EconTransition

China’s Economic Transition

China’s Economic Growth Falls to Nearly 3-year Low
(AP, Apr. 13, 2012) China’s economy grew by a still-robust 8.1 percent in the three months ending in March, down from the previous quarter's 8.9 percent. It was the weakest expansion since the second quarter of 2009 but above the government's 7.5 percent target for the year.

China Posts Massive Trade Deficit
(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 10, 2012) China swung to a massive trade deficit in February, due partly to seasonal distortions but also to faltering demand for the country's exports.

Li Promises Sable Growth
(China Daily, Mar. 2, 2012) China will promote "innovation and opening-up" to maintain long-term, stable and fast economic growth, Vice-Premier Li Keqiang said during a meeting with Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, in Beijing.

China to Put GDP Target Below 8 Pct in 2012-Govt Economist
(Reuters, Jan. 6, 2012) China’s leadership is targeting growth of less than 8 percent in 2012 a senior government researcher wrote in the People’s Daily.

China to Balance ‘Quick’ Growth with Inflation in 2012, Hu Says
(Bloomberg, Dec. 31, 2011) China will balance “relatively quick” economic growth with inflation in 2012, amid rising uncertainty about the world economic recovery, President Hu Jintao said in a speech.

World Bank Chief Affirms China’s Rebalancing
(AFP, Sep. 6, 2011) The head of the World Bank urged China to rebalance its export-driven economy and said taming rising inflation remained the most important challenge for the country in the short term.

China Reports Nation’s First Quarterly Trade Deficit in 7 Years
(Bloomberg, Apr. 10, 2011) China’s first quarterly trade deficit in seven years may ease pressure on the world’s biggest exporter to allow faster appreciation of the yuan.

China’s Surprise Trade Deficit May Help Nation Parry U.S. Yuan Criticism (Bloomberg, Mar. 10, 2011) China’s efforts to parry U.S. criticism that its currency is undervalued got a boost from a report showing the world’s second-largest economy unexpectedly posted a $7.3 billion trade deficit.

China to Open Up Yuan Cautiously, Boost Trade
(Reuters, Jan. 27, 2011) China will carefully open up its yuan to more trading based on market needs and plans to double its level of imports in five years, its commerce minister said.

China to Strengthen Local Demand in Five-Year Plan, Goldman Says (Bloomberg, Oct. 8, 2010) China’s policies over the next five years will focus on boosting domestic consumption and investment to offset an expected slower pace of growth in the global economy that will hurt demand for its goods, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

China Vows to Increase Foreign Imports: Report
(AFP, Sep. 6, 2010) China has vowed to make it easier to import goods into its huge market as Beijing seeks to address controversial trade surpluses with its trading partners, a report said.

China Sees First Trade Deficit in Years
(New York Times, Apr. 10, 2010) China announced on Saturday that it had a trade deficit of $7.24 billion last month, its first monthly trade deficit in nearly six years.

China Trade Surplus Falls As Import Surge Aids World
(Bloomberg, Mar. 10, 2010) China’s trade surplus shrank to the lowest level in a year in February as a surge in imports signaled the nation may start to outshine the U.S. as a destination for the world’s goods.

China Slows Down, and Grows Up By Ruchir Sharma
(New York Times, Apr. 26, 2012) A smooth downshift to 6 or 7 percent growth rate makes China a more normal rival, one the world can do business with and compete head to head against — one that should generate a lot less worry.

China at “Rare” Moment for Reforms: Central Bank Report
(Reuters, Apr. 17, 2012) China is at a promising moment for speeding up interest rate and exchange rate reforms, the central bank’s statistics department said in a report.

Internal-Consumption Engine Poised to Rev? By Tom Orlik
(Wall Street Journal, Apr. 10, 2012) To foster sustainable growth, China needs to shift to a new model, where investment takes a break and household consumption steps up as the new engine. Getting there won't be easy. But there are hints that things are moving in the right direction.

