Comments

~1998

1999: Jan. - June, July - Dec.

2000: Jan. - Mar. , Apr. - June , July - Sept.

Taiwan's Big Economic Headache By Lawrence Chung
(Straits Times, Dec. 30, 2000) After weathering the Asian financial crisis, something is now very wrong with the economy as people are being laid off and the market is plunging. At the turn of the century, what has gone wrong with the usually lively Taiwan economy, which had weathered the recent regional financial crisis successfully? Increasing capital flight, global economic slowdown and, of course, the non-stop political feuds at home can be the answer, analysts suggested.

DPP Should Seek Coalition Partners
(Editorial, Taipei Times, Dec. 29, 2000) Taiwan politics is currently in a rather peculiar state. The Democratic Progressive Party is the ruling party in name only, while the opposition KMT actually rules the country through its majority in the legislature. The DPP could seek the support of the KMT, as well as independent lawmakers who share some of its ideas, and build an open, formal coalition alliance. This might change its "minority government" situation before next year's legislative election and build a more stable political structure.

Promises And Reality: America’s Military in 2001
(Stratfor, Global Intelligence Update, 27 December 2000) George W. Bush faces a global landscape that will make it difficult, if not impossible, to immediately implement the improvements he wants in the American military. From the start of the campaign, Bush took a tough stance on defense. But due to a variety of factors – at home and abroad – the Bush Pentagon team will soon find the new president’s military objectives to be much easier said than done.

Island May Help China, Taiwan
(Associated Press, Dec. 28, 2000) After banning Chinese boats from its shores for 51 years, Taiwan is preparing to do the once-unimaginable on Jan. 1: letting Chinese merchants and tourists sail to the tiny Taiwanese island of Kinmen. It's a small, confidence-building step, but one that could lead to a huge change -- the beginning of direct shipping and air links between China and Taiwan, separated by 100 miles of water and a huge load of ideological baggage.

Country Economic Review: People's Republic of China
(Asia Times, Dec. 22, 2000) In an Asian Development Bank report, the spotlight falls on the People's Republic of China. Its recent economic developments are documented, as are its economic prospects and policy and development issues. Overall, the macroeconomic outlook over 2001-2003 is positive: (i) Robust annual GDP growth in the 7-7.5 percent range; (ii) Moderate annual inflation in the 2-3 percent range, and; (iii) Comfortable external payments position despite a gradually declining current account surplus.

China Is Gaining Leverage on Taiwan By Dougles H. Paal
(International Herald Tribune, Dec. 27 2000) China's leaders have relaxed considerably from the alarmist posture they took when Chen Shui-bian was elected president of Taiwan in March. They now conclude that far from being poised to move the island toward outright independence, Mr. Chen is being squeezed by political and economic forces toward accepting the mainland's terms for talks.

China Should Play a Smaller Role
(Editorial, Taipei Times, Dec. 26, 2000) Taiwan's intellectuals often lament: "China means 100 percent to Taiwan; while Taiwan perhaps perhaps only means 1 percent to China." This means Taiwan has to consider Beijing's response before making almost any policy, but the issue of Taiwan takes up but a few fleeting seconds in the minds of Beijing's leaders in their policy-making process.

US Defense Report Marks a Change By Michael J. Fonte
(Taipei Times, Dec. 26, 2000) "The United States takes its obligation to assist Taiwan in maintaining a self-defense capability very seriously. This is not only because it is mandated by US law in the TRA (Taiwan Relations Act), but also because it is in our own national interest," states the "Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act" report to the US Congress from the Defense Department. The addition of the phrase, "it is in our own interest" to an expression of US support for Taiwan's maintenance of a self-defense capability is a shift possibly as significant as President Clinton's adding the words "the assent of the people of Taiwan" to the usual US policy statement that the resolution of the "Taiwan Strait issue" must be peaceful.

Fueling China's Growth
(Editorial, New York Times, Dec. 24, 2000) Oil has not figured prominently in the delicate relationship between the United States and China. But it soon will. China, the world's most populous nation with 1.3 billion people, will become one of the world's top oil importers in just a few years. This growing reliance on imported oil will further anchor China in the global economy and help shape its ties to the United States. Both nations should be thinking about how to manage this new reality and its strategic repercussions not only in East Asia, but also in places like the Middle East.

'Tiger' Yang Gives China a Hotline to the Bush Clan By Jim Mann
(International Herald Tribune, Dec. 23, 2000) How many countries can send to America an ambassador who has been a personal friend of the Bush family for nearly a quarter-century? Even America's closest allies, such as Britain, Japan and Israel, can't manage to do that. But China can - and will. Early next year, Beijing will dispatch to Washington a new envoy known to most people as Yang Jiechi, China's smart and polished vice foreign minister.

U.S. Scholar Urges Bush to Bring Taipei, Beijing to Bargaining Table
(Central News Agency, Dec. 23, 2000 ) David Shambaugh made the pitch in an article printed in the January/February 2001 issue of the "Foreign Affairs" magazine. Shambaugh warned in his article, titled "Facing Reality in China Policy," that the current impasse between Taiwan and mainland China is fraught with danger, saying it threatens U.S. interests as well as broader peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. While not trying to mediate the intractable problem, Shambaugh said, the incoming George W. Bush administration should actively seek to bring Taipei and Beijing to the negotiating table.

Taiwan Will Be Tricky Task for Bush By William Foreman
(Associated Press, Dec. 21, 2000) Protecting Taiwan without provoking China is one of the trickiest foreign policy tasks for a U.S. leader – one that could test President-elect George W. Bush soon after he takes office. The new president will have to decide whether the United States should sell Taiwan weapons on the wish list the island submits to Washington each year. This month, Taiwanese and Pentagon officials began discussing the arms sales in secret meetings and a decision traditionally comes in April.

East Asia Needs Balance, and Balance Means Missile Defense By Robyn Lim
(International Herald Tribune, Dec. 21, 2000) China and the United States have a growing collision of strategic interest over Taiwan. China has strategic ambition, while Japan has strategic anxieties. East Asia's future will turn on whether Japan and China continue to believe that the United States will guarantee Japan's security. The Bush administration's priority should be to develop Theater Missile Defenses to protect Japan (and U.S. forces based there) from the growing threat of Chinese and North Korean missiles. At stake is nothing less than America's ability to remain an Asia-Pacific power.

Study Looks at Dangers Shaping World of 2015 By Robin Wright
(LA Times, Dec. 18, 2000) "Global Trends 2015," the result of an intensive yearlong study involving all branches of the intelligence community as well as many of America's top thinkers, offers sobering predictions about the "drivers," or major forces, that will determine the world of 2015 and beyond. The dangers are not just from traditional hot spots. Among the report's other predictions: more than 3 billion people, roughly half the world's population, living in "water-stressed" regions, from Southern California to northern China. And while new biotechnology will dramatically lengthen average life spans in rich countries, old diseases will shorten life spans in some African nations by as many as 40 years.

