~1998 , 1999
2000
China and
Taiwan-From Flashpoint to Redefining One China By Gary
Klintworth
(Parliament House, Australia, Nov. 2000) China and Taiwan are not on a
collision course and that indeed, negotiations are the endgame that both
sides have in mind. How they proceed, however, is still subject to domestic
political variables in both Beijing and Taipei and the perspectives that each
side has of the other. ... the gap between the two sides over the meaning of
the key issue-'one China'-has narrowed significantly over the last few years.
Taiwan’s Security in
the Post-Deng Xiaoping Era By Martin L. Lasater
(Nov. 2000) Peace in the Taiwan Strait is becoming much more problematic in
view of political changes in Taiwan and the United States, and the growing
national power of China. It is not that peace is impossible to sustain; it is
that peace is so difficult to maintain in a situation, like that of the
Taiwan issue, in which all concerned parties have vital or important
interests at stake with relatively little room for compromise.
The Election of Chen
Shui-bian and Its Impact on US Policy toward Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey
(Oct. 2000) The outcome of Taiwan’s 2000 presidential election stunned observers
in Taipei, Beijing and Washington. Following the election, the US has
accelerated calls for the PRC to adopt a new, flexible approach toward
Taiwan. The US should not jettison its long-standing “one China” policy
or abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan’s defense.
Challenges to the U.S. East
Asian Security Policy: Implications for Taiwan's Security By Philip Yang
(Oct. 2000) The Taiwan security issue is not merely a question of regional
security, but one of the most important foreign policy problems of this new
century. Taiwan's security problems are not only influenced by
military pressure from Mainland China and the ever-changing status of
cross-straits relations, but also by the U.S. security policies and
strategies. This paper attempts to
make sense of three major U.S. regional security policies influencing East Asia
security environment, while pointing out three current challenges and
appropriate responses. It also
suggests that the formation and development of these three structures means
that East Asian security environment is in the process of forming a new dynamic
balance, of which Taiwan's security is one link, and therefore subject to
changes in the overall environment and structure.
Undiscussed Linkages:
Implications of Taiwan Straits Security Activity on Global Arms Control and
Nonproliferation By Monte R. Bullard
(Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Oct. 2000) The relationship between the
Taiwan issue and Chinese policies on arms control and nonproliferation is one
of both direct and indirect linkages. These new links are increasingly
assuming a key role in defining Chinese arms control and nonproliferation
policies.
U.S. Security Policy
in Asia: Implications for China-U.S. Relations By Wu Xinbo
(Brookings Institution, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, September
2000) Three major factors have constantly troubled Sino-U.S. relations in the
post-Cold War era: human rights, trade, and security. With the de-linking of
China's human rights record from its MFN treatment in 1994 and the closing of
Beijing-Washington marathon negotiations on China's WTO membership in 1999,
human rights and trade may subside as major sources of tension on the
bilateral agenda.
Sovereignty,
Intervention, and Peacekeeping: The View from Beijing By Bates Gill and James
Reilly
(Survival, Fall 2000) For the Chinese leadership, defense of a
"thick" notion of sovereignty serves to enhance its legitimacy,
deflect criticism of its domestic policies, and to resist outside involvement
in the Taiwan issue. Yet, since the People's Republic initially opened up in
the 1970s, China strict sovereign prerogatives have been gradually eroded.
Project Strait Talk: Security and Stability in the
Taiwan Strait
(Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies) A
unique seminar with participants from mainland China, Taiwan, and the United
States met to identify and discuss military, political, and economic events
and trends that might destabilize the security environment in the Taiwan
Strait.
Can China Conquer Taiwan? By Michael
O'Hanlon
(International
Security, Fall 2000) After a decade of intense focus on Iraq and North Korea,
the U.S. defense planning community needs to devote more attention to
possible war in the Taiwan Strait. The China-Taiwan relationship is
structurally unstable, and potentially explosive. China insists that Taiwan
is a part of its territory, whereas Taiwan refuses to be ruled by Beijing.
The U.S. Response to China’s Increasing Military
Power: Eleven Assumptions in Search of a Policy By June
Teufel Dreye
(House Armed Services
Committee Hearings, July 19, 2000) The administration has sought to deny or
minimize the import of indications that the government of the People’s
Republic of China is making steady advances in the modernization of its
military and regards the United States as its enemy.
Taiwan and the Future of Asian Security
By Robert A. Manning
(Politique
Internationale, Summer 2000) The recent Taiwan Presidential election and
ascendance to power of Chen Shui-bian and his pro-independence Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) amid new threats from China highlights the danger of
major conflict in East Asia over the unresolved Taiwan question that could
alter the Asian political landscape.
The Taiwan Factor in the Vote on PNTR for China and
its WTO Accession By Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
(NBR Analysis: Vol.
