~1998

Understanding Taiwan: Bridging the Perception Gap By Lee Teng-hui
(Foreign Affairs, November/December 1999) The sustained economic growth, unprecedented prosperity, and full democracy achieved by the Republic of China has one drawback: the speed of Taiwan's progress has outstripped prevailing perceptions of what Taiwan is and how it should fit into the global order.

Taiwan's Legal Status: Going Beyond the Unification-Independence Dichotomy By Philip Yang
(CSIS, Sep. 21, 1999) Taiwan ambiguous status is a product of half a century of changing international and cross-strait circumstances. Geopolitical reasons and the PRC's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan are also major factors affecting the status of Taiwan and bilateral relations across the Taiwan Strait.

Americans Look at Asia By William Watts
(Henry Luce Foundation, Oct. 1999) Americans now view China as their principal concern in Asia, according to a new public opinion survey. China, together with Japan and Russia, is seen by most Americans as of "vital interest" to the political, economic, and security concerns of the United States.

New Archival Evidence on Taiwanese "Nuclear Intentions", 1966-1976 By William Burr
(National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book, October 1999) During the late 1960s and mid-1970s, and late 1980s, the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency actively discouraged Taiwan from acquiring critical technology for producing fissile materials. Recently declassified documents provide new and significant details about the efforts to forestall a nuclear-armed Taiwan.

Like Lips and Teeth: Economic Scenarios for Cross-Strait Relations By Gary H. Jefferson
(CSIS, Sep. 21, 1999) Currently, mainland China and Taiwan appear to be engaged in a process of economic integration and political disintegration. This paper argues that this divergence between economics and politics is not sustainable and is particularly threatening to Taiwan's economic prosperity.

The People's Republic of China at Fifty By Robert A. Scalapino
(National Bureau of Asian Research Analysis, Vol. 10, No. 4, October 1999) The People’s Republic of China has achieved tremendous economic accomplishments in the past several decades, but major problems remain.

China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States By Mark A. Stokes
(the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, Sep. 1999) Stokes argues that, while the PLA faces obstacles in fulfilling its modernization objectives, underestimating China's ability to make revolutionary breakthroughs in key areas could have significant ramifications for U.S. national security interests.

The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications
(RAND, Sep. 10, 1999) Criticizing Washington's longstanding strategy of engagement with China and rejecting the containment alternative favored by many of its critics, a team of RAND analysts urged a new U.S. China policy--dubbed "congagement"--designed to preserve hope for cooperative relations while hedging against the possibility of a hostile Chinese challenge to U.S. interests and objectives in the future.

China and the United States: From Hostility to Engagement, 1960-1998 By Jeffrey Richelson
(National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book, September 1999) This electronic briefing book offers critical documentation on key aspects and events in the U.S.-Chinese relationship, including policy and research studies, intelligence estimates, diplomatic cables, and briefing materials.

The Taiwan Relations Act: Durable Agreement or Fraying Framework? A Conference Report By Avery Goldstein
(Foreign Policy Research Institute, Sep. 8, 1999) Participants agreed that the original reasons for drafting and passing the TRA were both legal and political. Participants noted that for two decades the ambiguity of the TRA had served the US interest in neither provoking China nor abandoning Taiwan.

International Relations Theory and Cross-Strait Relations By Amitav Acharya
(The International Forum on Peace and Security in the Taiwan Strait, Taipei Taiwan, July 26-28, 1999) International relations theory often reflects evolving trends in world order. Neo-Realism, may support the argument that the time is now right for Taipei to make a decisive bid for independence.

Taiwan: Malcolm Fraser Defers to Beijing By Robyn Lim
(Defender, Australia Defence Association, Spring 1999) Malcolm Fraser, former Australian prime minister, says that the US should stop helping Taiwan to defend itself by selling it sophisticated weapons.

Taiwan Independence: Image and Reality By Dennis Van Vanken Hickey
(September 1999) The author suggests that, while Taiwan has not declared its de jure independence from China and is unlikely to do so in the short to medium-term future, it is indeed inching closer to it.

The PLA and the Taiwan Strait By June Teufel Dreyer
(July 1999) The PLA's doctrine and strategy toward Taiwan have evolved from straightforward efforts to dispatch soldiers armed with rifles and grenades from small boats to sophisticated psychological warfare operations involving training exercises simulating invasion.

Human Rights in China By Catharin E. Dalpino
(The Brookings Institution, Policy Brief #50, June 1999) The official dialogue on human rights should add economic and social rights to the agenda to give the Chinese a greater stake in cooperation.