American Military Muscle in Asia – The View from the U.S. Secretary of Defense
(Asia Pacific Media Network, Dec. 19, 2000) How do you look at U.S. relations with China -- and at China as a military force in the region? Cohen: The relationship has to mature to the point where we respect them as an emerging power, and they respect us. But they don't have to be our enemy and we shouldn't start treating them as an enemy; what we ought to do is to say that we have a role to play in Asia.

Thinking Grand Strategy By Paul Monk
(Australian's Review of Books, Dec. 2000) Does the United States of America – and with it the whole Western world – stand at the end of its era of global dominance? Does it suffer from what historian Paul Kennedy called ‘imperial overstretch’? Is it now in important ways at the same point in its history as the British Empire was in 1900? If so, what power or powers could rise to challenge it and bring about a dramatic shift in the balance of global power – a ‘hegemonic transition’? By common agreement, China is the leading candidate.

US Likely to Walk Similar Taiwan Strait Line By Monique Chu
(Taipei Times, Dec. 18, 2000) Ttorkel Patterson, a candidate tipped to become deputy secretary of defense in George W. Bush's administration, says the US' role in cross-strait relations won't undergo any drastic changes during his tenure. Still, Patterson echoes Bush's oft-repeated line that China is a `competitor' of the US, not a `strategic partner.' the US Navy-educated military analyst formerly served in the National Security Council and the Pentagon as well as working at Raytheon, the third largest defense contractor in the US.

For Rice, a Daunting Challenge Ahead By Steven Mufson
(Washington Post, Dec. 18, 2000) There are many ways to view Condoleezza Rice, whom President-elect Bush named as his national security adviser yesterday. Now this multifaceted woman faces a more daunting challenge: setting American foreign policy priorities for a president who has virtually no foreign policy experience and who has rarely traveled outside the United States. She will be grappling with problems from Beijing to Baghdad, Moscow to Monrovia--most outside her area of expertise.

Global Threats Against U.S. Will Rise, Report Predicts
(Washington Post, Dec. 18, 2000) The risk of a missile attack against the United States involving chemical, biological or nuclear warheads is greater today than during most of the Cold War and will continue to grow in the next 15 years, according to a new global threat assessment by the National Intelligence Council. The report, scheduled for release today, also concludes that terrorist attacks against the United States through 2015 "will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties. We expect the trend toward greater lethality . . . to continue."

Taiwanese Consciousness and New Three Noes By Philip Yang
(Taipei Times, Dec. 16, 2000) Two types of "Taiwanese consciousness" are taking shape, "local Taiwanese consciousness" and "status quo Taiwanese consciousness". The former has a "Taiwan-centric" core that strives for the "equality and independence" of Taiwan. "Status quo Taiwanese consciousness" stresses the importance of "Taiwan first," as well as maintaining the status quo and keeping up economic development. Against a backdrop of an increasingly mature democracy and cross-strait economic interdependence, the two types of consciousness must reach a consensus on a new "three noes" attitude for cross-strait relations: "no pro-China, no fear of China, and no anti-China."

Missile Defense High on Bush Agenda
(Associated Press, Dec. 16, 2000) The world according to George W. Bush during the campaign: a stronger U.S. military, a tougher line on Russia and China, a scaled-down peacekeeping role and a missile defense system to protect America, whether the rest of the globe likes it or not. Now, as the president-elect builds his Cabinet and team of advisers, allies and foes wait to see how much of the Bush vision will become reality.

Taiwan's Survival Lies in Security, Democracy, Economy: Scholars
(Central News Agency, Dec. 15, 2000) A group of scholars attending an international seminar in Taipei agreed Friday that Taiwan's security is closely related to regional developments and that its survival lies in security, democracy and economy. Torkel Patterson, a senior researcher with the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the United States wants to continue constructive engagements with mainland China and would not have any conflicts with it. On the other hand, Patterson said, the United States also fully respects Taiwan people's choice of democratic lifestyle and values.

US' Taiwan Policy Needs a Tune-Up By Dennis V. Hickey
(Taipei Times, Dec. 15, 2000) Taiwan's recent election prompted the US to call on both Beijing and Taipei to put aside "old approaches "and show some" flexibility and creativity "in cross-strait relations." Officials stress that the old, anachronistic policies of the past must now be discarded. Ironically, however, there appears to be no flexibility or change in the US' policy toward the Taiwan issue. The US clings stubbornly to policies developed during the 1970s and early 1980s. The US should not jettison its long-standing "one China" policy or abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan's defenses.

Taiwan’s Renewed Military Hope
(Global Intelligence Update, Stratfor, Dec. 14, 2000) President-elect George W. Bush may not have to wait long for an opportunity to chart a new course in foreign policy: Taiwan recently signaled it will renew a request for advanced weaponry previously denied by the Clinton administration. Taiwan’s president, believing Bush will be more receptive, has indicated Taipei will once again press its case for military hardware it deems critical in fending off Chinese attack.

Bush's Looming Asia Challenges By Murray Hiebert and Susan V. Lawrence
(Far Eastern Economic Review, Dec. 21, 2000) With little doubt remaining that George W. Bush will be the next U.S. president, Asia is waiting to see how he will shape his foreign policy. How he deals with Asia will be determined by those among his advisers who win a behind-the-scenes battle for influence. Taiwan could pose the first crisis of the new administration. "The test is going to be in April when they negotiate with Taiwan over weapons sales," says David Lampton. "How far and how provocatively will the new administration move? If Bush decides to sell Aegis destroyers and submarines, it will have a huge impact."

China's Missile Test a Warning to US By Francesco Sisci
(Straits Times, Dec. 14, 2000) China's recent test-firing of a new inter-continental ballistic missile is meant to project the Chinese military's prowess following signs that the Americans would be selling lethal weapons to Taiwan, said foreign diplomats in Beijing. It is Beijing's way of expressing its military prowess in response to signs that the US will be selling lethal weapons to Taiwan.

China Does Not Trust Taiwan President Chen: US Group
(Agence France Presse, Dec. 13, 2000) China does not trust Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian and will not work with him, a group of former US officials said Wednesday following their talks with the Beijing government. Former US National Security Council members Kenneth Lieberthal and Douglas Paal, as well as former US State Department senior China specialist, Winston Lord met with Vice Premier Qian Qichen and China's chief Taiwan negotiator Wang Daohan during this week's visit. "The bad news is that they don't want to work with Chen and the good news is that they are willing to wait and go with the status quo."

