~1998

1999: Jan. - June, July - Dec.

2000: Jan. - Mar. , Apr. - June , July - Sept.

April - June 2000

China Will Be Cautious on Taiwan By Ellis Joffe
(International Herald Tribune, June 30, 2000) China will attack the island it regards as a rebel province only if Taiwan's leaders formally declare independence and separate irrevocably from China. A number of compulsions drive China's leaders: nationalism, the linkage between Taiwan and their political legitimacy, the state of relations between conservatives and reformers in the Chinese leadership and the stand of the military.

China Now Has a Role Model to Follow Toward Peace--the Koreas By Joseph A. Bosco
(LA Times, June 27, 2000) Will China follow North Korea as willingly on its path to peace today as it did on the road to war 50 years ago? In 1950, Beijing joined its "little communist brother" in an ill-fated war to unify the Korean peninsula under Pyongyang's "one Korea" system, just as China claimed the right to forcibly incorporate Taiwan under its rule.

China Pop De-Fizzed By Charles Lane
(Washington Post, June 22, 2000) In a time of tension between China and Taiwan, Zhang Huimei brought people together. The diminutive Taiwanese pop singer, who goes by the stage name Ah-mei, sells millions of CD's on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Strike Now to Prevent War in the Taiwan Strait By Richard H. Solomon and Patrick M. Cronin
(LA Times, June 19, 2000) Three decades of relative calm across the Taiwan Strait now may be coming to an end. We are rapidly approaching a decision period in which choices made in Beijing, Taipei and Washington will shape the nature of cross-strait relations--and the security environment in East Asia--for decades to come.

Challenges as China's Communist Leaders Ride the Tiger of Liberalization By Larry M. Wortzel
(Heritage Foundation, June 13, 2000) The People's Republic of China has more than 20 nuclear warheads capable of hitting the United States today, making this country a major concern for many Americans. Furthermore, Chinese military officers have made veiled threats against the United States if America were to intervene should China use military force against Taiwan. Beijing's threats are indeed serious.

Beidaihe's Triple Cocktail Dilemma By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
(South China Morning Post, June 7, 2000) Every summer, the eyes of China watchers are glued to a choice strip of sand in the Bohai Sea called Beidaihe, where Communist Party leaders hold a series of informal meetings on matters of state. Seldom, however, does the agenda mean so much for the nation - and carry such long-term significance - than this year.

New Foreign Policy Fails First Test
(Taipei Times, June 8, 2000) The new government has made a big deal about how it would revamp Taiwan's diplomacy. "Human rights" and "NGOs" were to be the new touchstones of Taiwan's efforts overseas, in contrast to "money diplomacy" and "international vote-buying."

Taiwan Democracy Provides Glimmer of Hope for Mainland Activists
(Agence France Presse, Jun 1, 2000) The Chinese democracy movement has faced a punishing 11 years since the Tiananmen Square massacre, but activists this year have found a glimmer of hope in the blossoming of democracy on Taiwan. ... while democracy has been pushed into the shadows on the mainland, it has thrived in Taiwan to the delight of Chinese dissidents.

What China and Taiwan Should Do By Steve Tsang
(International Herald Tribune, May 18, 2000) China's hardened policy towards Taiwan has turned an inherently delicate and strained situation across the Taiwan Strait into a potentially explosive one. Yet as the former opposition leader Chen Shui-bian prepares to become president of Taiwan on Saturday, there could be a formula for maintaining peace if both sides are pragmatic.

Chen's Dilemma By Julian Baum
(Far Eastern Economic Review, May 25, 2000 ) When Chen Shui-bian is inaugurated as the 10th president of the Republic of China on May 20, his frequent and persistent statements of goodwill toward Beijing will reach a climax. From the time he began his presidential campaign last year, Chen has raised expectations in Taipei and around the world that under his leadership there will be some kind of a breakthrough in the half-century-old deadlock across the Taiwan Strait.

Washington's Role in Cross-Strait Relations
(China Post, May 17, 2000) Recent press reports have said that both Beijing and Taipei have asked the United States to intervene in their long-running political confrontation. Washington, however, moved quickly to state its position: It does not want to assume such a role.

The Taiwan Dilemma: Time for a Change in the U.S. Approach? By Robert L. Suettinger
(Brookings Institution, May 2000) The point is that the United States cannot fix the deeply-rooted antagonisms, differences of political viewpoint and variant interpretations of history that lie at the core of Taiwan-PRC tensions.

US-China Relations: Final Deadline By Nayan Chanda and Susan V. Lawrence
(Far Eastern Economic Review, May 18, 2000) A time bomb is ticking in U.S.-China relations. It isn't Taiwan. And it isn't the forthcoming congressional vote on granting permanent normal trading relations to China. If it explodes, it could badly damage trade relations and poison political ties.

China is Stuck in Its Own Trap By Bruce Dickson
(Taipei Times, May 11, 2000) With its increasingly inflexible approach to cross-strait relations, China has painted itself into a corner. The repeated use of military threats, increased missile deployments, insistence on its definition of the "one China" principle and talk of imposing a deadline for reunification are designed to threaten and intimidate Taiwan, and to warn other countries of China's resolve on the Taiwan issue.

Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China By Nicholas Lardy
(Brookings Institute, May 2000) In what has been described as its most important vote this year, the U.S. Congress will soon decide whether to provide permanent normal trade relations to China. A vote is required because, after 14 years of negotiations, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Containment Under Fire By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
(South China Morning Post, April 26, 2000) The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) anti-containment policy is simple. Firstly, improve relations with its neighbours. Secondly, form strategic alliances with America's erstwhile foes, such as Russia. Thirdly, expand its own global influence by reclaiming the leadership of the Third World.

