~ 2000

[ News ] [ Papers ] 

China Tested Long-Range Missile Last Saturday
(Reuters, Dec. 23, 2000) China conducted another test of its intercontinental ballistic missile last weekend in a continuing effort to upgrade its force, a U.S. intelligence official said on Friday. The test of the DF-31, first reported by The Washington Times, appeared successful, although the intelligence official said further analysis was needed.

Report Says China Launches Navigation Satellite
(Reuters, Dec. 21, 2000) China launched a locally made navigation satellite into orbit early on Thursday, the Xinhua news agency said, just a month after Beijing announced grand space ambitions in a policy paper. The Beidou satellite was carried aloft by a Long March 3A rocket launched from the Xichang launch center in China's southwest province of Sichuan, the report said.The launch will complete China's first satellite navigation positioning system, it said.

PLA Now Boasts More Graduate in Its Ranks
(Straits Times, Dec. 12, 2000) The Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army, claims a major success in modernising a once-largely illiterate peasants' army to a fighting force which boasts thousands of eggheads in its ranks. The PLA mouthpiece, the Liberation Army Daily, in an article yesterday, said that there were now 26,000 graduates with doctorates and master's degrees in its ranks of more than three million.

China Runs 2nd Test of Long-Range Missile
(Washington Times, Dec. 12, 2000) China conducted the second flight test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile last month and is preparing for the third test in the next few weeks, a sign Beijing is accelerating its long-range missile program. The flight test of the DF-31 missile was carried out in early November during the visit to China by Gen. Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "This test and plans for the next one show they are moving ahead with their road-mobile long-range missile program," said one Pentagon official.

Focus on Military Spending, Chinese Leaders Say
(AFP, Nov. 10, 2000) Both President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji have warned that military spending must not be sacrificed for economic growth and that reunification with Taiwan remains a pressing objective, state media said yesterday. Mr Jiang made a speech to an air defences meeting on Wednesday, making clear that the government attached huge importance to the ""great goal of unification'' with Taiwan.

Russia-China Military Transfers Get Boost After Talks
(Straits Times, Nov. 4, 2000) High-tech military transfers from Moscow to Beijing will be boosted following talks here yesterday between Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji and his Russian counterpart. According to the communique, Mr Zhu and Russian Premier Mikhail Kasynov signed 14 new pacts and set up sub-committees on space and banking to promote high-tech military transfers from Russia to China and boost sluggish bilateral trade.

China Defends Military Growth; Reiterates One-China Policy
(CNN, Oct. 17, 2000) In a lengthy policy paper issued Monday, China defended its growing military might and again reiterated its threat of force against Taiwan if the island's leadership refuses to recognize Beijing's one-China policy. Responding to foreign concerns about its growing military might, China's Cabinet insisted that defense expenditures remained low compared to other countries and said its military modernization is "purely for self-defense." Beijing also slammed the United States for its role in helping Taiwan militarily, and said the situation with Taiwan "is complicated and grim."

China Holds Massive Military Display
(AP, Oct. 13, 2000) China's ground forces, missile corps and naval units mobilized 10,000 soldiers Friday for their biggest display of weapons and skills since 1964, official media reported. President Jiang Zemin reviewed the display at a training ground in Beijing's western suburbs and issued a call for higher-tech and more realistic training and more creative officers. The four-day display, called a ``military training achievements show'' was staged to promote the People's Liberation Army's ``military strategy for the new era and demonstrate the PLA's preparedness for military struggle.''

Study Sees Possible China Nuclear Buildup
(Washington Post, Aug. 10, 2000) The still-classified study, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, was delivered to the White House this week to assist Clinton in deciding whether to begin erecting a limited antimissile system to defend the U.S. homeland. In a separate, public report on proliferation issues, the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that in 1999 China increased its technical assistance to Pakistan for the development of ballistic missiles and that it continued to provide raw materials and missile technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya.

PLA Practices Net Warfare
(South China Morning Post, Aug. 9, 2000) Troops from the PLA's Nanjing military region carried out a series of warfare simulations through Internet "cyber drills" last month, the People's Liberation Army Daily said yesterday. "The Red Army set up several Web sites to lure hackers of the Blue Army to fall into virus traps," the report said. The "enemy" is being seen as Taiwanese forces - although the official daily has not directly mentioned Taiwan - as the mainland used to refer the island's force as the Blue Army.

China Deploying over 400 Missiles Opposite Taiwan: MND Report
(CNA, Aug. 8, 2000) Beijing has deployed more than 400 guided missiles along the coastal provinces of Jiangsi and Fujian opposite Taiwan, according to the 2000 National Defense Report released by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) on Tuesday. The range of the missiles covers the whole of Taiwan, according to the report. The report further said that the number of missiles will increase by over 600 by the year 2005.