Australia Re-Examines Its Defence Role in Asia By John Fletcher
(Straits Times, Dec. 13, 2000) Last week, two important news items emanated from Canberra. These seem unrelated but are, in fact, closely inter-linked. The first related to military spending. A Defence White Paper announced that, over the next 10 years, Australia plans to increase its military budget by A$23.5 billion (S$22 billion), a net increase to around 1.9 per cent of its gross domestic product. The second was that a high-powered Indonesian delegation led by Foreign Minister Alwi Shihab would be coming to Canberra for talks.

Blowback: America's Imperial Overstretch and Its Costs By Chalmers Johnson
(Taipei Times, Dec. 8, 2000) 'Blowback' has become a term of art acknowledging that the unrestrained, often illegal, secret acts of the last remaining superpower in other countries can result in retaliation against innocent American citizens. World politics in the 21st century will in all likelihood be driven primarily by blowback from the second half of the twentieth century-that is, from the unintended consequences of the Cold War and the crucial American decision to maintain a Cold War posture in a post-Cold War world. The US likes to think of itself as the winner of the Cold War. In all probability, to those looking back a blowback century hence, neither side will appear to have won, particularly if the US maintains its present imperial course.

PLA Now Boasts More Graduates in Its Ranks
(Straits Times, Dec. 12, 2000) The Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army, claims a major success in modernising a once-largely illiterate peasants' army to a fighting force which boasts thousands of eggheads in its ranks. The PLA mouthpiece, the Liberation Army Daily, in an article yesterday, said that there were now 26,000 graduates with doctorates and master's degrees in its ranks of more than three million.

China's Numbers Too Good To Be True?
(Straits Times, Dec. 11, 2000) Too much, too fast - and that makes China's statistics too good to be true. A Singapore think-tank, the East Asian Institute (EAI), said yesterday that the abundance of Chinese data and their prompt publication have, ironically, created 'a common feeling outside China about their authenticity and reliability'. 'How can a large developing country like China be able to produce statistics so efficiently?

United Front is Jiang's 'Magic Weapon' By Tony Lau
(South China Morning Post, Dec. 9, 2000 ) The United Front Conference held by the Communist Party this week is seen as part of a strategy to build broad political support for major policy transitions expected to unfold in the near future. The "united front" is the party's phrase to describe the grouping of non-party intellectuals, business people, overseas Chinese, religious leaders and other people of influence.

Asia-Pacific Military Cooperation Is a Good Work in Progress By Admiral Dennis Blair
(International Herald Tribune, Dec. 7, 2000) The armed forces of countries in Asia and the Pacific are under increasing pressure to contribute to a broader set of security concerns, beyond the traditional military arena. This is happening as defense budgets fail to keep up with the growing costs of personnel and equipment. Senior officers from 18 Asia Pacific nations, meeting recently in Honolulu for the third annual Chiefs of Defense Conference, found that collaboration offers some promise for satisfying the rising demands with available force structures.

Asia Dreads a 'Hard Landing' for U.S. By Clay Chandler
(Washington Post, Dec. 7, 2000) The slowdown in U.S. economic growth has cast a pall over hopes for continued recovery in Asia, just as the region was beginning to shake off the effects of the 1997 financial crisis. No one is predicting a replay of the dramatic stock market plunges, currency devaluations and bank failures that ravaged economies here three years ago. But there is broad agreement among analysts and investors on both sides of the Pacific that a sharp downturn in the largest market for Asia's exports would deal a grave blow to the region's already battered economies.

You'll Be Dealing With a Different Asia, Mr. President-Elect By Douglas H. Paal
(International Herald Tribune, Dec. 6, 2000) Whoever wins the United States presidential election will have less time than he thinks to organize American policy for the Asia-Pacific region. China will host the next Apec leaders' meeting, in Shanghai in November. Given the press of other business in his first year, attending this summit is likely to be the only visit by the new US president to the region next year. He must include prior stops in Japan and South Korea, to avoid being seen as bypassing key allies on his way to China.

China a Magnet for Multinationals
(Asia Times, Dec. 6, 2000) Nearly 400 out of the top 500 companies in the world have invested in China - a huge market and also an ideal place for their export bases in the Asia-Pacific region, say companies. This will change the economic development pattern in China and even in the region as a whole, according to experts.

Could Terra-Cotta Warriors Be a Trojan Horse? By Mark Landler
(New York Times, Dec. 6, 2000) Seventeen fearsome warriors from mainland China are set to land here on Dec. 10. While they are 2,200 years old and made of earthenware, the statues are stirring unease in a country that frets constantly about the possibility of being invaded by a more up-to-date Chinese army. On the surface, this exhibition of China's legendary terra-cotta warriors is a simple cultural exchange. In the hothouse climate of Taiwan's relations with the mainland, however, nothing is simple.

China's Trade Hostage By Greg Mastel
(Washington Post, Dec. 5, 2000) At his recent meeting with Asian leaders, President Clinton made news by meeting with China's president and once again calling for a rapid conclusion of China's long march toward membership in the World Trade Organization. But despite the presidential cheerleading, as 2000 runs out there are increasing doubts as to whether China will complete the membership process this year; in some circles, there are even questions about the level of China's interest in WTO membership.

ROC Renewing Military Hardware Ahead of Links with Mainland China
(Central News Agency, Dec. 5, 2000) As the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will likely be admitted to the World Trade Organization early next year, the ROC government is stepping up preparations for opening direct cross-strait trade, mail and transport links in line with WTO requirements. On the other hand, the ROC military is also beefing up its defense capabilities and security deployment because Beijing has intensified its military build-up and still refused to renounce its attempt to use force against Taiwan.

Taiwan Must Engage Mainland to Thrive
(China Post, Dec. 5, 2000) The time and the tide are urging Taiwan to start economic engagement with the mainland as soon as possible in order to thrive. Otherwise, the island will be inviting regression resulting from a self-imposed economic isolation from the world's biggest and most lucrative market. While Taipei is still weighing the pros and cons of having closer economic ties with the mainland, the mainland has already begun integrating with its neighbors.

China Running Out of Steam
(Economist, Dec. 4, 2000) A new obsession is fast replacing China's ancient concern with ensuring enough grain to feed its many mouths - ensuring enough energy supplies to drive its power stations and cars. Volatile international oil prices, rapidly rising demand for energy, and nightmarish air pollution: all have brought the issue of energy security to the top of the government's cluttered agenda.

Taking Charge: A Bipartisan Report to the President Elect on Foreign Policy and National Security
(RAND, Nov. 2000) Bipartisan panel achieves consensus on "selective global leadership," strengthening and recasting alliances, major hikes in defense and foreign affairs spending, changes in Asia policy, On Taiwan, the panelists recommended "stating clearly to both parties...that the U.S. firmly opposes unilateral moves toward independence by Taiwan but will support Taiwan in the event of an unprovoked Chinese attack."