Convergence on One China Policy? The Democracy Factor By Michael J. Fonte
(Formosan Association for Public Affairs, April 2000) If you listened carefully to statements made by U.S. policy makers over the past two weeks, you would have heard one message about the U.S. "one-China policy" - democracy in Taiwan has dramatically changed the issue.

Korean Summit Will Impact Cross-Strait Ties
(The China Post (Taipei), April 13, 2000) The news that North and South Korea are about to hold an historic summit has attracted attention from around the world in general and from people in eastern Asia in particular. Above all, it has aroused deep concern among the people on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Turbulence Ahead in the Beijing-Taipei-Washington Triangle By Douglas H. Paal
(International Herald Tribune, April 12, 2000) The election of Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan's new president has created hopes in Washington for reduced tensions across the Taiwan Strait. But this view is not shared by China's leadership.

Stand by Taiwan
(Editorial, Washington Post, April 10, 2000) NO peaceful solution to the conflict over Taiwan is possible unless China is deterred from attempting to take the democratic island by force. One critical element in deterring China is the United States' implicit commitment to defend Taiwan from aggression.

Pacific Forum, CSIS

Taiwan Tops the Bilateral Agenda By Bonnie Glaser
(Comparative Connection, Pacific Forum, CSIS, April 2000) The year 2000 opened with a flurry of contacts between American and Chinese officials. The bilateral military relationship, suspended since the U.S. accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, resumed and an agenda for dialogue and exchanges between the two militaries was agreed upon and set in motion.

Cross-Strait Cross-Fire By Gerrit Gong
(Comparative Connection, Pacific Forum, CSIS, April 2000) Chen Shui-bian's victory on March 18, 2000 to become Taiwan's president-elect with 39.3 percent of the vote dramatically changes Taiwan's domestic political topology and thereby the assumptions and framework for China-Taiwan cross-Strait relations.

Taipei Times

Taiwan's Democratization Dilemma By Arthur Waldron
(Taipei Times, May 2, 2000) From a medium- to long-term perspective, Taiwan's democratization greatly contributes to the resolution of issues between Taipei and Beijing, but in the short run it has completely upset the calculations, not only of China but also of the US.

Taiwan the Anchor to US-China Relations By Lin Chong-Pin
(Taipei Times, April 27, 2000) Scholars, analysts and government officials are all debating the relationship that revolves around the axis of Taiwan, China and the US. The interdependence of China and Taiwan is a fact that is not only important to any consideration of the issue, it is really the cornerstone.

Beijing Should Abandon Deadlines By Lee Ying-yuan
(Taipei Times, April 21, 2000) In contrast to Mao's pragmatism, today's Beijing leadership appears overly anxious. The leadership has repeatedly set a timetable which has only served to limit real positive interaction between the two sides of the Strait. Expand and explore a consensus in order to strengthen the foundation for trust.

Charting a Course for Relations with the Middle Kingdom By Ted Galen Carpenter and James A. Dorn
(Taipei Times, April 18, 2000) The only true indicator of China's foreign relations policy is found domestically, in the tug-of-war between the emergence of liberalism and the survival of nationalism. Whichever wins will determine China's future relations with both its Asian neighbors and the West.

Lessons for China from Taiwan's Democratization By Bruce Dickson
(Taipei Times, April 17, 2000) As the KMT lost the presidency, so China's Communist Party lost its hope of surviving an eventual mainland democratization. Economic success, it would seem, is not enough to win elections. Ironically, Chen's victory may reduce the support for political reform in China within the CCP and delay meaningful democratization.

`One China' Holds Too Few Solutions By Lo Chih-Cheng
(Taipei Times, April 11, 2000) In response to President-elect Chen's urging for the resumption of talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, China has thus far taken a "wait and see" policy. Beijing has stated clearly that the door for cross-strait talks will remain closed unless Taiwan returns to the so-called "one China" principle.

LA Times

There Is Common Ground on Taiwan By Marvin Ott
(LA Times, May 8, 2000) There has been much recent reporting and commentary--fully justified--about the growing dangers in the Taiwan Strait. But in all the talk of arms sales and possible military confrontation, almost no attention has been given to a possible diplomatic solution.

Beijing's 'Salesman' Makes a Pitch to Taiwan By Tom Plate
(LA Times, May 3, 2000) Tea leaves can be hard to read, especially when they come from a mainland Chinese garden. Since the March election of the former Taipei mayor Chen Shui-bian as president of Taiwan, worried China-watchers have been looking for the faintest signal from Beijing, even a twitch, that China really isn't prepared to go on the warpath over Taiwan's status.

China Has a Chilling Moment By Tom Plate
(LA Times, April 26, 2000) These days, China is flexing its inflexibility on Taiwan; the authorities are starting to squeeze out any whiff of dissent. True, Beijing hasn't ordered any out-and-out Maoist purge, but something akin to a subtle mass dampening of critics and cynics seems to be underway.

China Has Its Own Version of Business-Versus-Beltway Conflict By Tom Plate
(LA Times, April 19, 2000) Yet China is conflicted, almost like two nations. The smart one concentrates on China's capacity for greatness. The other concentrates on blaming outsiders, especially Western ones, for its problems, which leads to China's historical penchant for shooting itself in the foot. And it may be starting to put powder in its musket now. That's the gruesome and worrisome bottom line.