calls for the PRC to adopt a new, flexible approach toward Taiwan.  The US should not jettison its long-standing “one China” policy or abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan’s defense. 

Challenges to the U.S. East Asian Security Policy: Implications for Taiwan's Security By Philip Yang
(Oct. 2000) The Taiwan security issue is not merely a question of regional security, but one of the most important foreign policy problems of this new century. Taiwan's security problems are not only influenced by military pressure from Mainland China and the ever-changing status of cross-straits relations, but also by the U.S. security policies and strategies.  This paper attempts to make sense of three major U.S. regional security policies influencing East Asia security environment, while pointing out three current challenges and appropriate responses.  It also suggests that the formation and development of these three structures means that East Asian security environment is in the process of forming a new dynamic balance, of which Taiwan's security is one link, and therefore subject to changes in the overall environment and structure. 

Undiscussed Linkages: Implications of Taiwan Straits Security Activity on Global Arms Control and Nonproliferation By Monte R. Bullard
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Oct. 2000) The relationship between the Taiwan issue and Chinese policies on arms control and nonproliferation is one of both direct and indirect linkages. These new links are increasingly assuming a key role in defining Chinese arms control and nonproliferation policies.

U.S. Security Policy in Asia: Implications for China-U.S. Relations By Wu Xinbo
(Brookings Institution, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, September 2000) Three major factors have constantly troubled Sino-U.S. relations in the post-Cold War era: human rights, trade, and security. With the de-linking of China's human rights record from its MFN treatment in 1994 and the closing of Beijing-Washington marathon negotiations on China's WTO membership in 1999, human rights and trade may subside as major sources of tension on the bilateral agenda.

Sovereignty, Intervention, and Peacekeeping: The View from Beijing By Bates Gill and James Reilly
(Survival, Fall 2000) For the Chinese leadership, defense of a "thick" notion of sovereignty serves to enhance its legitimacy, deflect criticism of its domestic policies, and to resist outside involvement in the Taiwan issue. Yet, since the People's Republic initially opened up in the 1970s, China strict sovereign prerogatives have been gradually eroded.

Project Strait Talk: Security and Stability in the Taiwan Strait
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies) A unique seminar with participants from mainland China, Taiwan, and the United States met to identify and discuss military, political, and economic events and trends that might destabilize the security environment in the Taiwan Strait.

Can China Conquer Taiwan? By Michael O'Hanlon
(International Security, Fall 2000) After a decade of intense focus on Iraq and North Korea, the U.S. defense planning community needs to devote more attention to possible war in the Taiwan Strait. The China-Taiwan relationship is structurally unstable, and potentially explosive. China insists that Taiwan is a part of its territory, whereas Taiwan refuses to be ruled by Beijing.

The U.S. Response to China’s Increasing Military Power: Eleven Assumptions in Search of a Policy By June Teufel Dreye
(House Armed Services Committee Hearings, July 19, 2000) The administration has sought to deny or minimize the import of indications that the government of the People’s Republic of China is making steady advances in the modernization of its military and regards the United States as its enemy.

Taiwan and the Future of Asian Security By Robert A. Manning
(Politique Internationale, Summer 2000) The recent Taiwan Presidential election and ascendance to power of Chen Shui-bian and his pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) amid new threats from China highlights the danger of major conflict in East Asia over the unresolved Taiwan question that could alter the Asian political landscape.

The Taiwan Factor in the Vote on PNTR for China and its WTO Accession By Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
(NBR Analysis: Vol. 11, No. 2, July 2000) The United States Congress is on the verge of a crucial vote that could confer permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China. A positive outcome would both end the struggle conducted in Washington each spring since 1990 over China’s trade privileges and insure that American business has full access to the commercial package that China is negotiating with the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Chinese Military Power and American Security Interests By Jonathan D. Pollack
(SAIS Policy Forum, May 2000) Among the factors shaping the Asia-Pacific strategic environment and U.S. regional security interests in the 21st century, China's position and role as a major power loom very large.  The purpose of this essay is to explore some of the major dimensions of Chinese military modernization that seem likely to emerge over he coming decade and a half, and them to assess the potential implication of China's future military development for the longer-term security interests of the United States.