Taiwan's Political Soap Opera By Clay Chandler
(Washington Post, Dec. 2, 2000 ) Except for the politicians, nobody here appears to be taking the stories seriously. But as a recall effort against President Chen Shui-bian loses momentum, his opponents have launched a campaign to discredit him through spectacular gossip, innuendo and rumor. The allegations, dismissed as fiction by officials on both side of the Taiwan strait, followed a flurry of unsubstantiated reports of a liaison between the president and a female aide.

'One China' No Condition for Progress By Su Huan-chih
(Taiwan News, Nov. 30, 2000) What we suggest therefore is the following. 1. The President's Advisory Group on cross-strait Relations should cease discussing the "one-China" issue. The members of the committee should clearly take the national consensus and coalesce it through a democratically held conference. They should take a more macroscopic view of the issues of globalization and the cross-strait issue in establishing policy guidelines. 2. There should be a formation of a "brother alliance" in cross-strait relations which could lead to a new, more amiable situation.

Taiwan Foreign Minister's LA Speech Calls for U.S. Help to Stabilize Security
(Central News Agency, Nov. 29, 2000) The United States should continue to play its historic role to help stabilize the security environment in the Taiwan Strait, ROC Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao made the call in his first public speech in the United States since assuming his current post on 20th May. "Naturally, we expect that the United States will continue to play its historic and positive role to help stabilize the security environment in the Taiwan Strait," Tien said, adding: "This in turn, I believe, will enable Taiwan to pull out of its transition period more quickly and more smoothly."

Taiwanese Debate Whether New Advice Can Restart China Talks By William Foreman
(Associated Press, Nov. 27, 2000) Hopes were high that a recommendation issued over the weekend by a presidential advisory committee would give Taiwan's leader clear advice about how to end a political squabble with China and set up a historic summit. But the much-anticipated wisdom left many skeptical Monday that any progress had been made toward resolving the main question that has blocked Taiwan-China talks: Is this island an inseparable part of "one China?"

China's Rights Stand: Progress or an Irrelevance? By Erik Eckholm
(New York Times, Nov. 27, 2000) Two treaties, which China has signed but not ratified, would in theory require China to embrace principles that could upend Communist rule. Mr. Jiang and his fellow leaders are apparently confident that China can navigate diplomatic dialogues and possibly loophole-ridden treaties. They may feel that they can gain diplomatic credit for cooperating at all, while changing their laws only as they are ready to and finessing any provisions that would threaten the party's monopoly.

Taiwan's Nationalists Face Serious Challenges in New Era
(Associated Press, Nov. 25, 2000) The party that toppled China's last dynasty and controlled Taiwan's presidency for five decades celebrated its 106th birthday on Friday, taking a brief break from its struggle to regroup after last spring's humiliating election defeat. Six months after it lost the presidential vote, the Nationalist Party is getting a slow start on its goals of attracting younger members and shedding its reputation for corruption.

The China Threat By Bill Gertz
(Washington Times, Nov. 24, 2000) Missteps and appeasement by the U.S. government helped China develop into a dangerous global power, according to "The China Threat: How the People's Republic Targets America" (Regnery), a new book by Bill Gertz, national security reporter for The Washington Times. In the first excerpt, he details the hunt for Chinese spies burrowed deep inside the U.S. government. In the second excerpt, he examines the case of an Energy Department official who was punished for exposing Chinese theft of nuclear secrets. In the third excerpt, he examines the growing danger of nuclear war between China and the United States over Taiwan.

US-Sino Missile Pact a Win-Win Deal By Mary Kwang
(Straits Times, Nov. 24, 2000) China's pledge that it will not help any country in any way to develop ballistic missiles, capable of delivering nuclear weapons, is a win-win move for both Beijing and Washington and is set to consolidate Sino-US ties. A big prize for China is that it has led the US to waive sanctions on Chinese companies previously involved in spreading such technology and to resume processing licences for commercial space cooperation, including the launching of US satellites by China.

Need for a Balancer on East Asia's Way to World Eminence By Lee Kuan Yew
(International Herald Tribune, Nov. 23, 2000) In 50 years, China will have a giant economy. Per capita, China's GNP may still be about one-quarter to one-third that of the United States, but its total output and technological competence will make it a heavyweight. That said, any fallout from problems in Indonesia is minor compared with the consequences of a clash of arms across the Taiwan Strait. That could change the course of developments in the whole of the Asia-Pacific region. In Taiwan, with a new president whose party stands for independence, the danger has increased.

A City Ruled by Crime By Susan V. Lawrence
(Far Eastern Economic Review, Nov. 30, 2000) A first set of trials reveals how rampant graft virtually ran the east coast city of Xiamen for years. The scandal highlights Beijing's vulnerability and threatens the fabric of the state. The real significance of the Yuanhua case is political. It shows how deeply corruption tests chains of authority and institutional loyalties in today's China

Brunei 2000: Accomplishments, Stasis, and the Strategic Wisdom of APEC By Jane Skanderup
(Pacific Forum, CSIS, PacNet 47, Nov. 22, 2000) This year's meeting, held in Brunei Darussalam on November 15-16, demonstrated that APEC has yet to realize the vision of its founding fathers: that economic cooperation has the overarching purpose of developing cohesive action on economic issues of abiding mutual interest. Bilateral cooperation is not enough, the founders believed, the region's economic interdependence requires concerted action in order for both developing and developed countries to move forward.

Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy By David A. Shlapak, David T. Orletsky and Barry A. Wilson
(RAND, Nov. 2000)"Our analysis suggests that any near-term Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan would likely be a very bloody affair with a significant probability of failure." "Given that it seems unlikely that Beijing will renounce its "right" to use force to compel unification, a strong Taiwanese deterrent appears to be a necessary component of continued peace on the strait. As Taiwan's most reliable friend and in keeping with the requirements of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the United States will necessarily play a major role in helping the ROC maintain and enhance its defensive capabilities even as the PLA modernizes. Should deterrence fail, Taiwan may find itself in a position where its survival is dependent on some degree of direct U.S. military intervention."

US-China Arms Control and Nonproliferation Cooperation: Progress and Prospects (PDF file)
A conference report from the Third US-China Conference on Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation, held in Beijing, China, 14-15 September 2000. Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, November 8, 2000.

Russia Moves In on Israel's Lost Jet Deal With China By John Pomfret
(International Herald Tribune, Nov. 20, 2000) Four months after the United States pressed Israel to cancel its sale to China of aircraft equipped with powerful early-warning and control radar, Russia appears ready to sell its own weaker version of the system to Beijing, according to sources in China.