Wen Calls China Banks Too Powerful By David Barboza
(New York Times, Apr. 4, 2012) rime Minister Wen Jiabao of China said on Tuesday that the nation’s biggest state-run banks have too much power and ought to be broken up because they earn far too much money.

Chinese Economy Follows Japan By Jeffrey Frankel
(Project Syndicate, Mar. 29, 2012) China faces a similar demographic trend and also a push to unleash household consumption in order to sustain GDP growth. As in Japan, the downward trend in China’s saving rate will show up in its current account. The laws of international economics still apply.

The Politics of Economic Reform
(The Economist, Mar. 3, 2012) As the Communist Party prepares to hand power to a younger generation of leaders later this year, reformists see a glimmer of opportunity.

China Speeds Economic ‘Transformation’ By Bob Davis
(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 5, 2012) By lowering China's growth target to 7.5% this year, Premier Wen Jiabao has signaled that an era of supercharged expansion may be coming to an end.

A Call for Beijing to Loosen Its Grip on the Economic Reins By David Barboza (New York Times, Feb. 28, 2012) A new study by the World Bank and a Chinese government research organization warns that the country’s economic growth is likely to diminish over the next few decades unless China alters its development model and rethinks the role of government in managing the economy. China 2030

Politics Shelter China’s Economy By Nick Edwards
(Reuters, Feb. 28, 2012) The politics of China’s need for a smooth leadership succession this year provide the best protection against a hard economic landing, regardless of stuttering exports, faltering capital flows, local government debts and lingering inflation risks.

New Push for Reform in China By Bob Davis
(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 23, 2012) An exclusive preview of an economic report on China, prepared by the World Bank and government insiders considered to have the ear of the nation's leaders, offers a surprising prescription: China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms.

China in 2012: Political Challenges in China’s Economic Governance By Willy Lam (China Breif 12(2), Jamestown Foundation, Jan. 20, 2012) Despite the obsession with stability and the penchant for sticking with time-tested means to re-inflate the economy, this year could be a watershed in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration’s long-standing effort to restructure the economy.

FDI Focus Continues to Shift By Ding Qingfen
(China Daily, Jan. 27, 2012) Chinese officials believe that the structure of China's FDI is changing with a move away from low-end manufacturing toward those sectors that could help China transform its economic growth model, including services, high-tech, new-energy and high-end manufacturing.

Why the Chinese Save By Sheldon Garon
(Foreign Policy, Jan. 19, 2012) Contrary to conventional wisdom, China’s high savings rate has everything to do with policy and institutions. Culture, not so much.

Eight Questions: Nick Lardy, ‘Sustaining China’s Economic Growth’ By Tom Orlik (China Real Time Report, Jan. 16, 2012) Mr. Lardy’s new book, “Sustaining China’s Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis,” takes a detailed look at the causes and remedies of the imbalances in the world’s second largest economy.

Will China Break? By Paul Krugman
(New York Times, Dec. 19, 2011) China is emerging as another danger spot in a world economy that really, really doesn’t need this right now.

Rodrik: Don’t Count on China, Other Emerging Markets Taking Over By Michael S. Derby (China Realtime Report, Aug. 29, 2011) Rodrik also said if China does what nations like the U.S. want and boost domestic growth and rely less on exports, growth there could slow.

China Faces Obstacles in Bid to Rebalance Its Economy By Edward Wong (New York Times, Aug. 25, 2011) China has incentives to change its model: its economic policies contribute to wasted resources, vast social inequality and a soaring inflation, which leaders fear will fuel social instability.

Slowdown in China Is Imminent By Barry Eichengreen
(Project Syndicate, Mar. 12, 2011) Are China’s leaders again underestimating their economy’s growth capacity? Or might their forecasts of slower growth just be another Machiavellian ploy to deflect foreign pressure to revalue the yuan? There is reason to think not.