Russia Readies Warship for China
(Washington Times, July 12, 2000) Russia has completed work on a second cruise-missile ship for China and started sea trials for the new vessel two weeks ago, The Washington Times has learned. According to Pentagon intelligence officials, the ship is the second Sovremenny-class advanced warship purchased by Beijing. It was spotted in the Gulf of Finland during the last week of June undergoing sea trials. The ship is likely to be sent to China toward the end of this year.

China Pushing to Modernize Its Military
(Washington Post, June 24, 2000) China is modernizing its armed forces to counter military threats from technologically superior enemies, but "significant shortcomings" in its weapons and training will leave it unable to challenge the United States for "an indefinite period of time," according to a Pentagon study released today.

Taipei Says Sees China Split on Taiwan Policy
(Reuters, May 31, 2000) Taiwan's new defence minister said on Tuesday China's military had taken a hawkish stance towards Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian and his pro-independence party, though its politicians were more rational. "The Chinese Communist military has maintained a rather tense attitude during this period," Minister of National Defense Wu Shih-wen told reporters in his first news conference since taking office on May 20.

U.S. Experts Say China Too Weak To Invade Taiwan
(Reuters, May 13, 2000) U.S. experts campaigning against political moves to boost military ties with Taiwan unveiled satellite images on Friday they said showed Beijing was too weak to invade the democratic island any time soon. They based their analysis on pictures of Chinese air bases within operational strike distance of Taiwan bought from a U.S. company, Space Imaging, using the IKONOS satellite which was launched in September 1999.

China's Air Force to Get New Missile
(Taipei Times, May 10, 2000) The Chinese air force is expected to pose an even greater threat to Taiwan after taking delivery of the first batch of an advanced air-to-air missile (AAM) from Russia in the near future -- a delivery reported yesterday by the Canada-based Kanwa Information Center. The R77 AAM, which China is scheduled to receive from Russia, is an equivalent to the US-made AIM-120 AMRAAM (advanced medium-range air-to-air missile), one of the most lethal weapons in air combat.

Scepticism Over China's Arms Capability
(Straits Times, May 7, 2000) American experts tend to be openly sceptical that China can leapfrog far enough from the weapons and thinking of the 60s and 70s to become a superbly capable force. At a conference arranged by the Jane's Information Group, they identified road-blocks from over-capacity to opposition to change, as China makes its jagged journey to military modernisation.

China Preparing Post-Inaugural Military Exercise
(Taipei Times, April 25, 2000) China is planning to launch the biggest exercises by its armed forces since 1996 along its southeastern coast following Taiwan's presidential inauguration on May 20, sources told Taipei Times yesterday. The exercises, which will likely involve the test-firing of China's M-class ballistic missiles on a scale similar to tests conducted in 1996, are reportedly set to take place not long after Taiwan's May 20 presidential inauguration.

PLA Plays Key Role in Taiwan Strategy
(South China Morning Post, April 13, 2000) Army leaders are being given more input on Beijing's Taiwan policy and are partly responsible for the strident attacks against the island's vice-president-elect, Annette Lu. The Liberation Army Daily yesterday reported heightened training in the regions opposite Taiwan.

Israeli Plane Sale to China Remains in Effect
(AP, April 4, 2000) Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak resisted pressure from U.S. Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen yesterday to cancel a deal that would supply China with a sophisticated airborne-surveillance system. However, Mr. Barak implied that Israel would be more sensitive to U.S. concerns about supplying China with arms in light of recent escalating tensions between China and U.S.-backed Taiwan.

Chinese Bases Near Taiwan Sport Defense Missiles (Washington Times, March 28, 2000) China is fielding new advanced air-defense missiles opposite Taiwan that U.S. intelligence officials say will increase the danger of a military confrontation along the Taiwan Strait, The Washington Times has learned. Construction of two new surface-to-air missile bases is being monitored closely by Pentagon spy agencies. When completed, they will bolster a base at Longtian, near Fuzhou, where several batteries of Russian-made S-300 missiles already are deployed.

China's Military Links Forces to Boost Power
(Washington Times, March 16, 2000) China's military has a new battle management system that will boost its ability to fight wars with combined army, navy and air forces. Details of the new system were contained in a classified Defense Intelligence Agency report sent to senior officials recently. The report said Beijing's newest satellite, launched in January, is a military communications satellite and a major component of the first integrated command, control, communications, computer and intelligence system (C4I).

PLA Fights for Larger Share of Resources
(South China Morning Post, March 13, 2000) Army delegates to the National People's Congress have taken advantage of the leadership's promotion of nationalism to lobby for a bigger share of resources. PLA deputies have filed a record 18 motions at the plenary session of the legislature. The national media has also given ample coverage to the speeches generals have made at the NPC and the just-ended Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

China's Military Fires Daily Blast At Taiwan, Needle At US
(AFP, Mar 7, 2000) Responding to US concern at the 'cacophony' of threats against Taiwan, China Tuesday fired yet another salvo of vitriol at the island with a barb at Washington thrown in for good measure. In what has become a daily ritual as Taiwan's presidential elections on March 18 draw nearer, Defense Minister Chi Haotian hammered out Beijing's uncompromising message to voters that independence would mean war.