EU's China Policy and Possible Impact on Taiwan By Yachung Chang
(Peace Forum, Taiwan Research Institute, Nov. 15, 2000) in Cross-Strait affairs, the EU adopts differentiated political and economic policies toward Taiwan. Politically, it follows U.S. position, supports the "Three-No's Policy," and calls for a peaceful solution to Cross-Strait conflicts. However, as the EU and Taiwan have not reached any agreement comparable to "Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)," it is foreseeable that the EU would be less willing as well as capable to interfere with Cross-Strait affairs.

China and Taiwan-From Flashpoint to Redefining One China By Gary Klintworth
(Parliament House, Australia, Nov. 2000) China and Taiwan are not on a collision course and that indeed, negotiations are the endgame that both sides have in mind. How they proceed, however, is still subject to domestic political variables in both Beijing and Taipei and the perspectives that each side has of the other. ... the gap between the two sides over the meaning of the key issue-'one China'-has narrowed significantly over the last few years. Furthermore the risk of misunderstanding in the two key relationships-China and Taiwan and China and the US-could be minimised if Australia and other like-minded states helped build up trust and understanding in cross-Strait relations and provided some of the neutral ballast that is needed to stabilise an often turbulent Sino-US relationship.

U.S. Now a 'Threat' in China's Eyes By John Pomfret
(Washington Post, Nov. 5, 2000) In 1998, when China issued its second white paper on national defense, representing the consensus view of the government, the document mentioned the United States 10 times, each time positively. Last month, China's third white paper mentioned the United States 13 times. All but two of the references were negative. Faced with what it feels is a shaky security environment and a strong and sometimes arrogant America, Beijing has increasingly viewed the United States as an obstacle to its rise as an Asian power.

'Consensus' on 'One China' Debate Provokes Fierce Discussion By Kam Yiu-yu
(Taipei Times, Nov. 14, 2000) Did the authorities on both sides of the Taiwan Strait previously reach a consensus regarding the "one-China principle"? This major question has incited a fierce dispute between the governments on either side of the Taiwan Sea during the last year. Furthermore, the problem has already spread to Taiwan's domestic political scene, and the confrontations there between supporters of each side are no less passionate than those between Taiwan and mainland China. The 'one China' debate has been hotly talked about here and abroad, and the author offers an opinion on whether there ever has been consensus on the issue.

China: The Silent Debate By John Gershman
(Foreign Policy In Focus, Nov. 2000) In a presidential election in which foreign policy occupies a less than central role, it may come as no surprise that China and U.S.-China relations are virtually absent from the debate. Indeed, there appears to be a more public debate in China about U.S.-China relations than in the U.S. Whoever wins the election, the U.S. public has been let down by a Clinton administration that has been unable to develop a coherent China policy outside of trade liberalization, and betrayed by a presidential campaign unwilling to address major foreign policy issues.

Russia and Taiwan are Tying Closer Bilateral Ties By Arkady Borisov
(Taipei Times, Nov. 13, 2000) The bilateral cooperation between Taiwan and Russia has been increasing recently. Visits to Taipei by both the members of the Russian legislature and Oleg Labov, the chairman of the Moscow-Taipei Economic and Cultural Coordination Commission (Moscow-Taipei Commission) within the time span of a month, has greatly promoted the cooperative relationship between the two nations.

The New Economy Offers APEC New Paths to Free Trade By Julius Caesar Parrenas
(International Herald Tribune, Nov. 13, 2000) It is not the best of times for government officials and business executives attending the annual meetings this week of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. Only six years ago, in the midst of Asia's economic boom, APEC's leaders boldly pledged to achieve free and open trade and investment in the region by 2020. Today, with many of the region's economies facing serious problems and uncertainty about the future, the group's resolve to honor this pledge appears to be faltering.

Bilateral Pacts Alter Trade Equation By Philip Bowring
(International Herald Tribune, Nov. 13, 2000) As the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum assembles in Brunei for its annual meeting, members need take note of a major new development among some of them. With progress on global and regional trade liberalization seeming to stall, east Asian governments are for the first time looking at bilateral deals to maintain the free trade momentum. If successful, these pacts could strengthen prospects for an eventual east Asian free trade group, or lead to bilateral deals with countries outside Asia.

America's Next President Needs a New China Policy By Wu Xinbo
(International Herald Tribune, Nov. 10, 2000) Whoever wins the presidential election in the United States will face a daunting foreign policy task in managing U.S. relations with a resurgent China. Only by adapting to a changing regional political and security landscape will America and China be able to coexist peacefully. Given the relative power imbalance, Washington has far greater leeway than Beijing to adjust its security policy in Asia.

History Hinders China's Bid to Play Big Brother in Southeast Asia
(Agence France Presse, Nov. 8, 2000) When Chinese President Jiang Zemin embarks on a week-long trip to Laos, Cambodia and Brunei this week he will be carrying China's ambition to be a regional power, but will be weighed down by history. It is the first time since the 1960s that a Chinese head of state has paid a visit to any of these countries, but analysts say Beijing's hope of gaining influence in Southeast Asia should not be underestimated.

Recall Threat Has Not Disappeared
(China Post, Nov. 8, 2000) President Chen Shui-bian's public apology on Sunday over an improperly timed announcement by his administration of the decision to scrap the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant appears to have somewhat eased the momentum of a campaign to dismiss him, but the crisis of the leader facing an eventual recall resolution for his removal is far from over. How the recall campaign will develop in the immediate period ahead will, to a great extent, depend on public opinion. The number of people opposing a resolution to dismiss the president has grown far larger than the number supporting such a move, since Chen offered his apology.

US Strikes a Balance with Taiwan Arms Sales By Nadia Tsao
(Taipei Times, Nov. 7, 2000) While some have been highly critical of the administration of US President Bill Clinton and his perceived favoritism of Beijing, arms sales to Taiwan have continued during his terms in office, regardless of China's strong disapproval. This approach -- helping Taiwan meet its defensive needs and appease China -- has been termed "balanced engagement." A review of US-Taiwan military relations during the Clinton era shows that while arms sales to Taiwan were held back to appease China, military support and cooperation has remained strong.

China's Quest for Energy Security By Erica Strecker Downs
(Rand Corporation, Oct. 2000) China's two decades of rapid economic growth have fueled a demand for energy that has outstripped domestic sources of supply. China became a net oil importer in 1993, and the country's dependence on energy imports is expected to increase significantly over the next 20 years. It is projected that China will need to import some 60 percent of its oil and at least 30 percent of its natural gas by 2020. This scissorslike gap between domestic supply and demand has forced the Chinese government to abandon its traditional goal of energy selfsufficiency and look abroad for energy resources.