 "US Engagement Policy In A Changing Asia: A Time For Reassessment?"
Executive Summary (The National Defense University's 20th Annual Pacific Symposium, March 1-2, 1999) the US security commitment will be an indispensable anchor for Asian security insofar as it is conducive to peace and stability, and that it prevents an arms race in the region.

Final Report of the Taiwan Assembly
(July, 1999) Taiwan and America: How to Contribute to Peace and Prosperity in Asia and the World. How do the peoples of America and Taiwan respectively define comprehensive security and how do they believe that such security can best be assured? What can be done to enhance cross-strait stability and cooperation? ...

Predicting the Future of China
(Time Asia, July 19, 1999) With the People's Republic about to turn 50, TIME and the World Economic Forum convened a panel of experts in Beijing to envision the next half-century.

A Technical Reassessment of the Conclusions and Implications of the Cox Committee Report By James Gordon Prather
(Polyconomics Inc., July 8, 1999) The purpose of this analysis is to compare and contrast the Redacted Report with the consensus of the Experts in order to gain a basis for a proper interpretation of the Evidence on which the Cox Committee made its findings.

Is China Unstable? By Minxin Pei
(Foreign Policy Research Institute Wire, July 1999) In my judgment, the current pessimism about China's short- term prospects is as exaggerated as the previous optimism about its long-term economic outlook. In fact, China is likely to retain its short-term political stability despite many signs of potential turmoil, but will face rising instability if the regime fails to undertake significant political reform in the next decade

Dynamics Of U.S.-China Relations By John Gershman
(The Progressive Response, Vol. 3, No. 21, June 10, 1999) John Gershman of the Institute for Development Research points the way to a more reasonable and principled approach to U.S.-China relations-an approach not dominated by unwarranted fears of a Chinese military threat and not held hostage to those conservative and progressive nationalists who would deny China membership in the WTO and normal trading status with the United States.

Chinese Policies On Arms Control And Proliferation In The Middle East By Gerald M. Steinberg
(May 1999) Among the major powers China has always been the most removed from arms control and non-proliferation activities. In contrast to the US and Russia, it has not been involved in any of the strategic nuclear reduction talks and agreements...

China's Attitude Toward the Taiwan Relations Act By June Teufel Dreyer
(May, 1999) Mainland China has consistently been hostile toward the Taiwan Relations Act. It has interpreted the TRA as the effort of pro-Taiwan forces in the U.S. Congress to subvert the intent if not the actual implementation of the Sino-American normalization agreement and create "two China" or "one Taiwan and one China."

The Taiwan Relations Act after 20 Years:Keys to Past and Future Success By Stephen J. Yates
(The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder , No. 1272, Apr. 16, 1999) Signed into law on April 10, 1979, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA, Public Law 96-8) was born of the need of the United States to protect its significant security and commercial interests in the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan.

Establishing Cross-Strait Military CBMs By Kenneth Allen
(The Henry L. Stimson Center, Apr. 22, 1999) Military confidence-building measures (CBMs), implemented on a step-by-step basis, could help avoid another crisis... Over the past year, the idea of military CBMs across the Taiwan Strait has begun to receive attention in Beijing and Taipei.

How to Deal With Beijing By Avery Goldstein
(Foreign Policy Research Institute, 1 March, 1999) Sino-American relations are poised for another round of trouble. US policy currently seems to reflect mood swings more than careful analysis, making the time ripe for a sober assessment of Sino- American relations.

America's Illogical Rules Make For Dangerous Policy In The Taiwan Strait By Carl Ford
(Taiwan Research Institute, February 24, 1999) Ford's analysis examines how U.S. rules may compromise Taiwan's security - and the implications that may have for U.S. forces should they ever be needed to quell a Chinese military action against Taiwan.

The US and Cross Strait Rivalry: Strategic Partnership and Strategic Ambiguity By Dennis van Vranken Hickey
(February 26-27, 1999) This paper provides a general overview of Washington's security ties with the two Chinas. It shows how these relationships, while appearing on the surface to be stable, are presently in transition.

US-Taiwan Security Ties: Toward the Next Millennium By Dennis Van Vranken Hickey ( Jan. 4, 1999)

The Chinese Economy: A New Scenario By Murray Weidenbaum & Harvey Sicherman (Foreign Policy Research Institute WIRE, Vol. 7, Number 1, January, 1999 )