China Increases Military Spending
(AP, March 6, 2000) Amid renewed tensions with Taiwan, China said today it will boost military spending by 12.7 percent this year. The spending hike for the People's Liberation Army – or PLA – the world's largest military, comes on top of an increase of the same percentage in last year's budget. In announcing his 2000 budget to the national legislature, Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said $14.5 billion would be spent on defense.

China Insists Army Is Ready to Conquer Taiwan
(AFP, March 2, 2000) China said Thursday its military was capable of invading Taiwan, rejecting the view of Western military analysts that it will be at least five years before it can launch an invasion. "The People's Liberation Army of China is fully capable and determined to maintain the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China," foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao told reporters.

China to Get Second Russian Destroyer This Year
(AFP, Feb. 14, 2000) China will take delivery of a second Russian advanced warship later this year following the arrival of the first Sovremenny-class destroyer on February 11, a state press report said. "A new modern destroyer purchased by our country from Russia passed through the Taiwan Strait and arrived at a certain naval base on the 11th," the Beijing Youth Daily said in the first official dispatch on the ship.

Chinese Purchase of Russian Warship Not a Significant Threat: US
(AFP, Feb. 11, 2000) China's recent purchase of a Russian-made warship does not represent a significant threat or upset the region's balance of power, US officials said Thursday, though a Republican congressman and Taiwan's defense ministry sounded notes of alarm. "We don't believe that the purchase by China of the ship poses a significant threat to the US military posture in Asia," State Department spokesman James Rubin said.

New Chinese Guided-Missile Ship Heightens Tension
(New York Times, Feb. 9, 2000) China's first Russian-built guided-missile destroyer is expected to arrive in the East China Sea as early as this week, enhancing Beijing's ability to threaten American aircraft carriers in any future encounters over Taiwan. Within weeks of the Sovremenny-class destroyer's arrival, Russia is expected to deliver the ship's most formidable weapon, Sunburn antiship missiles specifically designed to penetrate American carrier battle group defenses.

China's Destroyers Worry Taiwan
(AP, Feb. 9, 2000) U.S. ships that have protected Taiwan could be threatened by the delivery of China's first Russian-built Sovremenny-class destroyer. Lin Cheng-yi, a researcher at the state-run Academia Sinica research center in Taipei, said the 8,000-ton destroyer, equipped with SSN22 anti-ship missiles, would definitely pose a threat to U.S. and Taiwanese ships.

New Signs of a PRC Arms Build-Up
(United Daily News, Jan. 27, 2000) A recent research report by PRC military personnel indicates that mainland China's military expenditure for the year 2000 will reach approximately Rmb125 billion (US$15 billion), an increase of between 15 and 19 percent over last year's figures. If the data is accurate, 2000 will be the eleventh straight year in which growth of the mainland's military budget has exceeded 10 percent. Over the past decade, the rapid expansion in the PRC's defense budget has caused concern throughout East Asia.

China Holds High-Seas Drills with Coastal Craft
(Straits Times, Jan. 20, 2000) The Chinese navy has staged unprecedented light-vessel drills using guided missiles more than 250 nautical miles from the country's coast, the official Guangzhou Daily reported yesterday. It was the first time that such light craft -- including fast guided-missile ships, their escort vessels, submarine chasers and corvettes -- conducted war games outside of their traditional coastal waters.

Beijing's Military Links with Moscow Boosted (Reuters, Jan. 18, 2000) Chinese and Russian defence ministers agreed yesterday to step up military co-operation and criticised the United States over its plans to build a national missile defence system. Defence Minister General Chi Haotian was in Moscow on a three-day goodwill visit during which he was due to hold talks with senior military and civilian officials, including acting president Vladimir Putin.

China's First Aircraft Carrier Ready for Service in 2005: Report (AFP, Jan. 12, 2000) China's first locally-built aircraft carrier will be in full service in 2005, with construction expected to start this year. The 4.8 billion yuan (585 million dollar) aircraft carrier is slated to be in the water in 2003, but it will take another two years to have it fully ready for service, the independent Chinese-language Ming Pao daily said citing an unidentified source. The 48,000 tonne vessel will be capable of carrying 24 fighter planes.

China Will Get Russian Ship This Week (Washington Times, Dec. 23, 1999) Russia will deliver the first of two cruise missile destroyers to China this week, giving Beijing a new capability to sink U.S. warships. A Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyer will be delivered to the Chinese navy at a shipyard in St. Petersburg on Saturday — Christmas Day — and will depart for its home port in China two days later, Russia's official Itar-Tass news agency announced on Monday.