As China Rolls Ahead, Fear Follows By David Barboza
(New York Times, Dec. 13, 2010) A growing number of economists now worry that China could be stalled next year by soaring inflation, mounting government debt and asset bubbles.

China Shifts Away from Low-Cost Factories By David Barboza
(New York Times, Sep. 16, 2010) Companies in China’s industrial heartland are toiling to reinvent their businesses, fearing that the low-cost manufacturing that helped propel the nation’s economic ascent is fast becoming obsolete.

How Serious Is the Chinese Challenge? Part II By Markus Jaeger
(YaleGlobal, Jul. 15, 2010) Greater economic power will shift China’s way once it adopts a flexible currency and reduces dependence on US markets relative to US dependence on Chinese markets.

China Hopes Social Safety Net Will Push Its Citizens to Consume More, Save Less By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Jul. 14, 2010) The country's leaders want to persuade Chinese citizens to spend more and save less, a goal that analysts say could be achieved if the government provided a safety net.

Chinese Factories Now Compete to Woo Laborers By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Jul. 13, 2010) In recent months, as the country’s export-driven juggernaut has been revived and many migrants have found jobs closer to home, the balance of power in places like Zhongshan has shifted, forcing employers to compete for new workers — and to prevent seasoned ones from defecting to sweeter prospects.

Why China Is Putting the Brakes on Export-Driven Growth By Darius Dale (Fortune, Jul. 9, 2010) Over the past several weeks, China has taken a number of steps to increase its citizenry's purchasing power -- none arriving with more fanfare than the de-pegging of the yuan.

China Takes Hands-off Approach to Labor Strikes By Tini Tran
(AP, Jun. 25, 2010) Boosting wages fits in with Beijing's strategy of closing the income gap and promoting more equal growth in coming years, said an analyst at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Political Science in Beijing.

China’s Export Economy Begins Turning Inward By Edward Wong
(New York Times, Jun. 25, 2010) Chinese officials now see the millions of poor workers as the linchpin of China’s move away from a lopsided economic model that relies too heavily on foreign consumption.

In China, Unrest Spreads As More Workers Rally By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Jun. 11, 2010) A series of labor strikes continued to spread across parts of China, as newly emboldened workers pressed for higher wages and better conditions.

Power Grows for Striking Chinese Workers By David Barboza and Hiroko Tabuchi (New York Times, Jun. 9, 2010) After years of focusing on luring foreign investment, Chinese government officials are now endorsing efforts to improve conditions for workers and raise salaries. But analysts say wage pressure is also coming from labor shortages in coastal cities.

Labor Unrest in China Reflects Changing Demographics, More Awareness of Rights By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Jun. 7, 2010) Shifting demographics, including years of effective population control through the government's "one child" policy, have left China short of younger workers.

Foreign Companies Chafe at China’s Restrictions By Keith Bradsher (New York Times, May 17, 2010) China has filed more than a dozen trade cases to limit imports, imposed a series of “buy Chinese” measures and limited exports of some minerals to force multinationals to move factories to China.

Google and China’s Changing Economic Paradigm By Gordon G. Chang (China Brief 10(7), Jamestown Foundation, Apr. 1, 2010) So far, we are seeing a spiteful response from an angry government. And a government that will go to great lengths to make sure the Chinese market is reserved for Chinese competitors. Google’s recent troubles show us that Beijing has a new economic paradigm, and it is not a good one.

Trial of American Puts Spotlight on the Business of ‘State Secret’ in China By Ariana Eunjung Cha (Washington Post, Mar. 4, 2010) Company executives, trade groups and diplomats said Xue's case and two similar ones appear to be part of a broader effort by China over the past few years to use everything at its disposal to promote its own "national champions."

China, Defying Global Slump, Faces a Labor Shortage By Keith Bradsher (New York Times, Feb. 27, 2010) Just a year after laying off millions of factory workers, China is facing an increasingly acute labor shortage.