Taiwan's Leader Under Fire, With Some Out to Unseat Him By Erik Eckholm
(New York Times, Nov. 6, 2000) Less than six months after Chen Shui- bian's inauguration as president, an event widely hailed as a milestone because it was Taiwan's first democratic transfer of power from the long-ruling Nationalists, Mr. Chen and opposing parties are mired in an ugly and divisive stalemate with no end in sight. Not only has Mr. Chen been unable to press his ambitious dreams of reform, but his very survival in office could also be in peril as opponents wave before him the ultimate political weapon, a recall election.

Taiwan Works on Defense Strategy in the Event of Attack from China
(CNN, Nov. 6, 2000) While relations between Beijing and Taipei are at their most strained in years, Taiwan's defense force continues to ready itself for a possible attack from mainland China. A recent emergency drill at Tainan Air Base in southern Taiwan sent pilots scrambling to put their jet fighters in the air. In the event of war, the men in the 443rd Tactical Fighter Wing there would be in the front line.

Taiwan’s Security in the Post-Deng Xiaoping Era By Martin L. Lasater
(Nov. 2000) Peace in the Taiwan Strait is becoming much more problematic in view of political changes in Taiwan and the United States, and the growing national power of China. It is not that peace is impossible to sustain; it is that peace is so difficult to maintain in a situation, like that of the Taiwan issue, in which all concerned parties have vital or important interests at stake with relatively little room for compromise. Taipei, Beijing, Washington, and their various domestic audiences—all have in common a desire to find a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue that is relatively fair and serves the interests of all. But barring some change in the fundamental positions of the ROC, PRC, or the United States, the hope for peace may give way to the exigencies of conflict.

A Grave Test for Taiwan Democracy By Philip Bowring
(International Herald Tribune, Nov. 4, 2000) The threat by Taiwan legislators to impeach the recently-elected president, Chen Shui-bian, says more about the immaturity of constitutional democracy on the island than it does about the gravity of the mistakes of the president. The fundamentals of the crisis lie in the uncertain relationship between executive and legislature in a constitution which has evolved very rapidly, and is still evolving. There is not the complete separation of powers that exist in the U.S. model. Taiwan's system is in principal closer to that of France, where cabinet ministers are also members of Parliament.

Little Change is Likely in the US' Policy on China By Michael J. Fonte
(Taipei Times, Nov. 4, 2000) "Absolutely not," responded Matt Gobush, spokesperson for Leon Fuerth, when asked if Al Gore's National Security Advisor meant to signal a shift by the vice president toward recognizing the PRC's claim that Taiwan is part of China. Fuerth "did not mean to go beyond the established US `one China' policy," stated Gobush, referring to remarks Fuerth made at the State Department on Oct. 26 that were reported in the Taipei Times two days later. The Gore campaign has been careful to say that it will maintain current US policy toward Taiwan, China and their relations

New US Policy Toward China Expected After Presidential Election By Ted Galen Carpenter
(Taipei Times, Nov. 3, 2000) Do not assume that a Bush victory would lead to a more hardline attitude toward China, nor that Gore would diverge much from Clinton's current China policy. In any case, change is coming in Washington's China policy. No administration merely continues the policies of its predecessor, even when the new president comes from the same party. Regardless of which candidate wins the presidential election, the US relationship with both Beijing and Taipei will be different from what it has been in recent years.

The Election of Chen Shui-bian and Its Impact on US Policy toward Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey
(Oct. 2000) The outcome of Taiwan’s 2000 presidential election stunned observers in Taipei, Beijing and Washington. Following the election, the US has accelerated calls for the PRC to adopt a new, flexible approach toward Taiwan. The US should not jettison its long-standing “one China” policy or abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan’s defense. It is likely that any move of this caliber would provoke a highly negative reaction from the PRC and jeopardize peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, it is clear that the time has arrived for Washington to revisit the issue of whether there is more it could do to promote cross-strait dialogue and negotiations.

What to Learn from EU Integration:Some Points on Cross-Strait Development By Yachung Chang
(Peace Forum, Taiwan Research Institute, Nov. 2, 2000) Modeling after the EC’s experience, the subject of “Whole China” can in practice appear in the international society as an incomplete legal person. The two sides then agree to bestow the “Cross-Strait Community” that represents “Whole China” a status of legal person. In the early period, the “Cross-Strait Community” may not own the full rights enjoyed by the two other subjects, and for which the two sides are to negotiate and reach consensus. The joint presence of Cross-Strait Community” with Taiwan and Mainland China in international organizations signifies that there are three coexistent legal subjects.

U.S. Intelligence Report Sees Chinese Spy Threat
(Reuters, Nov. 1, 2000) China had at least 37 spies concentrating on ferreting out U.S. nuclear arms secrets in the mid-1990s and the effort has been "very successful", according to a secret U.S. intelligence report. The report was published in a newly released book, "The China Threat" by Washington Times reporter Bill Gertz, and also details espionage against the United States by Russia, Japan, France, Israel, India and other countries.

Gore's Support for 'One China' Policy Seen Being Stronger Than Current Stance By Charles Snyder
(Taipei Times, Oct. 28, 2000 ) In what was one of the most specific and, to some Taiwan supporters, one of the most disturbing statements on US Vice President Al Gore's policy toward Taiwan, Gore's leading foreign policy advisor, Leon Feurth, said Thursday that Gore would recognize "one China" if elected president next month. Gore believes it is imperative for China and for Taiwan to settle their issues peacefully through dialogue and ultimately in a manner that reflects the free will of the people of Taiwan, Feurth said.

China Tiptoes Around U.S. Elections, But Leans Toward Gore
(Agence France Presse, Oct. 27, 2000) China would prefer Al Gore to win next month's presidential elections in the United States because of fears George W. Bush will take a harder line on Taiwan and a U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD), analysts say. While Beijing has been at pains to maintain a neutral stance in public, its strident criticism of any American interference in Taiwan constantly hovers over Sino-U.S. relations.

Democratic Development in Taiwan: A Model for the PRC? By Bruce J. Dickson
(Pacific Forum, CSIS, PacNet 43, Oct. 27, 2000) Chen Shui-bian's election last spring as Taiwan's first Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president was clearly a nightmare scenario for Beijing. Despite saying he wanted to improve relations with Beijing, Chen was the only major candidate who was not formally committed to Taiwan's eventual unification with the Mainland. Chen, along with the people of Taiwan and interested observers around the world, have been watching closely to see how Beijing responds to this turn of events.