China Building Air-Defense Site (Washington Times, Dec. 22, 1999) A U.S. spy satellite photographed construction of a surface-to-air missile base near the Chinese coastal city of Zhangzhou. The Pentagon sees this as part of the continuing military buildup against Taiwan. The exact type of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to be deployed at the base is not known. However, Pentagon intelligence agencies believe the SAM site will have either Russian-design SA-10s or China's indigenous CSA-1s.

China Denies Building Missile Base Near Taiwan (Reuters, Dec. 9, 1999) China denied on Thursday a newspaper report that it was building a second short-range missile base near Taiwan and urged the island to do more to improve bilateral ties.

China Targets Taiwan with 2nd Missile Base (Washington Times, Dec. 8, 1999) The Defense Intelligence Agency has discovered a second Chinese short-range missile base under construction near Taiwan that will significantly increase the threat against the island, The Washington Times has learned. Disclosure of the first missile base by The Times on Nov. 23 prompted an angry exchange between Taiwan and China.

U.S. Secrets Aboard Latest Chinese Sub (Washington Times, Dec. 6, 1999) China is beginning work on a new strategic submarine that will be targeted against U.S. nuclear forces and carry missiles with small warheads similar to American weapons. The People's Liberation Army Navy will start construction in the next several weeks on its first Type 094 missile submarine. The submarine will carry a smaller underwater variant of China's new DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile, which was flight-tested in August.

Chinese Official Visits Israeli Aircraft Plant (New York Times, Dec. 2, 1999) Israeli press reports said the official, Li Peng, personally inspected the Chinese-owned, Russian-made aircraft at Israel Aircraft Industry's headquarters outside Tel Aviv. The military contractor, owned by the Israeli government, is receiving a reported $230 million to equip the plane with its airborne radar system.

Report on Chinese Radar Worries US (Taipei Times, Nov. 30, 1999) China is close to deploying an anti-aircraft defense system that uses technology so advanced it can track even Stealth-type warplanes, Newsweek reported in its latest edition, although analysts in Taiwan dismissed the report as unrealistic.

Taiwan Minister Calls Attention To China's Snowballing Military Outlay (AFP, Nov. 25, 1999) Taiwan's Defense Minister Tang Fei Thursday drew attention to rival China's fast-growing military spending, calling for the island to counter the perceived threat from across the strait. In a report to parliament, Tang said according to Beijing's official figures China's military expenditure rose 11.8 billion renminbi to 104.65 billion renminbi (12.6 billion US) this year, up 12.7 percent from the previous year.

China Space Test Has Military Role (AP, Nov. 22, 1999) China's first successful test of a spacecraft for manned flight also had major military implications, proving China has mastered technology that could defeat U.S. anti-missile defensesy. The same low-power propulsion technology used to adjust a spacecraft's orbit in flight could also be used to alter the path of offensive missiles, helping them evade proposed U.S. anti-missile defense systems known as TMD and NMD.

Chinese Test Craft For Manned Orbits: Space Launch Boosts National Pride (Washington Post, Nov. 22, 1999) Chinese scientists launched the country's first spacecraft designed to carry humans into orbit and guided it back to Earth today, making a key breakthrough in the government's seven-year effort to join the United States and Russia in the elite club of manned space flight.

China Plans for a Stronger Air Force (Washington Post, November 9, 1999) The commander of China's air force said today Beijing would begin transforming the service from a territorial defense force into a more aggressive one with greater capabilities to attack beyond China's borders.

PLA Shows Its Might in Eastern China (Straits Times, Nov. 8, 1999) The drills in Shandong province, the largest since September, involve over 10,000 soldiers and aim at warning Taiwan against splitting the country. The Jinan military region in Shandong province was declared a combat zone and more than 10,000 PLA soldiers conducted a number of military exercises in the eastern province.

Beijing Set to Acquire Israeli Radar System (AFP, Nov. 7, 1999) China is in the process of acquiring an Israeli-made long-range radar system which would strengthen its aerial power in the event of any conflict with Taiwan, according to western military experts. .... Despite repeated warnings by US Defense Secretary William Cohen against the possible transfer of military technology to China by Israel, Sino-Israeli military cooperation has developed in the last few years and is believed to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

China's Electronic Weapons May Menace Taiwan in Five Years (AFP, Oct. 31, 1999) China's developing electronic warfare capability is expected to pose a direct threat to Taiwan in five years, a defense ministry report warned Sunday. The report cited satellite communications and reconnaissance expertise as well as an electronic magnatic pulse -- a state-of-the-art weapon which experts said could wipe out an enemy's command systems in minutes.

Beijing Simulates Long-Range Missile Launch: Report (CNA, Oct. 15, 1999) Mainland China has successfully completed laboratory simulations of a launch of its latest multi-warhead intercontinental ballistic missile which can reach targets in most parts of the United States.

Beijing Agrees to Buy 30 Russian Jets (AFP, Oct. 9, 1999) China has signed a US$2 billion contract to buy 30 advanced Russian Sukhoi-30 fighters, half the number of jets previously reported, a Russian aerospace executive said.

