~1998
1999: Jan. - June, July - Dec.
2000: Jan. - Mar. , Apr. - June , July - Sept. , Oct. - Dec.
2001: Jan. - Mar. ,
Apr. - July, 2001
Asia's Next Crisis:
'Made in China' By Kenichi Ohmae
(Japan Times, July 30, 2001) Two seemingly separate events occurred last
month: Beijing was awarded the right to host the 2008 summer Olympic Games,
and stock prices and currency rates in Singapore, Taiwan and Hongkong hit
their lowest weekly marks since the 1997 Asian crisis. Together, this says a
great deal about the future of Asia - and the immense challenges that the
rest of the world faces from China.
The Security
Environment in Asia By Nicholas Berry
(Center for Defense Information, July 2001) The security environment in Asia
consists of a complex array of latent hostilities and enduring memories,
dating back to World War II. A new study examines the Asian security
landscape, emphasizing China's bid for pre-eminence and the tensions that has
created with the United States and its allies in the region.
Military Cuts Are
Implied in New Strategy
By Thomas E. Ricks
(Washington Post, July 25, 2001) Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and the
Joint Chiefs of Staff have revised the military strategy they adopted just a
few weeks ago, a move that could lead to cuts in the number of U.S. troops,
ships and planes stationed in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and
elsewhere.
The Next Tech
Super Power By Jim Erickson
(Asiaweek, July 27, 2001) With brains, bodies and backing from the top, China
is not only creating a domestic I.T. boom, it is getting ready to be a global
player. China's
chief competitive advantage is scale. The growing purchasing power of the
country's 1.3 billion people is creating a massive platform on which to build
domestic tech industries.
Now a Weakened
Russia Does China's Bidding By Robyn Lin
(International Herald Tribune, July 19, 2001) China and Russia say the
friendship treaty they signed this week is not a new military alliance and is
not pointed at anyone. The first statement is at best a partial truth, the
second is not even that. Despite claims to the contrary, China has rounded up
Russia and pointed it at the United States.
Think Tank Warns of
Problems Facing Beijing
(Central News Agency, July 19, 2001) Beijing faces five economic problems
which may lead to many social problems threatening the peace and order of
mainland China, according to a report by a Taiwan think tank, the Institute
of International Relations (IIR). These economic problems have given rise to rampant corruption,
a widening gap between rich and poor, and a lack of values among the public.
Beijing Rules. But
It's Got A Host of Problems By Robert A. Manning
(Washington Post, July 15, 2001) China may indeed be a major power by 2008.
But the most immediate danger, largely overlooked, may be its economic and
political weaknesses along the way. That's the China we should worry about
between now and the opening of the Games.
Games Put China in
Glass House For the Whole World to See By Sally Jenkins
(New York Times, July 14, 2001) We now have a reason to talk about China and
to examine it more closely for the next eight years. The worth of the Beijing
Games from a human rights standpoint will depend on how aggressive and balanced
the media's reporting will be.
What the Games
Mean for 'New China' By Willy Lam
(CNN.com, July 14, 2001) An Olympic nod for Beijing marks the Middle
Kingdom's formal entry to the community of modern nations. Perhaps even more
than accession to the World Trade Organization, Olympic status means China
can fully interact with the Western world despite its authoritarian
government and suppression of dissent.
Military Scuttles
Strategy Requiring '2-War' Capability By Thom
Shanker
(New York Times, July 13, 2001) The United States is abandoning requirements
that its military be prepared to fight two major wars simultaneously,
according to a classified strategy document. Instead, the new strategy will
order the armed forces to "win decisively" in a single major
conflict, defend American territory against new threats and, at the same
time, conduct a number of holding actions elsewhere around the globe.
US-China Relations
Not Beyond Repair Following Spy-Plane Saga By
Pei Minxin
(Straits Times, July 12, 2001) The return of the partly-dismantled United
States Navy EP-3E surveillance aircraft last week marked the end of an
episode that severely tested the diplomatic skills of a new American
president and the fragility of Sino-American relations. If anything, it
demonstrates that, despite the damaging fallout from the EP-3E incident,
Sino-American relations are not beyond repair.
Toward a Common
Denominator By Shen Fu-hsiung
(Taipei Times, July 12, 2001) The purpose of KMT Chairman Lien Chan's
advocacy of a confederation is to set the tone for cross-strait policy as the
KMT continues its transition into the post-Lee Teng-hui era. Every time
someone in Taiwan's political elite proposes a model for the future of the
two sides of the Strait, it inevitably provokes another wave of
unification-independence arguments. The confederation idea is no exception.
