~1998
Understanding Taiwan: Bridging the Perception Gap By Lee Teng-hui
(Foreign Affairs, November/December 1999) The sustained economic growth,
unprecedented prosperity, and full democracy achieved by the Republic of
China has one drawback: the speed of Taiwan's progress has outstripped
prevailing perceptions of what Taiwan is and how it should fit into the global
order.
Taiwan's Legal Status: Going Beyond the Unification-Independence
Dichotomy
By Philip Yang
(CSIS, Sep. 21, 1999) Taiwan ambiguous status is a product of half a
century of changing international and cross-strait circumstances.
Geopolitical reasons and the PRC's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan are also
major factors affecting the status of Taiwan and bilateral relations across
the Taiwan Strait.
Americans Look at Asia By William Watts
(Henry Luce Foundation, Oct. 1999) Americans now view China as their
principal concern in Asia, according to a new public opinion survey. China,
together with Japan and Russia, is seen by most Americans as of "vital
interest" to the political, economic, and security concerns of the
United States.
New Archival Evidence on Taiwanese "Nuclear
Intentions", 1966-1976 By William Burr
(National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book, October 1999) During
the late 1960s and mid-1970s, and late 1980s, the U.S. and the International
Atomic Energy Agency actively discouraged Taiwan from acquiring critical
technology for producing fissile materials. Recently declassified documents
provide new and significant details about the efforts to forestall a
nuclear-armed Taiwan.
Like Lips and Teeth: Economic Scenarios for Cross-Strait
Relations
By Gary H. Jefferson
(CSIS, Sep. 21, 1999) Currently, mainland China and Taiwan appear to be
engaged in a process of economic integration and political disintegration.
This paper argues that this divergence between economics and politics is not
sustainable and is particularly threatening to Taiwan's economic prosperity.
The People's Republic of China at Fifty By Robert A. Scalapino
(National Bureau of Asian Research Analysis, Vol. 10, No. 4, October
1999) The People’s Republic of China has achieved tremendous economic
accomplishments in the past several decades, but major problems remain.
China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United
States By
Mark A. Stokes
(the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, Sep. 1999) Stokes
argues that, while the PLA faces obstacles in fulfilling its modernization
objectives, underestimating China's ability to make revolutionary
breakthroughs in key areas could have significant ramifications for U.S.
national security interests.
The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military
Implications
(RAND, Sep. 10, 1999) Criticizing Washington's longstanding strategy of
engagement with China and rejecting the containment alternative favored by
many of its critics, a team of RAND analysts urged a new U.S. China
policy--dubbed "congagement"--designed to preserve hope for
cooperative relations while hedging against the possibility of a hostile
Chinese challenge to U.S. interests and objectives in the future.
China and the United States: From Hostility to Engagement,
1960-1998
By Jeffrey Richelson
(National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book, September 1999) This
electronic briefing book offers critical documentation on key aspects and
events in the U.S.-Chinese relationship, including policy and research
studies, intelligence estimates, diplomatic cables, and briefing materials.
The Taiwan Relations Act: Durable Agreement or Fraying Framework? A Conference Report By Avery
Goldstein
(Foreign Policy Research Institute, Sep. 8, 1999) Participants agreed
that the original reasons for drafting and passing the TRA were both legal
and political. Participants noted that for two decades the ambiguity of the
TRA had served the US interest in neither provoking China nor abandoning
Taiwan.
International Relations Theory and Cross-Strait Relations By Amitav Acharya
(The International Forum on Peace and Security in the Taiwan Strait,
Taipei Taiwan, July 26-28, 1999) International relations theory often
reflects evolving trends in world order. Neo-Realism, may support the
argument that the time is now right for Taipei to make a decisive bid for
independence.
Taiwan: Malcolm Fraser Defers to Beijing By Robyn Lim
(Defender, Australia Defence Association, Spring 1999) Malcolm Fraser,
former Australian prime minister, says that the US should stop helping Taiwan
to defend itself by selling it sophisticated weapons.
Taiwan Independence: Image and Reality By Dennis Van Vanken
Hickey
(September 1999) The author suggests that, while Taiwan has not declared its
de jure independence from China and is unlikely to do so in the short to
medium-term future, it is indeed inching closer to it.
The PLA and the Taiwan Strait By June Teufel Dreyer
(July 1999) The PLA's doctrine and strategy toward Taiwan have evolved
from straightforward efforts to dispatch soldiers armed with rifles and
grenades from small boats to sophisticated psychological warfare operations
involving training exercises simulating invasion.