China Says It Can Build Neutron Bomb (Washington Post, July 15, 1999) The Chinese government announced today that it long ago mastered the technology for building a neutron bomb, emphasizing that Chinese scientists developed the weapon on their own, not through the theft of U.S.. nuclear secrets, as has been alleged.

Chinese Army Officers To Get Training To "Win Regional Wars" (AFP, July 11, 1999) The PLA would set up courses for its officers "so as to improve their qualities and skills and help them win any potential future high-tech regional wars and confrontations," Xinhua news agency reported.

With Su-30s, China Would Pose Greater Threat To Taiwan (AFP, June 22, 1999) Taiwan was alerted to reports Tuesday that Russia has resolved to sell 72 advanced Sukhoi-30 jets to China, with the defense ministry here calling for better training and further upgrading of its own fleet.

China Extends "Military Diplomacy" in Face of Regional Crises (AFP, June 18, 1999)

China 'May Wage Information War Against Taiwan' (AFP, May 14, 1999)

China Army Vows to Speed Up Modernisation (Reuters, May 13, 1999)

China Army Urged to Relook Art of War (The Straits Times, May 9, 1999)

China Builds Taiwan's Airport Copy : Report (AP, Apr. 28, 1999)

PLA Air Force Building Projects Take Off (South China Morning Post, Apr. 17, 1999)

China Army Wins Budget Boost for Business Ban (Reuters, Mar. 4, 1999)

China Able to Attack Taiwan by 2005 (Associated Press, Feb. 27, 1999)

China's Missile Test a Warning to US By Francesco Sisci
(Straits Times, Dec. 14, 2000) China's recent test-firing of a new inter-continental ballistic missile is meant to project the Chinese military's prowess following signs that the Americans would be selling lethal weapons to Taiwan, said foreign diplomats in Beijing. It is Beijing's way of expressing its military prowess in response to signs that the US will be selling lethal weapons to Taiwan.

PLA Now Boasts More Graduates in Its Ranks
(Straits Times, Dec. 12, 2000) The Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army, claims a major success in modernising a once-largely illiterate peasants' army to a fighting force which boasts thousands of eggheads in its ranks. The PLA mouthpiece, the Liberation Army Daily, in an article yesterday, said that there were now 26,000 graduates with doctorates and master's degrees in its ranks of more than three million.

China's Foreign Conventional Arms Acquisitions: Background and Analysis By Shirley A. Kan, et. al. (PDF File)
(Congressional Research Service Report for Congress. Washington, DC: The Library of Congress, Oct. 10, 2000)

China's Quest for Energy Security By Erica Strecker Downs
(Rand Corporation, October) China's two decades of rapid economic growth have fueled a demand for energy that has outstripped domestic sources of supply. China became a net oil importer in 1993, and the country's dependence on energy imports is expected to increase significantly over the next 20 years. It is projected that China will need to import some 60 percent of its oil and at least 30 percent of its natural gas by 2020. This scissorslike gap between domestic supply and demand has forced the Chinese government to abandon its traditional goal of energy selfsufficiency and look abroad for energy resources.

Here Is a Welcome Shift by China Toward Military Transparency By David Shambaugh
(International Herald Tribune, Oct. 24, 2000) Publication of China's third Defense White Paper, an official explanation of military policy, is a significant step toward greater openness of the Chinese armed forces. The recent defense paper still lacks transparency in some key areas, notably the military's weapons list, force deployments and defense purchases. But otherwise it comes close to international standards, on a par with similar publications by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia.

U.S. Report Discusses China Weapons Upgrades
(Reuters, Oct. 11, 2000) China has "significantly" upgraded its conventional arms by buying equipment from Russia and other countries in recent years but it is unclear what effect this will have on Beijing's ability to threaten Asian stability, according to a new congressional report released Tuesday.The report, by the Library of Congress' nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, said China's ability to take advantage of its new acquisitions will depend on many factors, including the quality of training to conduct joint military operations.

China: People's Liberation Army After Next Ed. by Susan Puska
(Conference report, American Enterprise Institute and the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute, August 2000) Two key questions underlie the debate over assessing China's military modernization. First, will the PLA's ongoing modernization provide China with significant offensive power projection and/or preemptive capability? If so, by when? Second, does the pace and success of China's military modernization constitute a threat to the U.S. and/or its friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific region?

Report Shows China Military Expanding
(Taipei Times, Sep. 18, 2000) China's military has rapidly advanced its joint-force operations to secure a permanent presence in the Indo-China peninsula, according to a recent US congressional report. The PLA, China's military, showcased the significant progress in its joint-forces during a series of large-scale but low-key exercises between July and August in the Nanjing Military Region facing Taiwan, the report said. In the exercises, "China demonstrates significant new joint-service war-fighting skills `under high-tech conditions' that are steadily altering the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait," it said.