China/Taiwan "Strategic
Ambiguity" Survey Results
(CSIS, July 6, 2001) Under the policy of "strategic ambiguity," the
U.S. does not clearly lay out the terms under which it would intervene in the
defense of Taiwan should the situation in the Strait become militarily
confrontational. This gives the U.S. latitude in dealing with the situation
in the Taiwan Strait. Fifty-seven percent (47 respondents) said yes, the U.S.
should keep strategic ambiguity, 40 percent (33 respondents) said no, and two
were uncertain.
Taiwan Shoulders Greater
Responsibility for Security
(Taipei Times, July 9, 2001) Taiwan now shares a greater measure of
responsibility for ensuring security in the Asia-Pacific region, a fact which
the US has acknowledged in its move to sell advanced weaponry to Taiwan in
this year's arms talks between the countries, President Chen Shui-bian told
Jane's Defence Weekly magazine.
Taiwan's Opposition to
Shift China Stance By John
Pomfret
(Washington Post, July 9, 2001) Taiwan's main opposition party is poised to
endorse the idea of creating a confederation with China, a major policy
change that would intensify an already fractious political battle on the
island between proponents of unification with China and those who want
independence. The policy would then become the party's official platform for
legislative, mayoral and county magistrate elections in December.
Taiwan's Hard Times
Rekindle 'One China' Debate By Mark
Landler
(New York Times, July 8, 2001) For a 78-year-old pensioner with heart
trouble, Lee Teng-hui is not easing up. When Mr. Lee, the former president of
Taiwan, came home from a visit to the United States this week, he greeted
well-wishers by grabbing a megaphone and bellowing, "Let's all have
confidence in our Taiwan." Those seemingly benign sentiments have
propelled Mr. Lee into the white-hot center of Taiwanese politics.
Don't Antagonize China By Samuel R. Berger
(Washington Post, July 8, 2001) President Bush's telephone conversation last
week with Chinese President Jiang Zemin -- a talk that included the issue of
Chinese American detainees -- is, one would hope, the beginning of an effort
to stabilize the relationship of the two countries based on a policy of
principled engagement. The past six months of tough posturing on China by the
administration have not been without cost.
Tokyo's Peace and
the American Agenda By Masaru Tamamoto
(New York Times, July 1, 2001) The self-defense force is restrained from any
aggressive act by Japan's pacifist Constitution. And so, one way or another,
the Americans and Mr. Koizumi are talking about revising the Constitution.
Such a revision would not, as its advocates claim, make Japan a
"normal" country. It is more likely to create a political and moral
disaster. The world would be a better place if Japan were to make a firm
commitment to spreading its Constitutional pacifism.
U.S. Still Must Be
Ready for War x 2 By Michael O'Hanlon
(LA Times, June 21, 2001) For decades, the United States has sought the military
means to fight and win major wars in two parts of the world at the same time.
During the Cold War, the Pentagon prepared for a titanic war in Europe and a
smaller war elsewhere; since then, it has planned for simultaneous conflicts
against Iraq and North Korea. Many suspect that Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld will abandon this time-honored approach to sizing American combat
forces. But that is unlikely.
Time for a Reality
Check in the US By Nat Bellocchi
(Taipei Times, June 20, 2001) The US should look at present policy in light
of the new economic and domestic political realities in the PRC and Taiwan.
China is already locked into the international economic community, just like
Taiwan is. In Taiwan, there is now a better understanding of the limits of
government's power in this democratic political system and that the impact of
this fact is felt in both domestic and external affairs. The central problem
expected after the 2000 election was cross-strait relations.
Lee's Switch Causes
Fear in Taiwan By Mure Dickie
(Financial Times, June 19, 2001) One thing is certain: the lure of politics
has proved too strong to resist for the man who led Taiwan through more than
a decade of tumultuous democratisation and has for nearly a year since then
seemed content to fill his quiet days with golf and charity work. Mr Lee's
plans are unclear, but his motivation appears rooted in a deep dissatisfaction
with the Nationalists.
Political Shift on
Taiwan Hurts China's Unification Push By Philip P. Pan
(Washington Post, June 19, 2001) Taiwan's former president has broken with
his own party to support President Chen Shui-bian, dealing a serious blow to
China's dream of fostering a strong pro-unification political bloc on the
island. The Chinese government has tried for months to isolate Chen, who
before taking office had advocated Taiwanese independence.
A Case of
China Fever By Philip Bowring
(South China Morning Post, June 18, 2001) China fever is raging in Taiwan.