11, No. 2, July 2000) The United States Congress is on the verge of a crucial
vote that could confer permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China. A
positive outcome would both end the struggle conducted in Washington each
spring since 1990 over China’s trade privileges and insure that American
business has full access to the commercial package that China is negotiating
with the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Chinese Military
Power and American Security Interests By Jonathan D. Pollack
(SAIS Policy Forum, May 2000) Among the factors shaping the Asia-Pacific
strategic environment and U.S. regional security interests in the 21st
century, China's position and role as a major power loom very large. The purpose of this essay is to explore
some of the major dimensions of Chinese military modernization that seem
likely to emerge over he coming decade and a half, and them to assess the
potential implication of China's future military development for the
longer-term security interests of the United States.
Evolving Roles of the Military in the Asia-Pacific
(Report From The
Conference On Evolving Roles of The Military in the Asia-Pacific,
Asia-Pacific Center, March 28-30, 2000) In Asia and elsewhere in the world,
military forces are discovering that they must either adapt or become less
effective.
Nationalism and the Ties that Bind
By Benedict Anderson
(Taipei Times, April
25, 2000) This is a worldwide phenomenon basic to nationalism. But China
again offers us most interesting examples and will continue to do so. Once a
year, the government stages a huge television spectacular, which goes on for
many hours and is extremely popular -- "showing" the various
peoples that make up the population of the PRC.
China,
Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control By Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, Brad Roberts
(Council of Foreign Relations,
April 2000) The report concludes that Beijing’s policy choices vis-a-vis its
strategic modernization program are likely to make it the nuclear actor whose
behavior may matter most to Washington during the coming decade, and
certainly more than has been appreciated.
Comprehending Strategic Ambiguity: US Policy Toward
Taiwan Security By Brett V. Benson and Emerson M. S.
Niou
(April 2000) The
dual deterrence strategy pursued by the US has been successful because it
introduces a modicum of uncertainty into a tense conflict with an otherwise
certain undesirable outcome.
Inside Japans' Energy Development Politics: What
Outsiders Do Not Know By Masahiro Matsumura
(April 14, 2000) After the post Cold War global order metamorphosis, the
impediments to large-scale projects for regional energy development have
rapidly weakened, thereby opening the window of opportunity for international
policy coordination and cooperation involving the public and private sectors
of different nations.
Security Challenges for the United States, China,
and Taiwan at the Dawn of the New Millennium By Nancy
Bernkopf Tucker
(Center for Naval
Analysis, March 2000) It seems clear that the most dangerous actor in this
drama is China. China has the most rapidly changing expectations about the
world community and its place in that world. Although emphasis continues to
be on economic reform, nation building has broadened to include other
measures of national power.
Tension in The Taiwan Strait By Denny
Roy
(March 2000) This
article addresses Taiwan's security problem by examining five closely-related
issues: (1) the PRC's motivation for threatening Taiwan; (2) the potential
impact of economic interchange across the Strait on Taiwan's security; (3)
the possible forms a PRC-Taiwan conflict might take; (4) the role the USA
plays in Taiwan's security; and (5) approaches to alleviating the PRC threat
to Taiwan. First, the PRC's warning that it will use force to prevent
Taiwan's permanent political separation from mainland China is a threat, not
a bluff…
The Four Futures: Competing Schools of Military
Thought inside the PLA By Charles F. Hawkins
(March 2000) Chinese
military analysts and defense researchers are coming to grips with new
concepts of future warfare. For some years now members of People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) think tanks have been studying “high tech warfare” and what it
means to China. Some date the advent of new thinking to the Falklands War and
the Becca Valley incursion in the early 1980s, while others point to
Operation Desert Storm in 1991.
Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The American
Response By Martin L. Lasater
(February 2000) The fundamental conclusion of this study is that, under
most conditions, the United States will intervene militarily to prevent the
PRC defeat of Taiwan. Although forecasting such an important U.S. decision is
problematic, it is possible to identify most of the variables that would play
influential roles in that decision.
The China-Taiwan Military Balance By
James H. Nolt
(Jan. 2000) China has no real military options in dealing with Taiwan. Others
have discussed at least three major ways China could use military force
against Taiwan: 1) invasion, 2) blockade (or mere harassment of flights and
shipping) and 3) missile attacks (with or without nuclear warheads). I argue
below why none are practical military options. Taiwan's military
modernization is proceeding more rapidly than China's. Thus, despite China's
more rapid economic growth, its capacity to threaten Taiwan militarily is not
increasing; in fact, it is probably decreasing.
Taiwan's National Security, Defense Policy, and
Weapons Procurement Processes By Michael D. Swaine
(RAND, Jan. 6, 2000) "The United States should thus continue to
strengthen and expand its defense-related contacts with the ROC in ways that
serve the above ends. This should include strategic dialogue and advice and
assistance designed to improve equipment training, procurement and
acquisition processes, and management techniques."
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