Chinese Arms Exports: Policy, Players and Process By Evan Medeiros and Bates Gill
(Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, August 2000) Global arms proliferation continues to be a key concern for the U.S., particularly the export role of the People's Republic of China. Although China experienced a significant decline in its arms exports in the 1990s, the PRC provides a significant array of lethal weapons and sensitive defense technologies to states around the world, which provide an invaluable means by which to assess the progress and performance of China's military-industrial complex.

Chinese Army Building in the Era of Jiang Zemin By Andrew Scobell
(Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, August 2000) China is adamantly opposed to a TMD for Taiwan to the point that some Beijing researchers have warned that deployment would constitute grounds for China to initiate hostilities against the island. The sensitivity of TMD to China is important for the U.S. to recognize, and it is foolhardy not to take these Chinese threats seriously. Having said this, we must take every opportunity to remind China about the destabilizing and threatening effect of the recent missile buildup it has undertaken in the Taiwan Strait.

Interpreting China's Grand Strategy By Michael Swaine and Ashley Tellis
(RAND Research Brief, 2000) China's stature in the international political power structure has been rising since the late 1970s, largely because of market reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping. If concluded successfully, China's ascent could cause a dramatic power transition within the international system, possibly challenging the U.S. role as the region's preeminent security provider.

Chinese Military Power By Bates Gill
(United States House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, July 19, 2000) China appears to be devoting increased resources not to an "invasion" scenario, but to an "intimidation" and perhaps an "area denial" strategy. In contemplating the Taiwan Strait, the most steadfast military reality is its width: 90 miles of open water. In spite of that persistent tactical conundrum, China has never seriously invested in air or sea lift, amphibious assault capabilities, or credible air superiority assets, let alone the creation of a viable marine corps. It is clear that at this time China does not wish to go toe-to-toe with the U.S. Navy, or even attempt an all-out invasion of the island, which would both be politically and militarily disastrous.

A Model People's Army By Susan V. Lawrence
(Far Eastern Economic Review, July 13, 2000) Two years after the Chinese military was ordered to get out of business, it seems to have largely complied. The result will be a more professional fighting force. The war in Kosovo and developments on Taiwan have led to more policymaking clout and bigger budgets for the military, meaning that relations between the Communist Party and the army have survived divestiture better than once looked likely.

A Model People's Army By Susan V. Lawrence
(Far Eastern Economic Review, July 13, 2000) Two years after the Chinese military was ordered to get out of business, it seems to have largely complied. The result will be a more professional fighting force. The war in Kosovo and developments on Taiwan have led to more policymaking clout and bigger budgets for the military, meaning that relations between the Communist Party and the army have survived divestiture better than once looked likely.

Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China
(U.S. Department of Defense, June 23, 2000) The report addresses (1) China's grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy; (2) developments in China's military doctrine and force structure, to include developments in advanced technologies which would enhance China's military capabilities; and, (3) the security situation in the Taiwan Strait. China’s primary national goal is to become a strong, modernized, unified, and wealthy nation. In the short term (2000-2005), the PLA will have only a limited capability to conduct integrated operations against Taiwan. The PLA conducts interservice exercises at the tactical level, but the services are not fully integrated into a cohesive combat force.

China's Military Capabilities By Frank W Moore
(Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, June 2000) China's military is modernizing, but there are distinct limits to the modernization program. First, the current force structure is so old ... Second, the modernization is proceeding slowly and in a piecemeal manner. Third, China is adding only a handful of modern systems to its inventory. Finally, China's military modernization plan has highlighted the inability of the indigenous arms industry in China to produce the advanced technology weapon systems that the military wants. China may eventually change its policies and invest more financial resources in military modernization; but for the foreseeable future, China's potential for military action in Taiwan and other areas will remain limited.

East Asia 'Imperilled by China's Naval Strength'
(Agence France Presse, May 10, 2000) China's "increasing obsession" with Taiwan is leading to an increase in its naval capabilities, which overshadows all other regional security concerns, a defence analyst says. "China's increasing obsession over Taiwan is casting a growing shadow over the whole of East Asia," said Captain Richard Sharpe in his foreword to defence journal Jane's forthcoming publication of Jane's Fighting Ships 2000-2001.

China Plays a Dangerous Game By Robyn Lim
(International Herald Tribute, May 5, 2000) The main aim of China's minimum nuclear deterrent is to ward off nuclear threats from Russia or the United States. In doing so, it also strengthens its hand in East Asia, where it strives for dominance. Nuclear weapons increase its ability to intimidate neighbors. At the same time, China rails against U.S.-Japanese cooperation in developing theater missile defenses, even though such a system is non-nuclear and defensive. This is in part because China fears that missile defense, by including Taiwan, might effectively integrate the island into the U.S. alliance network.