Human Rights in China By Catharin E. Dalpino
(The Brookings Institution, Policy Brief #50, June 1999) The official
dialogue on human rights should add economic and social rights to the agenda
to give the Chinese a greater stake in cooperation.
"US Engagement Policy
In A Changing Asia: A Time For Reassessment?"
Executive Summary (The National Defense University's 20th Annual Pacific
Symposium, March 1-2, 1999) the US security commitment will be an
indispensable anchor for Asian security insofar as it is conducive to peace
and stability, and that it prevents an arms race in the region.
Final Report of the Taiwan Assembly
(July, 1999)
Taiwan and America: How to Contribute to Peace and Prosperity in Asia and the
World. How do the peoples of America and Taiwan respectively define
comprehensive security and how do they believe that such security can best be
assured? What can be done to enhance cross-strait stability and cooperation?
...
Predicting the Future of China
(Time Asia,
July 19, 1999) With the People's Republic about to turn 50, TIME and the
World Economic Forum convened a panel of experts in Beijing to envision the
next half-century.
A Technical Reassessment of the Conclusions and Implications of
the Cox Committee Report By James Gordon Prather
(Polyconomics Inc., July 8, 1999) The purpose of this analysis is to compare
and contrast the Redacted Report with the consensus of the Experts in order
to gain a basis for a proper interpretation of the Evidence on which the Cox
Committee made its findings.
Is China Unstable? By Minxin Pei
(Foreign
Policy Research Institute Wire, July 1999) In my judgment, the current
pessimism about China's short- term prospects is as exaggerated as the
previous optimism about its long-term economic outlook. In fact, China is
likely to retain its short-term political stability despite many signs of
potential turmoil, but will face rising instability if the regime fails to
undertake significant political reform in the next decade
Dynamics Of U.S.-China Relations By John Gershman
(The Progressive Response, Vol. 3, No. 21, June 10, 1999) John Gershman
of the Institute for Development Research points the way to a more reasonable
and principled approach to U.S.-China relations-an approach not dominated by
unwarranted fears of a Chinese military threat and not held hostage to those
conservative and progressive nationalists who would deny China membership in
the WTO and normal trading status with the United States.
Chinese Policies On Arms Control And Proliferation In The Middle
East By
Gerald M. Steinberg
(May 1999) Among the major powers China has always been the most removed
from arms control and non-proliferation activities. In contrast to the US and
Russia, it has not been involved in any of the strategic nuclear reduction
talks and agreements...
China's Attitude Toward the Taiwan Relations Act By June Teufel Dreyer
(May, 1999) Mainland China has consistently been hostile toward the
Taiwan Relations Act. It has interpreted the TRA as the effort of pro-Taiwan
forces in the U.S. Congress to subvert the intent if not the actual
implementation of the Sino-American normalization agreement and create
"two China" or "one Taiwan and one China."
The Taiwan Relations Act after 20 Years:Keys to Past and Future
Success
By Stephen
J. Yates
(The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder , No. 1272, Apr. 16, 1999) Signed
into law on April 10, 1979, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA, Public Law 96-8)
was born of the need of the United States to protect its significant security
and commercial interests in the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan.
Establishing Cross-Strait Military CBMs By Kenneth Allen
(The Henry L. Stimson Center, Apr. 22, 1999) Military confidence-building
measures (CBMs), implemented on a step-by-step basis, could help avoid
another crisis... Over the past year, the idea of military CBMs across the
Taiwan Strait has begun to receive attention in Beijing and Taipei.
How to Deal With Beijing By Avery Goldstein
(Foreign Policy Research Institute, 1 March, 1999) Sino-American
relations are poised for another round of trouble. US policy currently seems
to reflect mood swings more than careful analysis, making the time ripe for a
sober assessment of Sino- American relations.
America's Illogical Rules Make For Dangerous Policy In The Taiwan
Strait By
Carl Ford
(Taiwan Research Institute, February 24, 1999) Ford's analysis examines
how U.S. rules may compromise Taiwan's security - and the implications that
may have for U.S. forces should they ever be needed to quell a Chinese
military action against Taiwan.
The US and Cross Strait Rivalry: Strategic Partnership and
Strategic Ambiguity By Dennis van Vranken Hickey
(February 26-27, 1999) This paper provides a general overview of
Washington's security ties with the two Chinas. It shows how these
relationships, while appearing on the surface to be stable, are presently in
transition.
US-Taiwan Security Ties: Toward the Next Millennium By Dennis Van Vranken
Hickey ( Jan. 4, 1999)
The Chinese Economy: A New Scenario By Murray Weidenbaum &
Harvey Sicherman (Foreign
Policy Research Institute WIRE, Vol. 7, Number 1, January, 1999 )
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