President George W. Bush might have underwritten the United States'
commitment to Taiwan in less-ambiguous terms than did former president Bill
Clinton, and US arms sales to the island republic have boosted Taiwan's
confidence in its medium-term security. But never has Taiwan felt the
gravitational pull of the mainland economy so strongly.
Tom DeLay: a 'Hammer'
for Taiwan By Charles Snyder
(Taipei Times, June 10, 2001) DeLay, 54, is one of the strongest supporters of
Taiwan in Congress as demonstrated last weekend, when he hosted President
Chen Shui-bian during the president's two-day stopover in Houston. While his
staunch conservative anti-communism made him an anti-China activist, it was
his political and personal loathing of president Clinton, whose impeachment
battle he ran, that led him to his activism on behalf of Taiwan.
Japan's New
Reform-Minded Leader: Implications for U.S.-Japan Relations By Balbina Hwang
(Heritage Foundation, June 7, 2001) The election of Prime Minister Koizumi
provides not only a unique occasion for Japan to build a bold new future for
its people, but also an opportunity for Washington to encourage Japan to
institute reforms that would strengthen the bilateral alliance. Cultivating a
mature and lasting partnership should be the long-term objective of U.S.
foreign policy.
Europe United on
Economics; Could China? By Jonathan Clarke
(LA Times, June 4, 2001) For the sake of global stability, Washington must
avoid turning the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle into a zero-sum game. Harvey
Sicherman of Philadelphia's Foreign Policy Research Institute has developed
an elegant framework of "two no's and one yes": No to Chinese use
of force, no to Taiwanese independence and yes to continued negotiation. In
practical terms, the latter goal may be best met by following an example from
the European Union.
China and US Foreign
Policy in the Asia-Pacific: Living with American Dominance By Mike Smith and Nicholas Khoo
(Briefing Paper, Royal Institute of International Affairs, June 2001)
Increasingly, the stability of the Asia-Pacific region appears to hinge on
whether the Chinese can accept the vigorous assertion of American regional
primacy. While this may be a bitter
pill for China to swallow, it may have no choice. Despite occasional irritation at US foreign policy, fears of
Chinese irredentism ensure that Washington is still the hegemon of choice in
the Asia-Pacific.
Taiwan Faces Tough
China Choices By Nan Fang Shuo
(Taipei Times, June 4, 2001) The DPP government has celebrated its first
birthday, and at the party they discussed the worsening economy. If we can't
get down to the essentials and make some economic breakthrough across the
Strait, but instead only try to be clever with far-fetched and irrelevant
ideas like the NT$810 billion government spending package and devaluing the
NT dollar to 40 to the US dollar, then the bottom that Taiwan's economy will
eventually hit may be deeper than anyone can anticipate.
China's Inner Circle
Reveals Big Unrest By Erik Eckholm
(New York Times, June 3, 2001) A startlingly frank new report from the
Communist Party's inner sanctum describes a spreading pattern of
"collective protests and group incidents" arising from economic,
ethnic and religious conflicts in China and says relations between party
officials and the masses are "tense, with conflicts on the rise."
The unusual report, produced by a top party research group and published this
week by a Central Committee press, describes mounting public anger over
inequality, corruption and official aloofness.
Walking the Middle
Path Between US and China By Wang To
(Taipei Times, June 3, 2001) The US has gradually leaned toward Taiwan in the
triangular US-China-Taiwan relationship, as Sino-US ties have become
increasingly tense and antagonistic. Thus, Taiwan has become a powerful
bargaining chip a US seeking to counter China's growing strength. Will the
US' pro-Taiwan position cause cross-strait relations to stagnate or even
deteriorate? Will US arms sales to Taiwan induce a cross-strait arms race?
U.S.-China
Relations Face Both Challenges and Opportunities By Bonnie Glaser
(Nautilus Institute, May 2001) Important goals that Beijing and Washington
should strive to achieve this year include: engage in substantive strategic
dialogue; open a dialogue on managing the strategic transition, including
missile defenses; make further progress in non-proliferation cooperation;
complete Chinese membership in WTO; engage in constructive interaction on
human rights; work jointly to ensure a successful APEC Summit and Bush-Jiang
summit; and continue close coordination and consultation on the Korean
peninsula.
The
U.S. and China in the Early 21st Century By Chu
Shulong
(Nautilus Institute, May 2001) The current danger for building a cooperative
relationship between the U.S. and China is the tendency of growing
misunderstanding and miscalculation in both Washington and Beijing. There are
politicians and strategists who do not fully understand the new world, the
new century, and the new China. It is time to abandon the old thinking and
models of "geostrategy," "zero-sum game," and
"balance of power," and build a new model of major power relations
in the new century.