China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control By Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, Brad Roberts
(Council of Foreign Relations, April 2000) The report concludes that Beijing’s policy choices vis-a-vis its strategic modernization program are likely to make it the nuclear actor whose behavior may matter most to Washington during the coming decade, and certainly more than has been appreciated. The tendency in Washington to dismiss China as an inconsequential nuclear actor must be set aside in favor of a clearer appreciation of China’s significance, both current and potential. Over the coming decade China could very substantially increase the size, sophistication, and overall capability of its strategic force.

Poising for Strike at Taiwan By Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II
(Washington Times, April 13, 2000) Very methodically, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is putting in place the building blocks that will allow it to seize Taiwan by force. Defense Secretary William Cohen says the strategic balance in Asia is at risk. We agree. The PLA's strategy rests on four pillars, the first of which is the elimination of the United States as an intervening factor. Recently, the PLA Navy took delivery of its initial Russian Sovremenny-class destroyer. A second one will arrive in the fall, and there are ongoing negotiations for perhaps four more.

China's Military Chiefs Are Intransigent on Taiwan Policies By Ellis Joffe
(International Herald Tribune, April 3, 2000) In the tension between China and Taiwan, Chinese military leaders are central players. Under President Jiang Zemin, the armed forces have acquired an unprecedented potential for political influence. Lacking personal authority in the military, Mr. Jiang has to negotiate with its leaders to ensure their compliance.

The Four Futures: Competing Schools of Military Thought inside the PLA By Charles F. Hawkins
(March 2000) Chinese military analysts and defense researchers are coming to grips with new concepts of future warfare. For some years now members of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think tanks have been studying “high tech warfare” and what it means to China. Some date the advent of new thinking to the Falklands War and the Becca Valley incursion in the early 1980s, while others point to Operation Desert Storm in 1991. NATO’s war against Serbia last year has triggered the latest round of debate. Three schools of reformist thought have emerged that are arrayed against the traditional-minded thinkers in the PLA.

China War Plan Against Taiwan and U.S. By J. Michael Waller
(Insightmag.com, March 3, 2000) The People’s Republic of China is actively planning a military invasion of Taiwan and is preparing to wage war against the United States — including firing its small arsenal of strategic nuclear missiles on the territory of the United States — if Washington attempts to defend the island. In an internal document (see "China Prepares for War") from the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission to all its regional commanders, Beijing says it hopes to absorb Taiwan through nonviolent means but warns of an “increased possibility for a military solution,” arguing: “It is better to fight now than [in the] future — the earlier, the better.”

China's Threat to Taiwan: Likelihood of Attack Deemed Low By Craig S. Smith
(New York Times, March 7, 2000) China's renewed threat of war against Taiwan has caused anxiety in the West, but Beijing's military options for attacking the island remain limited and impractical, a fact often overlooked in the furor in Washington. Though China's Army outnumbers Taiwan's six to one, the country lacks a transport fleet large enough to ferry a major invasion force across the Taiwan Strait..

High-Tech China Upsets Power Balance By Thomas Crampton
(International Herald Tribune, Feb. 26, 2000) TAIPEI - For much of the last half century, Taiwan's plans to repel an all-out Chinese invasion required updating, but little broad revision. Now, however, military analysts say that high-tech weaponry is rapidly shifting the balance of power, forcing a re-evaluation of strategies and sending Taipei's generals scurrying to Washington in search of the latest weapons.

Russians Help China Modernize Its Arsenal By John Pomfret
(Washington Post, Feb. 10, 2000) China's purchase of two $800 million, Russian-built destroyers, the first of which sailed through the Strait of Taiwan this week en route to a Chinese naval base, highlights a blossoming military relationship between Moscow and Beijing that is raising concerns in Asia and the West. Western experts and Asian diplomats say that over the last year, and especially since the Kosovo war last spring, Moscow's security ties to Beijing have surpassed the simple cash-for-weapons transactions that characterized the relationship for years and are evolving into something more complex and potentially far-reaching.

Patterns in China's Use of Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings By Mark Burles and Abram Shulsky
(RAND, Project Air Force, 2000) The Chinese appear to believe that they possess tactics and methods that make it feasible for them to use force even when the overall military balance is very unfavorable to them, i.e., in situations in which their use of force might otherwise have been thought to be very unlikely.

China's New Naval Strategy
(STRATFOR.COM, Jan. 26, 2000) In the first exercise of its kind, the Chinese People's Liberation Army/Navy (PLAN) conducted maneuvers involving several small missile craft more than 250 nautical miles from the Chinese mainland.. Although the PLAN has openly aspired to develop an ocean-going capacity, most of its efforts have focused on acquiring a larger number of major surface vessels capable of long-range deployments. It seems that now, faced with an unstable security environment and an uncertain economy making it difficult to purchase new major surface combatants, the PLAN may have found a way to utilize its fleet of small attack craft as an effective and less costly - though less capable - interim solution.