Evolving Roles of the Military in the Asia-Pacific
(Report From The Conference On Evolving Roles of The Military in the Asia-Pacific, Asia-Pacific Center, March 28-30, 2000) In Asia and elsewhere in the world, military forces are discovering that they must either adapt or become less effective.

Nationalism and the Ties that Bind By Benedict Anderson
(Taipei Times, April 25, 2000) This is a worldwide phenomenon basic to nationalism. But China again offers us most interesting examples and will continue to do so. Once a year, the government stages a huge television spectacular, which goes on for many hours and is extremely popular -- "showing" the various peoples that make up the population of the PRC.

China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control By Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, Brad Roberts
(Council of Foreign Relations, April 2000) The report concludes that Beijing’s policy choices vis-a-vis its strategic modernization program are likely to make it the nuclear actor whose behavior may matter most to Washington during the coming decade, and certainly more than has been appreciated.

Comprehending Strategic Ambiguity: US Policy Toward Taiwan Security By Brett V. Benson and Emerson M. S. Niou
(April 2000) The dual deterrence strategy pursued by the US has been successful because it introduces a modicum of uncertainty into a tense conflict with an otherwise certain undesirable outcome.

Inside Japans' Energy Development Politics: What Outsiders Do Not Know By Masahiro Matsumura
(April 14, 2000) After the post Cold War global order metamorphosis, the impediments to large-scale projects for regional energy development have rapidly weakened, thereby opening the window of opportunity for international policy coordination and cooperation involving the public and private sectors of different nations.

Security Challenges for the United States, China, and Taiwan at the Dawn of the New Millennium By Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
(Center for Naval Analysis, March 2000) It seems clear that the most dangerous actor in this drama is China. China has the most rapidly changing expectations about the world community and its place in that world. Although emphasis continues to be on economic reform, nation building has broadened to include other measures of national power.

Tension in The Taiwan Strait By Denny Roy
(March 2000) This article addresses Taiwan's security problem by examining five closely-related issues: (1) the PRC's motivation for threatening Taiwan; (2) the potential impact of economic interchange across the Strait on Taiwan's security; (3) the possible forms a PRC-Taiwan conflict might take; (4) the role the USA plays in Taiwan's security; and (5) approaches to alleviating the PRC threat to Taiwan. First, the PRC's warning that it will use force to prevent Taiwan's permanent political separation from mainland China is a threat, not a bluff…

The Four Futures: Competing Schools of Military Thought inside the PLA By Charles F. Hawkins
(March 2000) Chinese military analysts and defense researchers are coming to grips with new concepts of future warfare. For some years now members of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think tanks have been studying “high tech warfare” and what it means to China. Some date the advent of new thinking to the Falklands War and the Becca Valley incursion in the early 1980s, while others point to Operation Desert Storm in 1991.

Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The American Response By Martin L. Lasater
(February 2000) The fundamental conclusion of this study is that, under most conditions, the United States will intervene militarily to prevent the PRC defeat of Taiwan. Although forecasting such an important U.S. decision is problematic, it is possible to identify most of the variables that would play influential roles in that decision.

The China-Taiwan Military Balance By James H. Nolt
(Jan. 2000) China has no real military options in dealing with Taiwan. Others have discussed at least three major ways China could use military force against Taiwan: 1) invasion, 2) blockade (or mere harassment of flights and shipping) and 3) missile attacks (with or without nuclear warheads). I argue below why none are practical military options. Taiwan's military modernization is proceeding more rapidly than China's. Thus, despite China's more rapid economic growth, its capacity to threaten Taiwan militarily is not increasing; in fact, it is probably decreasing.

Taiwan's National Security, Defense Policy, and Weapons Procurement Processes By Michael D. Swaine
(RAND, Jan. 6, 2000) "The United States should thus continue to strengthen and expand its defense-related contacts with the ROC in ways that serve the above ends. This should include strategic dialogue and advice and assistance designed to improve equipment training, procurement and acquisition processes, and management techniques."