China's
Political Succession: Four Myths in the U.S.
By Cheng Li
(Foreign Policy in Focus, May 2001) As the Bush administration struggles to
craft a coherent policy toward China, important developments within China are
also taking place that may influence the trajectory of U.S.-China relations.
One of the most important developments is the jockeying within the ruling
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the leadership transition that will take
place at the 16th Party Congress scheduled for September 2002.
Taiwan's PC Makers
Shift to China By Mark Landler
(New York Times, May 29, 2001) As Taiwan's
subcontractors migrate to China, the United States is likely to end up in an
odd position: its main supplier of PC's and other information-technology, or
I.T., gear will be its main strategic adversary. Given the recent rancor
between Beijing and Washington, that prospect unsettles some executives.
"There is a question of economic security," said Morris Chang, the
chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, one of the world's largest
chip makers. "If in the future, China were to stop shipping I.T.
products, that could shut down a large part of the I.T. industry in the
U.S."
Bush Strategy: An
Odd Way of Treating Our Allies By William
Hawkins and Alan Tonelson
(LA Times, May 27, 2001) If Washington wants to compete with China
strategically, it will have to dramatically change its economic policies.
Continuing to pursue today's version of a Sino-American economic agenda can
only fatally undermine America's current security strategy in Asia. China has
made clear that it is competing with the United States for dominance in the
region. Our current economic engagement with China is significantly
strengthening Beijing's hand.
Rumsfeld's
Revolution
(Economist, May 26, 2001 ) In a speech on Friday May 25th, George Bush
revealed some of the thinking behind the sweeping overhaul of the American
military being prepared by Donald Rumsfeld, his ambitious defence secretary.
But the changes are so big that many questions remain. And the political
battles over defence will be fiercely fought.
Win-Win Middle Path
in US Security Strategy in Asia By Felix
Soh
(Straits Times, May 26, 2001) Admiral Blair does not believe that China would
pose a threat to US forces in the Asia-Pacific. The US Navy is vastly
superior to the Chinese maritime force. In any case, according to him,
Chinese military activity in the South China Sea has been fairly restrained in
recent years after they improved fortifications on some islets in the
Spratlys about two years ago. But he said the Chinese build-up of missiles
which target Taiwan ran counter to the aim of ensuring peace in the region.
A New US Military Strategy?
Issues and Options By Carl Conetta and
Charles Knight
(Project on Defense Alternatives, Briefing Memo #20, May 21, 2001) China's
power is growing, but its Pacific regional power projection capacity is still
less than 15 percent that of the former Soviet Union. By comparison,
America's military presence in Asia is virtually unchanged since the Cold
War. The growth in Chinese power is less impressive when placed in regional
perspective: throughout the 1990s it actually lost ground to its neighbors in
terms of relative levels of defense spending.
Taiwan Decides
Timing of Reunification: Bush
(Editorial, China Post, May 1, 2001) While the world is debating the merits
of Bush's strong words for Taiwan's defense, the island is pondering the U.S.
president's message between the lines: "Unification can be delayed, but
not denied. The timing of it will be decided by the people of Taiwan and not
the leaders in Beijing. Before that happens, Taiwan remains a 'part of China'
and a self-governing non-state. The United States rejects forced
reunification and Taiwan independence and will do 'whatever it takes' to see
to it."
Taiwan Has an Outbreak
of Shanghai Fever By
John Pomfret
(Washington Post, Apr. 28, 2001) Shanghai fever has contributed to a fear
among many Taiwanese officials that China in the end will succeed in
swallowing Taiwan with soft tactics, not tough ones. Shanghai fever emerged
in part from the collapse of Taiwan's self-confidence following last year's
presidential election and China's continuing economic growth. But it also reflects
an important shift in how this island of 23 million people views China.
Taiwan Equipped to
Make Peace Initiative
(Editorial, China Times, Apr. 26, 2001) It is incumbent upon Taiwan to take
this first step, as means must be provided for channeling popular sentiment
and giving mainland leaders a way out of their predicament so as to prevent a
backlash against Taiwan. The United States is not the right candidate for
dictating cross-strait relations and the Taiwan issue, yet Taiwan is equipped
to utilize the right incentives to find a way out for cross-strait
relationships and Pacific Rim regional peace.