Chinese Leap Forward into Uncertain Future By Thomas L. Friedman
(Straits Times, Oct. 26, 2000) There is a dominant flow in the world today, and it is towards more integration, networking and the global economy; and there is a powerful undertow constantly pulling people back to struggles over who owns which olive tree -- wars over identity, culture, religion and politics. Both are happening at once, and you need to keep them in perspective. Visiting China is a great reminder of that.

Face the Reality of Cross-Strait Relations
(China Post, Oct. 26, 2000) Taiwan has entered a period of economic sluggishness since Chen Shui-bian assumed office as president of the Republic of China. One of the key factors behind this situation is his administration's lack of a workable policy toward mainland China. President Chen Shui-bian and his administration have so far made no clear and firm commitments in dealing with mainland China. The administration has been evasive and indecisive in this aspect.

Sino-Japanese Relations a Muddle By Amako Satoshi
(Taipei Times, Oct. 25, 2000) Although progress in Sino-Japanese and Taiwan-Japanese relations deserves recognition, certain problems cannot be overlooked. First of all, despite a growing economic relationship, the friendship between the peoples of Japan and China is gradually deteriorating. The problem is sometimes reflected in criticism by Japanese of Japan's diplomatic and economic policies toward China.

Here Is a Welcome Shift by China Toward Military Transparency By David Shambaugh
(International Herald Tribune, Oct. 24, 2000) Publication of China's third Defense White Paper, an official explanation of military policy, is a significant step toward greater openness of the Chinese armed forces. The recent defense paper still lacks transparency in some key areas, notably the military's weapons list, force deployments and defense purchases. But otherwise it comes close to international standards, on a par with similar publications by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia.

U.S.-Japan Defense Ties: Excellence Over Arrogance By James E. Auer
(Pacific Forum, CSIS, PacNet 42, Oct. 20, 2000) A report on U.S.-Japan relations by a bipartisan group led by Republican Richard Armitage and Democrat Joseph Nye (both former Assistant Secretaries of Defense) calls for the new U.S. Administration to exercise "excellence without arrogance" in relations with Japan. The October 11, 2000 Institute for National Strategic Studies Special Report on "The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership," envisions a time when Washington and Tokyo are "better able to realize the full potential for cooperation nurtured during the past 50 years."

China: Searching for a Post-Cold War Formula By Bates Gill and Nicholas Lardy
(The Brookings Review, Fall 2000 Vol. 18 No. 4) Of all the bilateral relationships the United States will negotiate in the coming decade, the most critical-and complex-is that with the People's Republic of China. While 1999 marked a new low for U.S.-China ties--especially with the snub of Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji during his Washington visit to finalize U.S.-China World Trade Organization negotiations and the unintentional bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade--the relationship has been on a downward slide since the mid-1990s as the two sides have become increasingly wary of one another's long-term intentions.

Do the Western Media Hate China Threat? By Francesco Sisci
(Straits Times, Oct. 19, 2000) Failure to note change, seen in the reports on China's new Defence White Paper, could slow down actual change and foster a real China threat. Do the Western media hate the China threat, or do they love it? The doubt arises because, despite their public cries against the growth of China, some seem to love and encourage the idea of a huge, furious dragon about to open wide its jaws at the world.

Taiwan-China Relationship Explored By William Foreman
(Associated Press, Oct. 18, 2000) Taiwan's new leaders are being accused of doing something that their communist Chinese foes do: revising history. The hot issue lately is whether Taiwan ever reached a consensus with China in 1992 that allowed the two sides' envoys to hold historic talks – exchanges the rivals are trying to renew. Newspapers have devoted pages to the topic, and legislators and pundits have debated almost nightly during call-in TV and radio shows.

A Chinese Prime Minister Scores Well in Japan By Philip Bowring
(International Herald Tribune, Oct. 18, 2000) Zhu Rongji's visit to Japan has been a foreign public relations triumph for the Chinese prime minister. There has been method and clear purpose behind the mix of charm, bluntness and openness he has displayed during his six days here, from Thursday to Tuesday. China badly needed to its improve relations with Japan. Mr. Zhu has skirted skillfully around the history issue by suggesting that it is up to Japan to decide on making a formal apology for the past. He said he did not hold the Japanese people responsible, but the regime at the time. One should learn from history and not repeat mistakes, he said.

Beware Chinese Promises
(Editorial, Washington Post, Oct. 16, 2000) The project of bringing China into the World Trade Organization is based on the assumption that an arbitrary dictatorship is capable of negotiating a complex deal and then sticking to it. This was always a dicey bet, but the remarkable thing is that China's instinct to renege on its WTO commitments is emerging even before it formally joins the organization. If this is how China behaves now--at a time when accession theoretically still could be blocked--how will it perform once it has been admitted?

China Turns on Charm to Taiwan By John Pomfret
(Washington Post, Oct. 15, 2000) A young Taiwanese opposition legislator, Chou Hsi-wen, traveled to Beijing in August for the first time in years, as a guest of the Chinese government. He was impressed. "They have improved their economy a lot, and their politics as well," said Chou, a member of the People First Party who was part of a delegation that met with some of China's top officials. "They are more open-minded and flexible. They are getting richer; they are getting stronger."

China-Taiwan Relations: Relaxed, but not Re-linked By David Brown
(Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Oct. 2000) The good news in cross-Strait developments is that tensions have eased, the situation has stabilized, and both sides want to resume dialogue. The bad news is that there has been no breakthrough on a formula for resuming dialogue and the prospects for resumption in the coming months are not bright. While PRC Vice Premier Qian has expounded some new ideas, Beijing remains focused on exploiting differences within Taiwan to pressure President Chen to accept its one-China principle. Under criticism, Chen has said he can go no further in accommodating Beijing. Meanwhile, problems at home are demanding more of Chen's attention.

Time to Put Japan Firmly Back on US Radar Screen By Lee Siew Hua
(Straits Times, Oct. 13, 2000) The next US President has to revive the drifting partnership between Washington and Tokyo, and this rejuvenated alliance will lower dramatically the potential for conflict in Asia. American policymakers have made China their prime focus in recent years and neglected Japan in the 1990s. But influential Asian specialists in the US are now advocating a strategic shift towards Tokyo.

Rude Awakening By Julian Baum and Maureen Pao
(Far Eastern Economic Review, Oct. 19, 2000) With a premier's resignation, a depressed stockmarket and a stalled legislature, the new government is looking ahead to a political quagmire. Welcome to democracy. Yet less than five months after inauguration day, Chen's first appointed cabinet has resigned, the stockmarket's weighted index has lost 40% of its value and cooperation with opposition parties seems nonexistent.

U.S. Report Discusses China Weapons Upgrades
(Reuters, Oct. 11, 2000) China has "significantly" upgraded its conventional arms by buying equipment from Russia and other countries in recent years but it is unclear what effect this will have on Beijing's ability to threaten Asian stability, according to a new congressional report released Tuesday.The report, by the Library of Congress' nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, said China's ability to take advantage of its new acquisitions will depend on many factors, including the quality of training to conduct joint military operations.