Chinese Military Still Embedded in the Economy By Mark Magnier
(LA Times, Jan. 9, 2000) More than a year after the Chinese military was ordered to disband its octopus-like business empire and return to the barracks, its influence over the nation's economy remains deep and widespread. Military experts, diplomats and China watchers estimate that the People's Liberation Army still owns some 10,000 companies selling everything from toilet paper to telecommunications services.

How to Deal with China's PLA Firms By Doug Bandow
(Taipei Times, Dec. 28, 1999) Trade with China has long been a contentious issue in the West. Particularly controversial has been commerce with firms run by the People's Liberation Army. Advocates of maintaining a cordial relationship with China have long viewed the PLA business empire as a barrier to Beijing's complete integration into the international economy.

Don't Push China on Proliferation By Philip C. Saunders and Evan S. Medeiros
(LA Times, Nov. 18, 1999) Imposing sanctions on Beijing now for '92 sales to Pakistan would not serve U.S. security interests. The Clinton administration should admit that China transferred the missiles to Pakistan in the early 1990s, but it should decline to impose sanctions because they would not advance U..S. nonproliferation objectives.

Asia's Nuclear Arms Race By Robyn Lim
(The Asian Wall Street Journal, Nov. 8, 1999) While the arms controllers in the Clinton administration believe that nuclear weapons have declining military and political utility, China, Russia and India all view nuclear weapons as ever more important to their security. China unveiled four new nuclear-capable missiles in its Oct. 1 military parade. A growing fear of Chinese ambition in the region combined with a lack of action in Washington could result in a nuclear arms race in Asia.

China's Foreign Military Relations (need Acrobat Reader) By Kenneth Allen and Eric McVadon
(The Stimson Center, Oct. 19, 1999) This report offers valuable insight into China's impressive military exchange program and provides recommendations for future military exchanges with the People's Liberation Army (PLA). In addition to having previously served as military attachés in Beijing, the authors visited several Asian countries and conducted numerous interviews while conducting research for this report.

China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States By Mark A. Stokes
(the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, Sep. 1999) Stokes argues that, while the PLA faces obstacles in fulfilling its modernization objectives, underestimating China's ability to make revolutionary breakthroughs in key areas could have significant ramifications for U.S. national security interests.

Tensions Across the Strait: China's Military Options Against Taiwan Short of War By James H. Anderson
(Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder, No. 1328, Sep. 28, 1999) The risk of an accidental or deliberate military clash between China and Taiwan is higher than at any time since March 1996, when China attempted to intimidate Taiwan with ballistic missile tests. This July, tensions escalated after Taiwan's President asserted that China and Taiwan should deal on a "state-to-state" level. China vehemently protested this formulation, interpreting it as a move by Taiwan toward independence.

The Myth of Chinese Power By Gerald Segal (Newsweek International, Sep. 20, 1999) Any way you look at it, China matters far less than people think; and as a result the anniversary is nothing to celebrate. The true time for celebration will come when China has engaged in thorough political reforms and genuinely gives its people the ability to stand up tall in the world. 

China Ponders New Rules of 'Unrestricted War' By John Pomfret
(Washington Post, August 8, 1999) Among their sometimes creative and sometimes shocking proposals for dealing with a powerful adversary are terrorism, drug trafficking, environmental degradation and computer virus propagation. The authors include a flow chart of 24 different types of war and argue that the more complicated the combination -- for example, terrorism plus a media war plus a financial war -- the better the results.

China's Hollow Military By Bates Gill and Michael O'Hanlon
(The National Interest, No. 56, Summer 1999) How good is China's military, and how much should the United States care? There are ample grounds for addressing these questions. In 1995, and then again in 1996, the People's Republic of China (PRC) splashed missiles off the Taiwanese coast. It also reinforced military facilities on the Spratly Islands, which China claims although they are hundreds of miles from its shores. More recently, the PRC has undertaken a steady build-up of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan-hardly, it seems, a benign development, particularly when considered alongside President Jiang Zemin's presumed goal of reuniting Taiwan with the Chinese mainland during his tenure in office. And now these questions have been given a new urgency by the espionage allegations contained in the Cox report.

The PLA and the Taiwan Strait By June Teufel Dreyer
(July 1999) The PLA's doctrine and strategy toward Taiwan have evolved from straightforward efforts to dispatch soldiers armed with rifles and grenades from small boats to sophisticated psychological warfare operations involving training exercises simulating invasion, missile tests in the Taiwan Strait, and thinly veiled threats against other countries who might want to aid the Republic of China on Taiwan.

Establishing Cross-Strait Military CBMs By Kenneth Allen
(The Henry L. Stimson Center, Apr. 22, 1999) Military confidence-building measures (CBMs), implemented on a step-by-step basis, could help avoid another crisis... Over the past year, the idea of military CBMs across the Taiwan Strait has begun to receive attention in Beijing and Taipei.

China's Missile Warning
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Proliferation Brief Vol 2. No. 2 February 11, 1999)