Everyone Is Watching
Ex-Taiwan Leader in Japan By Mark Landler
(New York Times, Apr. 24, 2001) When the former president of Taiwan, Lee
Teng-hui, took a morning stroll outside his hotel in Osaka today, the tape
was replayed endlessly on television here. Callers dissected his trip on
talk-radio shows, while Taiwan's officials competed to heap praise on Japan's
decision to have him there.But here in Taipei, where Mr. Lee remains a
charismatic political figure, the trip is being celebrated as a plucky
assertion of Taiwan's rights in the face of relentless bullying by the
Chinese government.
Straight Talk on
Taiwan
(Editorial, Washington Post, Apr. 22, 2001) What's important this time around
is to get the principles right. The United States should continue to make
clear that it won't support a Taiwanese declaration of independence or other
rash steps. What may help most is making clear to China that the United
States won't tolerate Taiwan's being swallowed. If Taiwan decides to
associate with China someday, it must be voluntarily, by the will of its
people.
Three-Way Balance
for Peace in East Asia By Tom Plate
(Straits Times, Apr. 21, 2001) April brought the fateful collision between the US spy plane and
a Chinese fighter. However, the subtext (that is, the real issue that is
heating up) is which of the Big Three is to become the boss of East Asia. For
unless Beijing, Washington and Tokyo agree on a sensible power-sharing
arrangement, East Asia will lose its footing and its geopolitical balance.
The balancing act is too much for just two powers; what's needed are all
three players working as a consortium of interests.
Regional Arms Race
Must be Halted By Dennis Hickey
(Taipei Times, Apr. 18, 2001) It is clear that East Asian states are
aggressively seeking to upgrade their existing military capabilities. The
region is now experiencing an arms build-up of unprecedented scale. This
steady accretion of military power in East Asia, in and of itself, represents
a very real challenge to regional -- perhaps even global -- peace and
stability. Washington must acknowledge that the region is indeed engaged in
an arms race that may lead ultimately to miscalculation and bloodshed.
Last
Warning: China Ready to Take Taiwan in 2002 By Alexandr Nemets and Thomas Torda
(NewsMax.com, Apr. 16, 2001) China is fast developing its naval and war
capabilities to engage in a major war in Asia with the purpose of taking
Taiwan by the fall of 2002. Two respected analysts report that shipments of
advanced Russian military equipment will be delivered and in place by late
next year. The experts believe China's plans have already put it on a
confrontation course with its neighbors, and a collision course with the U.S.
China: The Conflict
To Come By Evan Thomas and John
Barry
(Newsweek, Apr. 23, 2001) For Pentagon security planners, the collision was
powerful proof of a long-brewing belief that China’s ambition is to achieve
dominance of the seas around its territory—and to push the United States out.
The evidence to support such a grand plan—a kind of Chinese Monroe
Doctrine—is somewhat circumstantial. Still, after the collision, the view of
China-on-the-march is likelier to take hold in the new, conservative Bush
administration. Beijing’s harassment of U.S. spy planes may achieve exactly
what it doesn’t want—alerting Washington to the weakness of America’s
strategic position in Asia.
Many Voices for
Beijing By Elisabeth Rosenthal
(New York Times, Apr. 10, 2001) What is obviously smart for the pursuit of smooth relations with
Washington is often not fit for domestic consumption in a country where some
high officials are still ambivalent about China's dance with the West, and
where anti-Americanism is now running high. The Chinese military is deeply
conservative, and some officers probably would not mind undermining some of
Mr. Jiang's goals — like joining the World Trade Organization, which they
worry will court social unrest and enhance Western influence.
Taiwan's Place in the
US Psyche By Frankie Leung
(Taipei Times, Apr. 10, 2001) Having done everything within its power,
however, Taiwan may still fail to win total US support. First, China
represents an enormous and yet to be exploited market for US products and
services. China plays that card to its fullest extent. Major US corporations
such as aircraft manufacturers, financial conglomerates and insurance
companies go out of their way to lobby for China. The US will, however,
comply with the TRA by selling military equipment and provisions to Taiwan
for self-defense.
Ghosts Who Refuse to
Rest By Arthur Waldron
(Washington Post, Apr. 2, 2001) China's increasingly abundant economic
banquet of recent years has been haunted by ghosts of the bloody Tiananmen
massacre of 1989. For most of the dozen years since, China's leaders have
tried to ignore those specters. But with President Jiang Zemin and his
colleagues getting ready to retire, those ghosts are looking a lot more
frightening to them, while the frivolity of the banquet has less and less
ability to distract.
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