Address to the National Day Rally By President Chen Shui-bian
(Oct. 10, 2000) As we constitute a new paradigm of democracy for all Chinese societies, we should fearlessly strive to move forward on the path of freedom, democracy and human rights. Yet the role of the Republic of China in the 21st Century should not only be that of "the realizer of democracy", but also that of "a protector of peace in the Asia Pacific" and "an active participant in the international community". In facing the new political scene after the first alteration of political parties in power, we are a bit like the patient after surgery, in need of growing new bone tissue and blood, while at the same time we face both internal and external challenges.

Taiwan's Leader Must Spell out Policies Soon
(Reuters, Oct. 9, 2000) Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, his popularity sagging after a messy four months in office, has bought some breathing room by reshuffling the cabinet and pledging billions to shore up ailing financial markets. But analysts say he must spell out clear economic plans soon to restore confidence in his government.

Taiwan Premiers Switch Questioned By William Foreman
(Associated Press, Oct. 9, 2000) When Tang Fei took the job as Taiwan's premier four months ago, many thought the popular former defense chief would be a stabilizing influence in the island's potentially explosive relationship with neighboring communist behemoth China. But Tang's sudden resignation last week raises questions about whether his departure will derail recent progress in easing tension between Taipei and Beijing.

South China Sea Code of Conduct and Taiwan By Yann-huei Song
(Pacific Forum, CSIS, PacNet 40, October 6, 2000) The ASEAN-China regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, once adopted, could help build up trust, enhance cooperation, and reduce tensions in the Spratlys/South China Sea area. However, it is naive to expect that the adoption of the Code would serve as a safety valve to prevent the claimants from taking unilateral actions or counter-actions to bolster their respective sovereignty and jurisdictional claims in the disputed area, or speed up the process of moving toward eventual resolution.

Overselling the Benefits of WTO for China By Bruce Dickson
(Taipei Times, Oct. 6, 2000) Unlike the earlier vote in the House of Representatives, there was little doubt that the Senate would eventually approve PNTR. The delay had primarily been due to domestic US politics. Senate Republicans wanted to delay this victory for one of President Bill Clinton's most important initiatives in the last year of his administration. They also wanted to hold the vote as close as possible to the November elections to weaken labor's support for the Democrats because organized labor was opposed to PNTR.

TMD and US-China-Japan Cooperation By Wang Qun
(Director of China's Department of Arms Control and Disarmament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Missile Defense Initiative Special Report, Sept. 28, 2000) The excuse employed by the U.S. and Japan in pursuing their TMD joint development program is untenable. TMD is not a relevant answer to threats flowing from missile development and proliferation; on the contrary, it can only constrain the relations of major powers, increase their mistrust and thus impede their cooperation with profound and far-reaching negative impacts on regional peace, security and stability.

A Diplomacy of Fighting Words - An Exclusive Interview with Annette Lu By Tom Plate
(Asia Pacific Media Network, Oct. 5, 2000) Does she have the political face of Asia to launch a thousand mainland Chinese ships toward Taiwan and trigger World War III? Or does the way she faces up to Beijing offer the West an object lesson in how to stare down a bully? It depends on how you view China. Everyone knows that Annette Lu, vice president of Taiwan, has practically made a career of telling off parties with whom she disagrees, most notably the People’s Republic of China.

Confidence-Building Across the Taiwan Strait: Taiwan Strait as a Peace Zone Proposal By I Yuan
(Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Brookings Institute, Sept. 2000) This paper proposes that President Chen advocate a Taiwan Strait Peace Zone (TSPZ). This process would be initiated by bold unilateral steps taken by Taiwan to induce a sense of mutual trust, followed up by distinctly new forms of confidence-building measures (CBMs) as well as arms control mechanisms that could guide future cross-Strait relations.3 Eventually, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would sign a peace agreement formally ending hostility and create a zone of peace in the Taiwan Strait, so as to ensure cross-Straits prosperity and development, as well as the security of the region.

Soldier Tang, Taiwan's Shortest-Serving Premier
(Reuters, Oct. 4, 2000) Tang Fei, a career soldier turned head of government, became Taiwan's shortest-serving premier on Tuesday when he resigned on health grounds after just four and a half months in office. Soon after Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ended the Nationalist Party's five-decade grip on power in the March presidential elections, he named Nationalist stalwart Tang premier. It was a highly popular move.

China's Trade Status Is Not a Magic Bullet By Greg Mastel
(LA Times, Oct. 3, 2000) In the recent Senate debate on extending permanent normal trade relations, or PNTR, to China, passage was often portrayed as the solution to everything from U.S. trade problems with China to Beijing's intolerance of dissent. In fact, these expectations are grossly unrealistic. PNTR may be a modest improvement in U.S. trade policy toward China, but it is far from a panacea for U.S.-China problems.

Taiwan's WTO Bid Hinges on U.S.
(China Post, Oct. 3, 2000) U.S. President Bill Clinton will this week sign into law legislation granting permanent "Permanent Normal Trade Relations" status to the PRC. But before signing, he wants to be reassured: firstly, that the PRC will not retreat from its promise to open up mainland China's market for foreign goods and capital; and secondly, that Beijing will not make a fuss about Taiwan's name.

New Government Faces Many Problems By Wang Yeh-lih
(Taipei Times, Oct. 2, 2000) Ever since President Chen Shui-bian's "government for all the people" came into being, Chen and Premier Tang Fei's administration has faced three constitutional challenges under Taiwan's "semi-presidential system". First, difficulties in exercising executive powers become more complicated as the semi-presidential system skews the balance of authority and responsibility between the president and the premier. The second problem is the poor interaction between the Executive Yuan and the Legislative Yuan. Third, the lack of coordination between the government and the ruling party.

'Silicon' Shields Taiwan from China By Craig Assison
(Straits Times, Oct. 2, 2000) Regardless of whether the US decides to build an East Asian missile shield, Taiwan can take comfort from a ""silicon'' shield that is already in place. It will provide some protection for the island if China seeks a military solution to the Taiwan problem. The silicon shield grows stronger each year. Silicon-based products, such as computers and networking systems, form the basis of the digital economies in the United States, Japan and other developed nations.

Lee Kuan Yew Says Two Sides Must Break Ice
(AFP, Oct. 2, 2000) China and Taiwan must break the ice in cross-strait relations before attitudes on the issue of unification harden, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew was. "It must be broken, the sooner the better," "The worst [that can happen] is to allow the position to drift and attitudes to harden," said Lee, who ended a four-day private visit to Taiwan last week.